SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects – Part 3 (11-20)

1 Oct

Before proceeding with the Top 50 Prospects list, I wanted to mention that I will be posting my “So… Now What?” blog early next week. It’s a fun exercise that you may want to consider doing for yourself before the offseason really begins. If you’re interested, I would encourage you to check out two great sources to help… First, Josh Taylor discusses The State of the Twins Roster. It’s really well written and could help you start thinking about moves you would make. Secondly, you will definitely want to read The Twins Geek today for a 2009 Twins General Manager Cheat Sheet.

Also, if you missed it last night, be sure to listen to the Weekly SethSpeaks.net Podcast. The guest was Phil Miller, the Twins Beat Writer for the Pioneer Press. We had a fun conversation, for ½ hour, on many Twins topics. I learned a lot about the team, including the leadership of Justin Morneau, the personality of Denard Span, dealing with the White Sox and much more. I then spent the final twenty minutes talking to myself about my playoff predictions as well as my Top 50 Twins prospects. I even gave those listeners a little early preview of my choices for prospects 11 through 20. Check it out if you have a chance, or head phones!

Today we continue the SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects series with Part 3, numbers 11-20. You can check out Part 1 (Prospects 31-50) and Part 2 (Prospects 21-30). Again, I want to encourage discussion of this list. Feel free to e-mail me at SethSpeaksNet@hotmail.com or Comment here. For information on the purpose of this list and some of the criteria used to develop it, click here. 

So, with all that, let’s get to today’s Twins Prospects:

SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects

 

 

# 20 – Brian Duensing – LHP – 25 (2/22/83)

2008 Teams: Rochester Red Wings, Team USA in Olympics

Acquired: Twins 3rd round draft pick in 2005 out U of Nebraska

Brian Duensing has now spent about a year and a half in Rochester. With other organizations, his 2008 season, which essentially ended with a Bronze medal at the Beijing Olympics, would likely have resulted in a September call up. In the Twins organization, it wasn’t enough. In the Twins organization, Duensing has a lot going against him. First and foremost, the Twins starting five are all three to five years from free agency. Secondly, they’re all pretty good. The Twins will likely put Duesning on the 40 man roster this winter to protect him, and I think they should. First of all, I think that the fifth starter job could be up in the air next spring. Second, it is wise for the Twins to have a guy at Rochester ready to make starts for the Twins in case of injury or disappointing performance.  The other thing going against Duensing is that there are the likes of Kevin Mulvey, Anthony Swarzak, Yohan Pino and Jeff Manship who also could be ready to contribute to the Twins in the next year or so. Duensing is in a tough spot. His 2008 numbers don’t look that great, but his problem all year was the first inning. Overall, he was 5-11 with a 4.28 ERA, a full run higher than 2007 when he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA in 19 AAA starts. In 138.2 innings, he struck out just 77. Duensing has too much talent to not protect him. But unless there is a trade, expect Duensing to report back to Rochester again in 2009. (I expect him to be dealt)

2009 Projection: starting in Rochester most of the season, possible 6th or 7th starter if he pitches well.

Potential: solid #4-5 pitcher

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

 

# 19 – Steven Tolleson – IF – 24 (11/1/83)

2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 5th Round Pick in 2005 out of U. of South Carolina

Overlooked by prospect people, myself included, Steve Tolleson had an excellent 2008 season in New Britain. If not for a couple of lingering injuries in the season’s second half, he might have moved up to Rochester. In 93 games this year, he hit .300/.382/.466 with 28 doubles, a triple and nine home runs. He has good speed and had 12 stolen bases in 18 attempts.  He had 27 stolen bases in 37 attempts in 2007 in Ft. Myers. Like his father Wayne Tolleson, a big leaguer in the ‘80s, Steve is fully capable at both middle infield positions and even got time in CF in 2008. Unlike his father, I think Steve will be able to hit at the big league level as well. There is no reason for him to go back to New Britain in 2009. He should spend the entire season in Rochester and maybe get a September recall.

