How about… Jake Peavy?

16 Oct

available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, there are talks about Jake Peavy being available in a trade. My initial thought is that the Twins would likely not be involved in that discussion. However, it could make sense.

 

According to the latest note, “The Padres want two young pitchers and a near MLB-ready center fielder in return.

 

OK, if that is the going rate for a Cy Young caliber starting pitcher who has four years and $56 million left on his contract (very reasonable!), I would absolutely make an offer.

 

“Two Young Pitchers” – What does that mean? Would Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn suffice? Would you deal both of them in a trade that brought back Peavy? How about one of them along with (Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Brian Duensing) and (Boof Bonser or Philip Humber)?

 

Now the second part is a “Near MLB-ready center fielder.” Does that mean Denard Span or Carlos Gomez? Would you deal either of them in a package to bring back Peavy? Gomez patrolling center field in Petco would be pretty incredible! But if it’s “near MLB-ready” could that mean Jason Pridie? Could it mean Dustin Martin? What are your thoughts?

 

How about this… Twins send Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey and Carlos Gomez to the Padres for Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene?

 

What about Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser, Jason Pridie and Ben Revere for Peavy and Greene? Am I crazy?

 

If that is truly what the Padres are looking for, I think that the Twins would be wise to at least investigate and make an offer. We are talking about one of the top handful of pitchers in baseball, a guy who would be signed for four more years. I think it’s worth trying.

 

A rotation that includes a top four of Jake Peavy, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey sounds like a team that could win a lot of games!

 

Any thoughts? Send me an e-mail (SethSpeaksNet@hotmail.com) or Comment here.

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21 Responses to “How about… Jake Peavy?”

  1. Dustin October 17, 2008 at 12:10 am #

    The only problem would be his willingness to play here. The Padres would have to do that first proposed trade in a heartbeat. Blackburn, Swarzak, Mulvey, and Gomez is a big price to pay, and as a Twins fan it’d be hard to do. The second deal I’d do in a heartbeat, but I’d doubt the Padres would feel the same. But like you said, it doesn’t hurt to investigate…

  2. TT October 17, 2008 at 12:33 am #

    I agree the Twins should go after Peavy and see what the Padres ask for. I would not give up more than one current member of the rotation. I would hate to see Span or Gomez traded, but as the center of a deal for Peavy the Twins would have to consider giving up one of them.

  3. zerg October 17, 2008 at 8:21 am #

    Peavy has a no-trade and is saying he’d rather stay in the NL. He might change his mind, but that seems doubtful.

  4. Han Joelo October 17, 2008 at 8:50 am #

    Seems like the Padres would require a Bedard-like return. So, in place of George Sherrill they’d want Neshek, instead of Adam Jones they’d want Gomez, and instead of Chris Tillman they’d want a Robertson or McCardell. Not sure what the other pieces of that trade were, but likely it would be a couple more mid-low level prospects. Maybe you sub Pridie for Gomez and throw in Revere. Add Ramos and you also get Greene.

    As for the no-trade, Peavy would be getting the chance to contend, but he’d be swapping the friendly and warm confines of Petco and the NL West (other the Denver) for pitching in the frigid midwest.

  5. thisisbeth October 17, 2008 at 9:16 am #

    Along with Dustin, your first proposal makes me a little more wary, but the second one I’m much happier with (as hard as it would be to give up Pridie, whom reports have shown is a good player and person, I’d rather have Gomez).

  6. James October 17, 2008 at 10:25 am #

    the cf would be sticking point for me.

    Choice of Blackburn or Perkins
    Mulvey, choice of Bonser, Humber, Swarzak

    No Gomez, No Span

    Really if you have to trade one..Span would be it…Gomez has very unusual potential..and the Spans arent nearly as hard to find

  7. A Dot October 17, 2008 at 11:41 am #

    The problem is that Span is the only table setter we have, and a key to Mauer and Morneau’s success. As nice of a luxury as Peavy would be, I don’t think it’s worth it for this much talent. First, it’s highly unlikely all 5 young starters get through an entire season again uninjured, so having options like Swarzak (who was horrible at AA last year), Mulvey, and Duensing (who was only marginal at AAA) are a must since none of them equates to even the same kind of prospect Blackburn was (and he has plenty of ?’s too).

