More AL MVP Talk

As I posted earlier, the next week will be, or at least could be, incredibly intriguing because of the three Twins/White Sox games and the scenarios that could happen because of whatever happens in those games. But there is also something else for Twins fans to watch through the season’s final week, and that is the American League MVP race.

There are a lot of hitters hitting very well this year in the league, but none that are head and shoulders above the rest. I think there are ten guys whose names should be in the discussion, to some degree. In my mind, there are really only five guys that really should be in the discussion. Interestingly, those five players come from just three teams. Both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau from the Twins should be in the discussion. The Red Sox have Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youklis who warrant strong consideration this year. The other is Carlos Quentin of the White Sox who, despite missing the last three or four weeks of the season, still has to be in the discussion. Others that have been solid enough statistically to have their numbers mentioned include Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, Aubrey Huff of the Orioles, Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers and Grady Sizemore from Cleveland.

In my mind, the choice is easy. Even without my obviously homer-ish tendencies, I think that Justin Morneau is the choice for AL MVP. Both Phil Miller of the Pioneer Press and LaVelle E. Neal of the Star-Tribune penned articles on Justin Morneau’s MVP Candidacy over the weekend.  

Let’s start by looking at the more typical statistics to compare the favorites:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	XB Hits	RBI	Runs
Justin Morneau	310	382	518	900	73	128	93
Dustin Pedroia	324	376	492	868	70	79	116
Carlos Quentin	288	394	571	965	63	100	96
Kevin Youklis	311	384	556	940	71	107	87
Joe Mauer	329	415	448	863	40	79	95
Alex Rodriguez	304	393	581	974	68	101	103
Aubrey Huff	311	367	568	934	82	107	95
Josh Hamilton	308	374	538	912	70	124	94
Miguel Cabrera	297	356	548	905	72	125	83
Grady Sizemore	275	381	520	901	76	89	97

If you look at these more basic statistics, you have to wonder how the two Twins are in the discussion. Morneau leads the league in RBI, a statistic many voters put a lot of value upon. Valuable hitters drive in runs, particularly in big spots. I think it is important to look at more than just home runs, so I put extra base hits in the conversation. If you go by that, you understand why Aubrey Huff is mentioned, and again have to wonder why Joe Mauer is included. If OPS is your favorite statistic to show value (getting on base and total bases are important), then Alex Rodriguez is the clear winner. Again, if you just look at these numbers, you can lump all ten of them together and it would be impossible to really pick a winner. So, we have to look a little deeper, at some more advanced statistical analysis.

	RC	Clutch	WS	WPA	VORP
Justin Morneau	124	13.5	28	4.1	51.6
Dustin Pedroia	105	-4.6	23	3.2	59.8
Carlos Quentin	102	3.6	24	3.9	51.3
Kevin Youklis	111	13.2	24	1.6	49.7
Joe Mauer	98	2.6	27	4.6	52.5
Alex Rodriguez	93	-13.2	23	0.3	65.7
Aubrey Huff	117	2.8	23	2.4	62
Josh Hamilton	114	2.4	27	3.8	57.4
Miguel Cabrera	111	2.5	19	3.8	49.4
Grady Sizemore	123	-1.1	27	3.5	67

Alright, here are some other statistics, four at The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus and Fan Graphs.

·         Runs Created shows Justin Morneau at the top of the list, one point ahead of Grady Sizemore, and significantly ahead of the rest of the pack.

·         Clutch is obviously something that shows value, and again, Justin Morneau is at the top of the list, with Kevin Youklis the only one even close.

·         Justin Morneau is also at the top of the Win Shares list, which does factor in defense.

·         Win Probability Added obviously shows which hitters consistently come up big in important situations. Morneau comes in second in that category. Two whom? Teammate Joe Mauer has a big lead in that category.

·         Some will say that Value Over Replacement Player is important to the league MVP discussion. I do think that it has to be considered, but at the same time, the league MVP award is not a position ranking, it’s a league award. That said, this statistic again shows me that Grady Sizemore has been very good on a team that has played quite well down the stretch, although too late. Really, each of the players is doing well in this category. Of course, at 1B, there are more players who do well, so to still have a VORP that high is very impressive.

SUMMARY

Again, I wanted to look at as many names as I could to make sure that my belief that Justin Morneau should be the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player. Everyone has their favorite statistics, so I wanted to look at several that people can use to try to get a feel for each. I don’t want to let any one statistic be the reason to pick a player. However, in my mind, an MVP should:

·         Play most of his team’s games. (I think that all of the above names fit this category, you could argue that Joe Mauer and Carlos Quentin could be deducted a little bit based on games played.)

·         Be a hitter unless something absolutely crazy happens (I don’t care how great Cliff Lee was, he only pitched in about one-fifth of Cleveland’s games. I don’t care how many Saves Francisco Rodriguez racked up this season, he pitched in less than half of his team’s games, and if you want to get into it, he wasn’t even one of the game’s best closers).

·         Be from a contending team, or at least a very good team. I don’t subscribe to the thought that an MVP has to be from a playoff team or a division winner, only that his team be in contention most of the season. (That really eliminates the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Aubrey Huff, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore.)

My Vote (with a week to go in the season)

1.)    Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins

2.)    Kevin Youklis, Boston Red Sox

3.)    Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

4.)    Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

5.)    Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

6.)    Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox

7.)    Aubrey Huff, OF, Baltimore Orioles

8.)    Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

9.)    Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians

10.)                        Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

 

What do you think? Any thoughts?