2009 Projection: middle infielder in Rochester, possible September call up

Potential: utility infielder

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

 

# 18 – Mike McCardell – RHP – 23 (4/13/85)

2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 6th round pick in 2007 out of Kutztown University of Pennsylvania

How McCardell spent the entire 2008 season in Beloit is beyond me. As should have been expected based on his dominant debut in 2007 at Elizabethton, McCardell dominated the Midwest League all season.  He went 9-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 21 starts. In 135.1 innings, he walked just 25 and struck out 139 batters. So, why wasn’t he promoted? Well, he did miss about a month of the season with an arm injury, so certainly that made promoting him too quickly a risk. However, it didn’t take him long to start dominating again, and he continued to do that throughout the year. Secondly, the Ft. Myers starting rotation really didn’t help McCardell. Although Jeff Manship was promoted and Tyler Robertson was injured, the demotions of Jay Rainville and Oswaldo Sosa, as well as the (smart) decision to put Matt Fox back in the rotation and try to find a lefty like Spencer Steedley or Joe Testa, didn’t allow McCardell an opportunity to start for the Miracle. And he should be starting, not in the bullpen at this stage in his career.  McCardell has a good fastball, a great curveball and terrific control. But he needed to work on his changeup. A report from a scout from another organization says that he “has major league potential, has command of all three pitches, and he has moxie.” He continued, “nothing rattles him… He goes out and does his job.”

2009 Projection: Start Season in Ft. Myers, should move up after All-Star break.

Potential: #3 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

 

#17 – Joe Benson – OF– 20 (3/5/88)

2008 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2006 out of Joliet (IL) High School

A year ago when prospect rankings came out, Benson was ranked very highly by everyone. He was in my top dozen. Baseball America and others ranked him as high as #2 in the Twins system. The ranking was based on tools, potential and athleticism because when it comes to those things, Benson is as high as anyone in these rankings. That all remains the same this year; Benson’s athleticism is off the charts. He started the year back at Beloit, as was anticipated. Unfortunately, his season came to an end after just 69 games because of a fracture in his back. This is the same injury that Whit Robbins had a year earlier, and Jason Kubel fought earlier in this career. When his season ended, he was hitting .248/.326/.382 with 23 extra base hits in 254 at bats. He stole 17 bases but was caught 11 times. Strikeouts remain the biggest concern with Benson. He struck out 73 times on the year. Here is my interpretation of those struggles though. I think that the Twins are trying to develop more patient hitters. (see Alexi Casilla, 2008) It appears that they are really stressing taking a lot of pitches. Sometimes that means falling behind or hitting with two strikes. For young players that are aggressive hitters, that can mean a lot of struggle. However, the long-term benefits of more patient approach at the plate are dramatic, and in the long run, he will be better because of it. As with Chris Parmelee, Benson is still young for the Midwest League. Hopefully he can start 2009 in Ft. Myers, remain healthy and continue to progress.     

2009 Projection: Should spend the season in Ft. Myers, in part due to his back

Potential: a 30/30 type of hitter, with a gold glove

Could be in Minnesota in: 2012

 

# 16 – Shooter Hunt – RHP – 22 (8/16/86)

2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins

Acquired: Twins supplemental 1st round pick in 2008 out of Tulane University

Shooter Hunt came to the Twins as their supplemental first round pick, the 31st overall pick, this June. He signed quickly and made a great first impression with the Elizabethton Twins. He made four starts and although he didn’t get a decision, he gave up just one earned run in 19 innings (0.47 ERA). He walked six and struck out 34. The performance earned him a promotion to Beloit where we were reminded us of what caused him to slip down in the draft. Control. He made seven Midwest League starts and went 1-4 with a 5.46 ERA. However, in 31.1 innings, he struck out 34 hitters, but he walked way too many, 27. He also hit six batters. Thought of as an upper first round pick coming into the season, he walked 56 in 100+ innings during his junior year at Tulane. But we always have to remember not to make too much of the statistics put up by college pitchers drafted in the current year. He has been pitching since early January without a break. He may have the best curveball in the organization, likely in the same category as Jeff Manship. I would anticipate Hunt progressing similarly to Manship. He will likely begin the 2009 season in Beloit where he will probably only spend about a half season… if he has control.

2009 Projection: spend most the season in Beloit, late promotion to Ft. Myers possible

Potential: Potential #2 type of pitcher if he gains control of his pitches.

