Weekend (and Book) Updates « SethSpeaks.net

Weekend (and Book) Updates

Alright, this time I am certain it can be said… Congratulations to Grant Balfour, Jason Bartlett and even Matt Garza! The Tampa Bay Rays are on their way to the World Series! What a game! How impressive did David Price look closing out that game? Good control. Fastball 94-96. Slider between 86 and 88. He’s got stuff that we saw from Francisco Liriano in 2006, well, without Liriano’s changeup. The #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft who didn’t make a pitch in a professional baseball game until the end of May is going to be a star.

I have already been asked for my thoughts about Matt Garza and how good he would look with the Twins. Maybe he’s the next Josh Beckett! No question, he was very good last night and got two wins in the ALCS to be named the ALCS MVP. But a few games in the playoffs doesn’t make it a bad trade. I still call the trade even and when Delmon Young becomes the player I still believe that he can become, it will be just fine. The Twins had depth in pitching and were able to get a bat that they can have in the lineup every day. In reality, Jason Bartlett was as big a part of that deal as Garza. But Garza would have fit in nicely as the Twins #4 pitcher in 2008. No question. I definitely believe that the Twins missed Jason Bartlett a lot more than Matt Garza. The best thing though was that TBS was able to interview Garza before he got too much champagne, unlike when he was interviewed after the Twins made the playoffs in 2006. Hey, Garza did a Q&A on this site back in 2006, so I have to like him.

Who in the world would have predicted a Phillies/Rays World Series matchup?! That would have been crazy to do! But now we have just that. Unfortunately, the series won’t start until Wednesday. I know I’ll be watching! That may not mean much to the folks at Fox.

Arizona Fall League Friday Update

· The Phoenix Desert Dogs beat Surprise 8-7

· Dustin Martin batted 6^th, played LF and went 1-5.

· Danny Valencia played 3B and batted fifth. He was 2-4 with a walk and his second double.

· Steve Tolleson batted second and played SS. He went 1-4 with an intentional walk and his second stolen base.

· Tim Lahey pitched the eighth inning. He gave up two hits, but no runs in his inning.

Arizona Fall League Saturday Update

· Phoenix lost 10-9 to Surprise.

· Steve Tolleson batted second and played SS. He went 2-5 with his second double and three RBI.

· Danny Valencia played 3B and batted fifth. He went 0-4 with an RBI and three strikeouts.

· Dustin Martin played LF and batted sixth. He went 1-4 with his second double.

· Rob Delaney came in for the 8^th inning. He got just two outs and gave up a hit and two walks. All three came around to score.

· Anthony Slama came in to replace Delaney and gave up a two run double off the wall to score the tying and leading runs. He got the next batter out to end the 8^th inning.

Book Update

I don’t know if this is an update or not as I haven’t officially announced it on this site. I did tell people who listened to the podcast last Tuesday night though. I have been working on writing a book the last week to ten days. Tentatively, it is called “Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook – 2009.” It will have player profiles on over 170 Twins minor leaguers. I see it as a handbook that Twins fans and fans of minor league baseball can use as a reference tool. The Twins have called up a lot of players from Rochester the last two years. Who are these guys? It can be a quick update on any player in the system. Fans of the New Britain Rockcats will want to read updates on what players who played there in previous years did and learn more about who the next players they may see will be. There will be a couple more pretty neat things included in the book, so hopefully it is something that you would consider buying. At this point, I am not going to say much more about the book. It is still in draft stage and has a bit of work to be done. My goal would be the have it available before Christmas, but that is dependent on, without specifics, timing. I mention it to you now already to drum up a little interest. If you have any questions or comments regarding the book, please e-mail me. I am curious on finding out if it if something that Twins fans or fans of the Twins minor league system will buy. Thanks!

Any thoughts? E-mail me or leave your Comments here.

October 19, 2008 - Posted by Seth | Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins, The Book, Twins Minor Leagues | | 22 Comments

22 Comments »

I have no idea how you call this trade even for this year at all. They got a starting SS, a pitcher with number 1 type stuff and we got a light hitting OF.

Garza the number 4 starter on ther Twins? I think you and I will never agree on this one. At worst he’s the third best pitcher, and he could easily be the best if Liriano does not return to form.

People here accuse me of having some kind of bias against Young, but man, you have something going on with Garza. It’s nearly impossible to find any expert on any web site that liked that trade for the Twins, before Garza had a nice post season.

Comment by mike wants wins | October 20, 2008 | Reply
I assume that you would put him ahead of Slowey, right? Compare their numbers. Tell me which is better. Garza throws harder, but struck out fewer, walked a bunch more. So yeah, he would have been the Twins #4 starter this year…

That’s not a negative. It’s an indication that the Twins have some pretty good young starters. I liked Garza’s potential with the Twins and think he will be very good.

The postseason is a beautiful thing… It can make heroes or goats out of people in a hurry. Josh Beckett is known as a great pitcher because he had pitched well going into this postseason… but a look at his career numbers and you see he’s been a good pitcher. Matt Garza is a good pitcher who because of pitching well in this playoffs will now be categorized as a big game pitcher. so far it has meant he has pitched two really good games in the playoffs.