    But ultimately, for a guy like Peavy, I’d imagine Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, or Liriano would need to be included, so the Blackburn/Perkins options may even fall short.

  8. Seth October 17, 2008 at 11:43 am #

    I do understand that Peavy doesn’t want to pitch in the AL. My main point in writing that is that I really hope that the Twins at least made a phone call. I think that if they just have the conversation and could get OK to talk to Peavy and tout, 1.) new stadium, 2.) playing with Mauer and Morneau, 3.) playing on team that contends annually, 4.) playing for Gardy, 5.) playing for Rick Anderson.

  9. Dome Dog October 17, 2008 at 12:11 pm #

    This all sounds great, but I put this in the same category of wishing the Twins would sign Manny Ramirez….it’s just not going to happen. I just don’t think the Twins would be willing to give up the prospects it would take to get Peavy (even if he was willing to come here) just like they are not willing to pay the money to attract a big name free agent like Ramirez.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m hopeful that some day we can have dreams like this in the offseason and see them come true…but if you don’t mind I’m going to go back to my more realistic dreams of obtaining a Casey Blake type this offseason…

  10. Dan October 17, 2008 at 12:11 pm #

    I’m a little worried about given up so much talent and Peavy’s health. Didn’t he have a couple of stretches where he struggled this year because of elbow problems?

  11. thrylos98 October 17, 2008 at 12:14 pm #

    I am not sure that Peavy’s makes sense for the Twins at this point:

    a. his contract is crazy: 09:$8M, 10:$15M, 11:$16M, 12:$17M, 13: $22M club option ($4M buyout) This is a 4+1 contract that the Twins would not give to any of their own pitchers.

    b. I am not sure that he is the superstar a lot of people think he is. His career numbers away from Petco are 3.80 ERA and .246 BAA (in the NL). Liriano, Slowey and Baker put similar numbers last year, in the AL. So, frankly, I don’t think that he will be that much of an upgrade…

    c. there is no way he is going to any AL team other than the Yankees (maybe Boston)

    On the other hand Greene makes perfect sense and a Humber or Bonser would be more than enough to get him, but Smith better hurry before the Padres package him…

  12. Dan October 17, 2008 at 12:52 pm #

    “The San Diego Padres have been hit with some devastating news. Star pitcher Jake Peavy has experienced elbow soreness in 3 of his past 4 starts, and has been scratched from his Monday start. The latest of elbow pains came Wednesday, when Peavy had his shortest outing of the season, pitching only 4 innings giving up 4 runs on 7 hits, and having no command of his fastball.”

    “The problem is that, like Chris Carpenter, Kerry Wood, and BJ Ryan, Jake Peavy has a significant Inverted L in his arm action. This hurts his timing and is one cause of his elbow problems. It will also set him up for Rotator Cuff and Labrum problems in a few years.”

    I don’t think the analysis was professional, but still makes you think about it.

  13. thrylos98 October 17, 2008 at 12:59 pm #

    Here is another interesting set of numbers about Peavy:

    Average & Max pitches per game:

    2008: Max pitches: 127, Average: 106, Rank: 9
    2007: Max pitches: 118, Average: 106, Rank: 6
    2006: Max pitches: 129, Average: 105, Rank: 11
    2005: Max pitches: 124, Average: 105, Rank: 9

    Here are some names that were perennially on the top 10 lists for higher average pitches thrown per game:

    Jason Schmidt
    Carlos Zambrano
    Barry Zito
    Joel Piniero
    Freddy Garcia
    Mike Prior
    Dontrelle Willis

    I think that Peavy is an injury away of a waste of $65+$22M

  14. Mark October 17, 2008 at 1:42 pm #

    There is no way you can get a player like Jake Peavey for that collection of players. I mean, Jason Pridie? When the Twins traded Johan Santana would they have considered second tier, at best, prospects in return?

    To make that trade teh Twins would have to give up one of their right handed starting pitchers. The Padres probably would not do the trade without landing Slowery or Baker. Maybe you can do the trade for Blackburn but I think that creates additional compensation down the line.

    On top of that they would ask for a top minor league arm. In the Twins organization this would be Anthony Swarzak or Tyler Robertson.

    I think that the Padres would be interested in Carlos Gomez if it is true they are looking for a CF. He has the potential to be a great fielder, and enough pop in his bat and speed on the bases to make up for his limited OBP.