Could be in Minnesota in: 2012

 

# 15 – Rene Tosoni – OF – 22 (7/2/86)

2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 36th round pick in 2005 out of Chipola College

When the 2008 minor league assignments were made at the conclusion of minor league camp, one name stood out to me, Rene Tosoni? Why? Tosoni spent last year with the Elizabethton Twins and played a huge role in their championship. He then moved up to Beloit where he helped them to the championship series. Typical progression would be for Tosoni to head to Beloit for his first full-season team. However, the Twins brass determined that Tosoni was ready to be pushed all the way up to Ft. Myers. Even better, he got off to a great start with the Miracle. He played in about 40 games before breaking his foot and missing much of the rest of the summer. He came back to the Miracle for the season’s final two games. In 42 games this season, he hit .300/.404/.408 with seven doubles, three triples and a homer. Then in the playoffs for the Miracle, he played hero again. In game one of the first series, he hit a 2 run homer in the team’s 2-1 win. In game one of the championship series, he was 2-3 with a walk and another home run. Tosoni really seems to be a natural hitter. He is still just 22 and his success even after skipping a level is impressive. He might just start next season in Ft. Myers again, just to get off to a good start again, but I can see him moving up very quickly. The belief is that he might have enough bat to play the corner outfield position as he moves up the system.

2009 Projection: because of injury, could start season at Ft. Myers. Definite candidate for midseason promotion.

Potential: steady all around outfielder

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

 

# 14 – Jeff Manship – RHP – 23 (1/16/85)

2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 14th round pick in 2006 out of Notre Dame University

I was surprised somewhat when Manship started the season back at Ft. Myers. In the end, it was probably for the best with even Jeff saying it was good for him to work on a third pitch and feel confident in it at all times. In 13 starts with the Miracle, he went 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA. In 78.2 innings, he walks 20 and struck out 63. He pitched a perfect inning in the FSL All-Star game and after the game was promoted to New Britain.  I think it would be fair to say that he experienced plenty of ups and downs in his 14 AA starts. Overall, he went 3-6 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. But in his final three starts, he went 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. In 16 innings, he walked six and struck out 16. His final start was six shutout innings. That was a great way to end his season. He will now get an opportunity to pitch against many other great prospects in the Arizona Fall League. It will be a good challenge for him. I would expect him to start the 2009 season back with the Rockcats, and depending on how the season goes, he could work his way up to Rochester. If he does real well, it would not be shocking to see him with the Twins next September as the Twins will have to put him on the 40 man roster following the season.

2009 Projection: Likely spend full season in New Britain rotation

Potential: #3 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

 

#13 – Chris Parmelee – OF/1B – 20 (2/24/88)

2008 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2006 out of Chino Hills (CA) High School

When it comes to Chris Parmelee, it is important to do one thing… Ignore his batting average and strikeouts, at least for now. In 69 2008 games, he hit just .239. But an Isolated Discipline of .146 meant he was on base 38.5% of the time. An Isolated Power of .237 says that he has a lot of raw power.  Those types of numbers scream “Adam Dunn!” But with a 20 year old in his second season at Low A ball, that might be a bit lofty. Rob Deer hit a lot of big league home runs in a short career, maybe he or Jack Cust would be better potential comparisons. You never like to see a prospect get hurt, but it would have been really nice to see what Parmelee could have done in the second half of the season. In basically a half-season, Parmelee hit 14 homers and drove in 49 runs. If his overall numbers for the season would have been in the upper 20s or around 30, do you think we would think more highly of him? Hopefully 2009 will bring a promotion to Ft. Myers, continued power and a drop in strikeouts. When he puts the ball in play, good things happen.

2009 Projection: playing RF and 1B in Ft. Myers all year

Potential: home run, strikeout or walk type in the big leagues

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

 

# 12 – Deolis Guerra – RHP – 19 (4/17/89)

2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Traded to Twins with Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana in March 2008

Young for his level of competition. That’s what ‘earned’ Guerra a top ranking. And honestly, that is what keeps him this high in the rankings. Guerra spent his second full season in the Florida State League where the average age is closer to 22 or 23. In fact, most 19 year olds in the Twins system played in the Gulf Coast League. Sure, Guerra went 11-9, but it is again an excellent example of why Win-Loss record means nothing. His ERA was 5.47. In 130 innings, he struck out very few (71) and walked the same amount (71). That is not good. That contributed to his 1.61 WHIP. Again, if he were 22, or even 21, a season like this would keep him well out of the Top 50. The most disheartening thing is that in the same league the year before, at age 18, he was much better. But we are told that the Twins are tweaking his mechanics and that could have contributed to the wildness and loss of velocity. But prospect lists are based on potential. At 6-5, he can continue to grow. The velocity should, over time, get back into the mid or upper 90s. His changeup is already very good. His curveball can only get better. The reality is that he could stay in the Florida State League next year and the next and still be considered young for the level. The Twins preach control, and it is wise to keep him at a level that he can continue to improve and make adjustments without the league overwhelming him.  Count me on the list of people who still think he will be the key component in that Johan Santana trade.