Comment by Seth | October 20, 2008 | Reply
Yes, I think he’s better than Slowey. Just as you insist that Young’s inherent natural ability will allow him to be worth a starting pitcher and a starting SS (which he clearly was not this year), I think Garza’s stuff will allow him to be much more than Slowey will be some day.

I don’t have a ton of time at work today to compare all of their numbers (adjusted for field), so I’ll just take your word for it that their ERA and WHIP and other data make Slowey the better pitcher for this year. But as you and others argue on this trade, you can’t judge a guy on one year.

Comment by mike wants wins | October 20, 2008 | Reply
It would have been nice to have kept Garza. The trade may never be even. But i still like that the Twins made the trade. Trying to get better by trading from strength.

Garza has the potential to be better than any of the Twins starters, but i don’t think it is a guarentee.

Comment by Shawn in Binghamton | October 20, 2008 | Reply
Oh, I agree there are no guarantees about the future. And, I like that they traded from a surplus to try to fill a gap – it just isn’t the deal I’d have done. As much as I like Garza, had Bartlett not also been in the deal, I’d feel a lot better about it (though I am not a big Young fan). And, had they gone after Brandon Wood or Matt Kemp, I’d feel even better (again, no guarantees on anyone’s future – this is all hypothesis at this point).

Comment by mike wants wins | October 20, 2008 | Reply
it always takes 2 teams to make a trade and the trade i’d have made is probably not the one they’d have made. is garza a lot better then blackburn, who probably took his spot? not by record and blackburn was great in his postseason game, we’ll know more in a few yrs.
time will tell if young will turn into a player we all can like. imo, all things being equal, i’d take the guy who plays 150 gms over the guy who pitches 30. the bartlett/harris match doesn’t look great but harris was decent considering how much he got shuffled around.

Comment by gobbledygookguy | October 20, 2008 | Reply
When I look at the trade now I have the same feelings as I did at the time of the trade. I didn’t mind the Garza trade for Young as Garza seemed to struggle with the mental side of pitching. The Bartlett inclusion was the one I had a hard time with as well as the Rincon exclusion and inclusion of a more promising prospect. I think our SS hole is more pressing than the 3B issue that everybody seems to be pointing to. A Garza straight up for Young trade would have been fair.

How about the possibility of both game 7 starters of Lester and Garza in Twins uniforms if certain things had worked out slightly different.

Comment by Gopher Nation | October 20, 2008 | Reply
Congrats on the book!

I don’t know about how you feel, but so far, other than Manship and Tolleson (and maybe Rondon – but it’s too early to tell), the Twins’ prospects playing fall ball have been from mediocre to awful. I was hoping that Delaney would challenge for a spot in the Twins’ pen this spring and that Valencia would be closer, but it’s doesn’t look like this is the case… Valencia’s performance really worries me as far as the future of this organization at 3B

Thoughts?

Comment by thrylos98 | October 20, 2008 | Reply
I’ve said that Valencia is a year away, and that is fine. I’m also not going to over-analyze 10 or so games in the Fall League. He will be fine. So will Delaney. He just had a bad game.

Comment by Seth | October 20, 2008 | Reply
Agreed, that’s too small a sample size to disregard the progress he made during the year. Everyone goes through bad streaks.

Comment by mike wants wins | October 20, 2008 | Reply
I still like the Delmon/Garza trade. One thing to remember is that GArdy didn’t care for Garza or Bartlett, both have/had the lazy SoCal attitude and that didn’t sit well with Gardy. Would I do the trade again today? No, not with what we now know about Span, Gomez, Pirdie & Kubel. Hindsight is always 20-20 and you can’t fault Smith for taking the chance on Delmon. I still believe the kid will find his power stroke in a year or 2 and develop into a 25-30 HR threat. He is still young and growing into his body.

Comment by Brad | October 20, 2008 | Reply
The trade doesn’t look too good right about now for the Twins, but I liked the trade at the time. It was something different, trading pitching for a hitting prospect, which is something we don’t have too many of in our minor league system. It can still work out well for the Twins, but even if it doesn’t I’m okay with them making the trade. I’d rather they take a reasonable risk sometimes than just sit pat and never take a risk. Sometimes the trade will work out well and sometimes it won’t, that’s the nature of the beast…

Comment by Dome Dog | October 20, 2008 | Reply
Brad – Pridie came in the Garza deal. As for growing into his body – it sure looked like he was turning into dmitri (size wise – if not power wise) during the year.

Gardy has had nothing but praise and regret about losing Bartlett all year.

Funny how people keep saying how young Delmon is, but keep ripping Garza for not being mature (despite having played in the same number of seasons, give or take a spot call up or two).