 

With that, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com,

One Intriguing Week

The Twins beat the Rays on Sunday afternoon to split the four game series with the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Rays. After getting starts of 0.2 Innings from Glen Perkins on Thursday night, 1.2 innings from Nick Blackburn on Friday night, and 4.1 innings from Kevin Slowey on Saturday afternoon, Francisco Liriano gave the Twins exactly what they needed. He went seven very strong innings of one run ball. The Twins bat provided enough offense. Jose Mijares pitched a perfect 8^th, and Joe Nathan pitched a perfect ninth inning for the save. The Twins absolutely needed to win that game. In part, to have a positive feel going into the final week of the season. In reality, because the White Sox beat the Royals 3-0 behind seven shutout innings from John Danks and a two run homer from Paul Konerko. That means that when the Twins and White Sox start their three game series at Metrodome on Tuesday night, the Twins will be trailing by 2.5 games. So, what does that mean the Twins must do in the series to give themselves a chance? (Warning – you may need the Twins and White Sox day off tomorrow too, just to figure out what all of the below says!!)

Games Remaining –

·         Minnesota Twins – vs Chicago White Sox (3), vs Kansas City Royals (3)

·         Chicago White Sox – @ Minnesota Twins (3), vs Cleveland Indians (3), vs Detroit Tigers (1, if necessary)

The Scenarios –

1.)    Twins Sweep White Sox à Twins (87-72), White Sox (86-72)

a.       Twins Sweep Royals à (90-72)

                                                              i.      White Sox have to sweep Cleveland AND beat Detroit to create one game “playoff” versus Twins

b.      Twins win 2 out of 3 versus Royals à (89-73)

                                                              i.      White Sox win division by sweeping Cleveland and beating Detroit.

                                                            ii.      White Sox can win two out of three against Cleveland and beat Detroit to create a one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                          iii.      Twins win division if White Sox win two out of three against Cleveland but lose to Detroit.

                                                          iv.      Twins win division if White Sox win just one out of three.

c.       Twins win 1 out of 3 à (88-74)

                                                              i.      White Sox win division by sweeping Cleveland.

                                                            ii.      If White Sox win two out of three against Cleveland and beat Detroit, they win the division.

                                                          iii.      If White Sox win two out of three against Cleveland and lose to Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                          iv.      If White Sox win one out of three against Cleveland and beat Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                            v.      If White Sox win one out of three against Cleveland and lose to Detroit, Twins win division.

                                                          vi.      If White Sox swept by Cleveland, Twins win the division.

d.      Twins Swept by Royals (87-75)

                                                              i.      White Sox win division by winnings at least two games against Cleveland.

                                                            ii.      If White Sox win one out of three against Cleveland and beat Detroit, White Sox win division.

                                                          iii.      If White Sox win one out of three against Cleveland and lose to Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                          iv.      If White Sox swept by Cleveland and beat Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                            v.      If White Sox swept by Cleveland and lose to Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

2.)    Twins Win Two out of Three against White Sox à White Sox (87-71), Twins (86-73)

a.       Twins Sweep Royals à (89-73)

                                                              i.      White Sox win division by sweeping Cleveland.

                                                            ii.      White Sox win division by winning two out of three against Cleveland and beating Detroit.

                                                          iii.      If White Sox win two out of three but lose to Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins

                                                          iv.      If White Sox win one out of three and beat Detroit, on-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                            v.      Twins win division if Cleveland sweeps White Sox.

b.      Twins Win 2 out of 3 versus Royals à (88-74)

                                                              i.      White Sox win division by winning at least two out of three against Cleveland.

                                                            ii.      If White Sox win one out of three and beat Detroit, White Sox win division.

                                                          iii.      If White Sox win one out of three and lose to Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                          iv.      If White Sox get swept by Cleveland but beat Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                            v.      If White Sox get swept by Cleveland and lose to Detroit, Minnesota wins division.

c.       Twins Win 1 out of 3 versus Royals à (87-75)

                                                              i.      White Sox win division if they win at least one game against Cleveland.

                                                            ii.      If White Sox swept by Cleveland and beat Detroit, one-game playoff versus Twins.

                                                          iii.      If White Sox swept by Cleveland and lose to Detroit, Twins win division.

d.      Twins Swept by Royals à (86-76)

                                                              i.      White Sox win the division.

3.)    Twins Win One out of three against White Sox à White Sox (88-70), Twins (75-74)

a.       Twins Must Sweep Kansas City AND White Sox must be swept by Cleveland and lose to Detroit to force a one-game playoff with the Twins.

4.)    Twins Swept by White Sox à White Sox (89-69), Twins (84-75)

a.       White Sox will have clinched the division title Thursday night. NO opportunity to still make the playoffs.

 

Please note that this is not official. I am, in fact, certain that I may be missing a scenario or two. But I think it illustrates the situation pretty clearly for the final week.

 

Any thoughts?

PODCAST UPDATE – I will be participating again in Marty Andrade’s Weekly Twins Podcast tonight (Sunday) at 8:00. You can listen live from 8-9 at www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Andrade. There is a chat room, so you can ask questions that way. You can also Call-In if you would like. I think it will be a very interesting show. There is plenty of Twins talk to be discussed, so if you get a chance, listen live, otherwise, you will be able to hear it the rest of the week at the same site.  

With that, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com,