2009 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers for another half season

Potential: potential ace

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

 

# 11 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – 22 (6/15/86)

2008 Teams: New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of Crespi Carmelite H.S. (CA)

After years of being pushed through the system, probably faster than he was ready, Plouffe put together a very solid season at AA New Britain in 2007. My assumption was that the Twins would continue the trend and push him up to Rochester to start this season. But instead, they signed and retained a bunch of old veteran types at AAA and let Plouffe get another half-season of AA seasoning. Maybe he was disappointed, but he did not play well in 58 AA games. He hit .269/.325/.410 in 227 at bats. He walked just 16 times to go with 43 strikeouts. However, he did have 23 extra base hits (17 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers). When the Red Wings were completely out of middle infielders, Plouffe was summoned to Rochester likely in part because Luke Hughes was hurt and despite the fact that Steve Tolleson deserved the promotion much more. But afte a slow start, Plouffe held his own at the minor league’s highest level. He hit .256/.292/.420 with 26 extra base hits (17 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs) in 250 at bats. The strange thing about his promotion is that he played as much 3B and 2B as he played SS. He had played occasionally at 3B, but he had not played 2B. Plouffe should start the 2009 season with the Red Wings.I hope the he primarily plays SS because if he can continue to hit doubles and drive a few more home runs while playing solid defense, he could be the Twins starting shortstop in 2010.

2009 Projection: hopefully a lot of SS in Rochester, but will likely spend plenty of time at 3B and 2B.

Potential: good glove, solid bat SS

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

 

 

With that, you can anticipate Part 4, the Top 10 prospects, being posted in the next day or two. As you would expect, it depends on how the Twins are doing and how much time I have to get things posted. But I welcome your questions, comments, opinions, rankings or arguments. You can e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com or Comment there

 

I appreciate all comments!

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24 Responses to “SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects – Part 3 (11-20)”

  1. mike wants wins October 2, 2008 at 9:00 am #

    The Plouffe things makes you wonder if they are considering moving Alexi back to short. I’d like to see Plouffe at SS, frankly.

  2. mike wants wins October 2, 2008 at 9:12 am #

    As for their large number of starting type pitchers, I’m hoping they deal for a 3B or OF, one that is more proven and less prospect. If Young was included in that deal, I would not be disappointed.

    It’s hard to argue about any of these, other than Guerra. To call his season a disappointment would be an understatement. They have lots of 2-4 type pitchers (upside wise), and I was hoping this guy was a legit ace type. That would be really hard to say at this point.

    This part of the list is much more based on potential, and less on actual performance. Benson, Parmalee, and Plouffe all have high ceilings, but have not produced to those ceilings yet. While I think they all have a shot at the place you are projecting, it would be shocking if they all made it.

  3. gobbledygookguy October 2, 2008 at 9:46 am #

    seth what guys might be on the edge of keep or expose to the minor league draft? if i remember right we lost several players last winter.
    we know boof and humber are out of options, any other players that may be at that decision time, keep, trade or let go? which ones might have trade value?
    did any of the guys traded to florida for louie produce anything?

  4. Jeff P October 2, 2008 at 10:13 am #

    Good list, interesting to me that 5 of the 11-20 group were in the top 10 in the Sept 07 list (and for that matter Guerra was number 1 in the preseason list.) I can’t say I am all that surprised, I was not all that excited about the top 10 list from last year, they just didn’t seem to have that much higher level of play.

    I encourage people to go back and look at the old lists, they are easy to find in the archives. Especially look at the top 10 from 2005 and 2006. Yes we have the benefit of hindsight, but wow there were a lot of guys who excelled at their level and better yet did it at AA/AAA.

    The Twins did so well this year in large part because so many of the top 10 guys from 2005/2006 contributed this year:

    2005 (liriano, baker, kubel, span, slowey)
    2006 (garza, slowey, casilla, perkins)

    Obviously Garza through his trade for Young, although I know some here do not think much of Young. :) The other thing that was interesting to me is that most of those guys were ranked based mostly on what they did, not their “tools” or based on age/level of play. Span was an exception to some extent and Kubel was injured in 2005, but was a stud in 2004.