    But, I think to really make this fantasy trade come true would take another prospect from the Twins of a top caliber, especially if the top starting pitcher is Blackburn instead of Baker or Slowery. And, we are talking a Trevor Plouffe or Ben Revere level prospect.

    So, I think the trade would have to be Blackburn, Swarzak, Gomez, and Plouffe for Peavey.

  15. mike wants wins October 17, 2008 at 2:58 pm #

    Not sure, I worry about the injury thing a tad….

    That said, you generally win championships with a few great players (or amazingly hot ones) surrounded by some good players. The Twins (by their own admission) are short on the great players. Peavey could be one of those great players.

    This is tough.

    I’d do it for Blackburn, AAA pitcher X (pick any) and Revere.

  16. Dan October 17, 2008 at 3:04 pm #

    I think they should stick with their pitching staff. The rookies have a full season under their belt now and I would hate to give up talent for more pitching.

    Young and Gomez might still grow into the stars they were projected to be. That would give Minnesota Mauer, Morneau, Gomez, Young, Liriano, Neshek and Nathan all as stars leading the team to the playoffs.

    I can dream, can’t I? :-)

  17. TT October 17, 2008 at 3:10 pm #

    a. his contract is crazy: 09:$8M, 10:$15M, 11:$16M, 12:$17M, 13: $22M club option ($4M buyout)

    That is a deal killer. I thought he was signed for four years at something around that 09 salary. If the Twins are willing to spend that much money they would be better off spending that it elsewhere.

  18. mike wants wins October 17, 2008 at 3:18 pm #

    Heh, that’s how normal stiffs’ contracts will look by then. No matter what we think, contracts escalate every year. By 2012, that $17MM will look like chump change.

  19. Drew October 17, 2008 at 3:35 pm #

    First of all, this is obviously hypothetical.

    Secondly, who can people say that they’d be hard pressed to give up either Blackburn or Perkins. Every projection I’ve seen is saying Perkins will be an average starter in the major leagues.

    Peavy is a legit Cy Young candidate every year, and how can you not see Peavy as a huge upgrade over Blackburn? You don’t want to lose unproven prospects who will mid rotation starters at best even if they would bring an ace in return?

    For years, fans have complained about the Twins bringing in sub par veteran players, and now when we’re having a hypothetical conversation about trading for a top tier pitcher like Jake Peavy, you’re saying it’s stupid? Make up your minds people.

    As far the money is concerned. The Twins can afford it. He’ll be a very affordable $8 million the first season, and although his salary will spike after the 2009 season, so will revenue with the new stadium.

    The Twins are perennial contenders (which Peavy has long desired) and the Twins have the pieces to make a deal. I like Denard Span, but sell high. You can’t honestly think he’s going to continue to perform the way he did over a partial major league season? Gomez has a much higher ceiling, so hold on to him.

    Any pitcher can get injured, so talking about injuries is absurd. Take out this season (where he still threw some 170 odd innings), and he has a pretty strong record of playing.

    Again, it’s hypothetical, but I completely agree with you Seth that it would nice to at least make an inquiring phone call.

  20. TT October 17, 2008 at 8:53 pm #

    By 2012, that $17MM will look like chump change.

    No, it won’t. Its really %$61 million over four years.

    Any pitcher can get injured, so talking about injuries is absurd.

    How does that follow? You are risking a huge amount of resources on one player. The Twins lost that kind of bet with Kirby Puckett and it took them almost a decade to recover.

    The Twins have several young potential super stars. If they want to have Joe Mauer on the roster in 2012, they are going to have to come up with a good chunk of change. Picking up Nathan’s 2012 option will cost them $12.5 million. Morneau will cost $14 million. And every other player on this year’s roster will at least be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season.

    The money for Peavy would likely be far better spent locking up their budding young stars with long term contracts. If those guys aren’t good enough to warrant a long term contract, then paying Peavy to pitch for a struggling team is still a waste of money.

    Anyone who thinks the new stadium is going to make the Twins into the New York Yankees where cost is no object are kidding themselves. The budget is still going to be constrained. It just means they might be able to hang on to one or two more players with long term deals.

  21. Kim P October 21, 2008 at 12:48 pm #

    I have no confidence in Bill Smith putting a deal like this together. He either can’t or won’t. I’m with Dome Dog on this go for a Casey Blake type.

    Kim P

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