Comment by mike wants wins | October 20, 2008 | Reply
remember when the trade was made the only outfielders we had were kubal, cuddy and span in aaa and having not shown he was ready. kubal is not an everyday outfielder but a dh that can play a few gms in the field. there was a reason for getting both pridie and young we didn’t have any outfielders after hunter left along with ford and tyner gone.
what we have now with cuddy, young, span and gomez in the of is nice to have and kubal dhing means we don’t have to worry about it like last yr and can look to fill the ss and 3b holes, maybe.

Comment by gobbledygookguy | October 20, 2008 | Reply
“Gardy has had nothing but praise and regret about losing Bartlett all year.”

That is nice of him since he basically spent the previous two seasons beating him down.

Comment by Seth | October 20, 2008 | Reply
But he didn’t do the same for Garza, or any other guy they’ve ever traded away. Bartlett was also voted MVP by the Ray’s players, if I heard correctly on TBS the other night. You guys always say they know more than we do, and yet you disregard this when it is convenient.

Are you suggesting Gardy is not telling the truth?

Comment by mike wants wins | October 20, 2008 | Reply
I have heard it reported that the Rays players voted Bartlett as Team MVP. I don’t know if that is true. We do know that the team’s writers voted him the MVP.

Gardy didn’t like Bartlett, on the field, because he was pretty quiet. As far as I know, Gardy and all of his teammates really liked him. (That’s why I can see that, if the Rays players actually have some sort of vote, they could vote for him) The same can definitely not be said for Garza. I believe Gardy speaks of Garza the same way he speaks of Lohse, if he has to speak of him.

Comment by Seth | October 20, 2008 | Reply
Asking which team “won” the trade is really irrelevant, its perfectly possible for both teams to have “won”. The real question is whether the Twins were a better team as a result. And, of course, whether they will be a better team in the future.

Most of Delmon Young’s at bats probably would have gone to Monroe and defensively I think he was an upgrade in left field over either Kubel or Monroe. Its possible the Twins would have kept Span in left field out of spring training, but not very likely.

Garza would have replaced one of the young starters – most likely Perkins. That wouldn’t really have been that large and upgrade but it might have had a trickle down effect on the bullpen.

Clearly the Twins would have been better off with Bartlett playing regularly at shortstop than with Harris bouncing around the infield. But you don’t really know who they would have signed instead of Everett. Its possible whoever that was would have blocked Casilla.

Then there are the clubhouse issues. Garza had some problems in Tampa and then appeared to get himself straightened out. Its not clear that would have happened in Minnesota. The change of scenery may have made a real contribution to his success.

Looking at upside, I don’t think Bartlett or Gaeza have much more to give.

Delmon Young still looks like a future star. For this trade to work for the Twins in the long run he probably needs to reach that potential

I think fans often underestimate players like Harris by comparing them to the best players in retrospect, that they imagine were available. But while Harris is unlikely to ever be a star, he hit better than Lamb, Everett and Monroe and those were the best players the Twins found available.

Pridie may have less value – especially to the Twins with their current outfield depth. But he is the kind of player that can make real contributions as a bench player.

If you look out to the future, the Twins still have a lot of upside to be realized from all three players they received.

Comment by TT | October 21, 2008 | Reply
Be sure to check out John Sickels’ Minor League Ball today… he’s had back-to-back Twins topics… First, he discussed his Top 20 Twins prospects and there are a lot of great comments. Then he posted a “You’re the GM” about the Twins and it already has a huge number of comments… check both out here:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

Comment by Seth | October 21, 2008 | Reply
Bartlett’s OPS+: 85
Harris’ OPS+: 94

Bartlett’s fielding percentage: .970
AL average fp: .971
Twins SS average fp: .973
Harris’ fp: .976

Bartlett’s range factor (RF9): 4.21
AL average RF9: 4.39
Twins SS RF9: 4.84
Harris’ RF9: 4.71

How exactly did Bartlett win team MVP for the AL champs? That’s beyond moronic. I don’t have easy access to defensive metrics but IIRC Dewan’s fielding bible had Bartlett at -1, so I doubt anything else will tell much of a different story than these numbers above. I also noted that Bartlett’s OPS+ the last three years has gone from 99 to 88 to 85. Not a good trend for a 28-year-old. I simply don’t see the Twins as being any better with Bartlett on the team replacing Harris on the roster and starting at shortstop.

Comment by SoCalTwinsfan | October 21, 2008 | Reply
To be fair, he played injured this year, I believe.

As for why the media, players and manager ALL give him credit, maybe they just are around him every day and see all the things he does, and since probably almost none of us ever watched TB games this year (until they played the Twins and the playoffs), I’m guessing they have a better sense of this than we do.

OTOH, players and coaches and media aren’t the most saavy sometimes when it comes to actual production vs perceived.

This just remains one of the great mysteries of our time, like the Mayan calendar….

Comment by mike wants wins | October 21, 2008 | Reply
aybe they just are around him every day and see all the things he does,

And were around Harris all last year for comparison. What is “beyond moronic” is to claim that by comparing a bunch of meaningless numbers you can contradict the observations of trained observers.

Comment by TT | October 21, 2008 | Reply