    This year, the guys who really had outstanding years and who will be in the top 10 were mostly at lower levels so I don’t think there will be as much help over the next couple of years. Still a few of the guys have solid potential to help the twins in 2009-2010. I am looking forward to seeing exactly where those guys are ranked in this year’s top 10.

  5. Seth October 2, 2008 at 10:25 am #

    Gobble – I am not certain which guys will be put on the AAA and AA reserve lists, but I like to assume that if I rank them in my top 50 (there are 37 or so on each list), they would likely not be left off of those lists, so I don’t anticipate any of these being drafted in the minor league portion of the Rule V draft.

    I have gone through prospects 11-50, here are some that could be lost in the Major League portion of the Rule V draft if not protected:
    Ryan Mullins, Edward Ovalle, Brock Peterson, Yohan Pino, Juan Portes, Jay Rainville, Erik Lis, David Winfree, Dustin Martin (pretty sure), Brian Duensing, Steve Tolleson, Trevor Plouffe. There are a couple on the Top 10 the would have to be added. Guys like Tim Lahey (who was the #1 pick in the Rule V last year) and Loek Van Mil are candidates to be selected as well. If it were up to me, I would protect Martin, Duensing, Tolleson and Plouffe, maybe Lis.

    As for the Luis Castillo acquisition, the twins gave up Scott Tyler and Travis Bowyer. Bowyer was given an opportunity that season to be the Marlins closer, but he hurt his shoulder and really hasn’t pitched much since then. Tyler had a call-up last year but never pitched.

  6. Seth October 2, 2008 at 10:35 am #

    Jeff P – thanks for the mention about previous lists. If people go to the Archive pages and look in early June and September, you’ll find the bi-annual top 50 lists.

    To your point, 2004, 2005 and 2006 did have a lot of high-end talent. The top 10s were easy to do in those years. There was always 3-4 guys that had tremendous production working up the system. Guys like Kubel, Morneau, Liriano, Garza and Slowey had the tools but almost production and were making it to the upper levels.

    I think what happened is that the Twins filled many big league roster spots, and this year is no exception. Where are the big league needs? 3B? SS? BP? Well, although there will be some high ceiling guys that are 2-4 years out among the Top Twins Prospects, there are guys to fit those three positions. You’ve seen Plouffe at #11 and he’s at AAA at at 22. Mijares, Slama and Delaney are guys that are there or probably close to help in the bullpen. there are a few 3B in the upper levels that could play 3B. So, in my mind, it’s always nice to have guys ready, but based on the Twins needs, I am very comfortable with many of the top prospects being at lower levels.

    And really, if guys like Perkins or Blackburn struggle and end up in the bullpen, I would feel comfortable with Duensing and Manship and a couple of other pitchers that I think we could see in the next year.

  7. gobbledygookguy October 2, 2008 at 10:50 am #

    thanks seth!
    i think it’s interesting that so many people can’t wait for these minor league guys, many who are older than young but can’t wait to get ride of young who just turned 23. if these guys were better than young wouldn’t they be with the twins?
    he did a good job (not great) this year, improved over the yr and should have a good future. was he perfect? no, his .290 was a little weak but punto hits a very weak .280 and many say what a great yr he had. i’ll be happy to give young another yr. to prove how bad he is and what a poor club house guy he is before shipping him off.
    to many questions for next yr, will cuddy ever get back to what he was in 06 or will the injury bug follow him? will span beable to repeat this yr. or will the league catch up to him? will gomez make the next step or just tease us now and then with flashes of dazzle?
    kubal and cuddy as extra out fielders and dh’s would be fine with me. cuddy can fill in a first, can’t let morneau play 162 gms again it clearly showed he was tired the last few weeks. if we can’t find a 3b maybe cuddy can spend some time there, he can’t be any worse in the field than buscher.
    we need to find one more infielder with some power, weather it be a 3b, ss or 2b. casilla can move and we also have to hope he can maintain what he did. the league, it appeared was figuring him out a little, as the season went on his ave. dropped and what we saw this yr may not be there next yr.
    lots of stuff to chew on for the next 4-5 months.
    keep up the good work seth!

  8. thrylos98 October 2, 2008 at 11:50 am #

    These lists are very difficult to construct and I think that it more of an art than a science, but (guessing who the top ten are) I think that there are a few players missing from the top 50 list, mainly
    Josmil Pinto C, 19 .329/.394/.541 at GCL
    Anderson Hidalgo IF, 19 .364/.453/.466 at GCL
    Michael Gonzales 1B 20 .331/.387/.489 at GCL

    I think that their ceiling is probably higher that Whit Robbins’, de Los Santos’, and Ovalle’s for starters… I am really psyched about Hidalgo, who made a great transition from the DSL to the GCL this summer and he plays in a position that the Twins are lacking (unless he cracks your 1-10, which I doubt ;) )…

    Also a lot of the Dominican Summer League arms this year were quite impressive. I think that the Twins have turned the corner with their Latin American recruiting, the key is to get those players faster into the US. Minors.

    As far as this 11-20 list goes, I think that Guerra should probably take a Romero-like penalty and tumble a bit and I never thought much about Plouffe. He looks like would be a Harris-like player in the majors.

  9. mike wants wins October 2, 2008 at 12:58 pm #

    gobbledygookguy – what is your defintion of good? did you compare Young to last year? How about to other LFers? he wasn’t in the top 25, offensively, in the majors among LFers. Last I checked he was 27th, but that was with about a week or two left in the season. He could have moved a spot or two either way.

    Had he been league average, surely the Twins would have won one more game. They gave up a guy, who many on this and other boards said would fail in Tampa, who many of us thought had the best stuff in the entire system, for a guy that didn’t do much at all to help the Twins win.

    I have no idea why anyone would say he did well this year, when objectively comparing him to his previous year, or to other LFers.

  10. gobbledygookguy October 2, 2008 at 1:40 pm #

    what i said was he did a good job not great. he is young in age, he seemed to improve over the course of the yr and is the best left fielder we’ve had in several yrs. but you being so objective and blaming him for them not winning the division only shows you have an ax to grind and a personal hate for the guy. you can point to all 25 guys on the team and find multiple games they could have done this or that to win a game.
    my hope is that as he matures he will produce more, and hit for more power. are you comparing him to all the 22 yr old left fielders? then again i think jason tyner is out of work we could bring him back! or maybe lew ford.

  11. mike wants wins October 2, 2008 at 1:52 pm #

    The statement wasn’t “he’s young and has potential” the statement was “he did a good job this year”.

    And, all I want is someone to explan “good” to me. Seth has said similar things. Yet, when you compare him to other LFers, he was one of the 3-5 worst every day players at the position.

    I don’t blame him for anything (other than not being willing to take coaching). I merely pointed out that had he been league average, they probably would have won one more game.

    Good, to me, means better than average. Average means average. He was neither.

    Now, if you want to talk about what might be in the future, that’s a different discussion. I’m only talking about how he played this year, and asking people to explain why they think he was good THIS YEAR.

    Of course, no one is under an obligation to answer this question.

  12. thrylos98 October 2, 2008 at 2:02 pm #

    here is what “good” is in my book:

    Young had an OPS+ of 100 this season, which is league average.

    He was 7th in the AL LFieders in Runs Created (behind Ibanez, Damon, Quentin, DeJesus, Cust, Garret Anderson and ahead of players like Marcus Thames, Carl Crawford and Ben Fransisco). He led the left fielders with a ground ball percentage of 55.2, which means that once that number declines he will be hitting more doubles and home runs. He is still learning, but he is on his way there…

  13. mike wants wins October 2, 2008 at 2:23 pm #

    That’s a good answer. Is that OPS+ league average across all positions, or compared to LFers? I can’t remember if that is position specific.

    He’s 27th in most advanced stats among those LFers with at least 350 ABs in LF (assuming I did the sorting correct).

    Your last sentence, again, is about how good he will be, someday. Not everyone gets better with age, Young, for example, created less runs this year than last, I believe.

    I’m not stating anything about his future here, just what he did or did not do this year, and whether or not he was good compared to other LFers (not SS and C and 2B and CF).

  14. Bill in Sarasota October 2, 2008 at 3:20 pm #

    I think potential is weighted by Seth too much on certain players (especially high round picks – Benson & Hunt). Benson hasn’t proved any thing yet. He doesn’t deserve to be in the top 25 until he does some thing (.300, power, steal) above average.

    Hunt is slightly high since he was ineffective in low A.

    Again Benson & Hunt are the best examples that Mijares was ranked way too low. He should be 10-12th.

    I just looked up Gutierrez and he’s already 25. Obviously the Twins liked him to pick him in the first round but you would think he would have been downgraded to the later rounds because of the age. Though he did hold his own at FSL in his brief stint there.

  15. gobbledygookguy October 2, 2008 at 3:24 pm #

    mike i guess compared to tyner, rondell, garrett jones, lew ford of 07 his yr was good imo.
    now to compare his 2nd yr at age 22:
    10 hr. 69 rbi, .290 ave. .336 0bp
    kirby pucketts 2nd yr at age 25:
    4 hr. 74 rbi, .288 ave, .330 obp
    now that’s not saying he will be another kirby but 3 yrs younger at same point in their careers he compares well. i know for a fact that nobody ever thought kirby would hit 30 hr in a yr.
    i have no idea how kirby compared to all center fielders in 1984, however.

  16. Bill in Sarasota October 2, 2008 at 3:40 pm #

    I cannot nail down Seth’s 10th guy in his top ten:
    Nine are Revere, Hicks, Morales (OF), Ramos, Robertson, Valencia, Hughes, Swarzak, and Mulvey.

    Jose Morales ? Does any one have a guess? Who am I over looking?

  17. BB-STC October 2, 2008 at 3:51 pm #

    Well it’s got to be Carlos Gutierrez. I don’t know if I’d place him in the top ten quite yet.

  18. Brent October 2, 2008 at 4:26 pm #

    I think Young had and ops+ of 100, which makes him exactly league average.

  19. Seth October 2, 2008 at 4:33 pm #

    “I think potential is weighted by Seth too much on certain players”

    Isn’t that what prospect lists are about??? I sometimes get accused for using numbers too much to alter my thinking…

    Count me in on the tired of Delmon Young bashing list. That’s Thrylos for some good numbers, but to think that Delmon Young cost the Twins a bunch of games is ridiculous because then you could say the same about many others. And Gobble – being able to bring a Kirby Puckett comparison into a Twins discussion never hurts!! Thanks! :)

    I can guarantee that Jose Morales is not in the Top 10!

    “I just looked up Gutierrez and he’s already 25.”

    Carlos Gutierrez just turned 22 about two weeks ago.

  20. mike wants wind October 2, 2008 at 5:19 pm #

    OPS+ is not adjusted by position, so I guess he’s pretty good compared to SS, 2B, and catchers.

    Who said he cost the Twins a bunch of wins?

    Last post on this topic, until they either trade him, or we see how he plays next year or someone asks me to post again :)

  21. Shawn in Binghamton October 2, 2008 at 5:26 pm #

    I am biased on Plouffe. I have seen him play short a handful of times and doesn’t look to have great range…. i wonder if he has a future at short or if he is a future 2b?

    In person i liked Tolleson better.

  22. Bill in Sarasota October 2, 2008 at 9:07 pm #

    1. Prospect lists are based more than just potential. You need to consider production in the minors and relative age for each level. Not appreciating production is the minors and low K rate is why you were off on Blackburn last year. Benson has great potential because he has size and speed. But if he only hits 260 as his best year and has a lot of strike outs then his potential won’t become production.

    2. I’m relieved that Gutierrez is only 22. Baseball Cube listed him as 25.

  23. TT October 2, 2008 at 10:02 pm #

    I can guarantee that Jose Morales is not in the Top 10!

    Shouldn’t he at least be in the top 50? If he recovers and can catch again he becomes a plus offensive catcher.

    Prospect lists are based more than just potential. You need to consider production in the minors and relative age for each level.

    I don’t think production has anything to do with it. Prospect lists are almost always based on potential and the likelihood a player will reach that potential. Production is sometimes be evidence of those factors, but it also often isn’t.

    In fact, Blackburn is a good example of that. Over most of his career, his production would not make you think he was ever going to pitch in the major leagues. This is a guy who spent two years in low A ball and had a 4.43 ERA in his second year at AA in 2006 and, in 2007, started his third year at AA before moving up to AAA at age 25. I think a lot of people discounted Blackburn because they saw last year’s performance as an aberration rather than a breakout.

    If anything, Seth over-emphasizes performance in his evaluations.

  24. seth June 6, 2009 at 8:37 pm #

    carl crawford and jacoby ellsbury is the fastest baseball players

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