Wednesday Notes (and Neshek Joins the Podcast)
also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -
PODCAST UPDATE – Last night’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins Podcast was another successful show. Here is the guest list, with some comments:
· Jonathan Mayo – The first guest was Jonathan Mayo. He is a Senior Baseball Writer for MLB.com and you see a lot of his work at MiLB.com. He does a lot of work on the minor leagues and covering baseball’s draft. He also wrote a book that came out last spring called Facing Clemens: Hitters on Hitting Against Baseball’s Most Intimidating Pitcher. The book is excellent and gives several interesting perspectives on hitting against Clemens. There are chapters on Cal Ripken, Ken Griffey, Jr. and even the Twins Torii Hunter who we all recall never got a hit off of Clemens. Unfortunately the book, which had a foreword written by Clemens himself, was literally printing when The Mitchell Report came out. That may have hurt sales. We talked about the book for quite some time. It really is a great book, so if you’re at all interested, please go to JonathanMayo.net.
· Mark Hamburger – Following Mayo, we spent about 10-12 minutes talking to the Minnesota native, former Twins prospect and current Texas Rangers prospect. You recall that he was the player traded to the Rangers in exchange for Eddie Guardado in August. The interview was really great. Mark did a great job of telling what it was like going to a Twins tryout camp, and when the team told him that they wanted to sign him. We talked about his 95 mph fastball and what other pitches he throws. We also talked about Rangers President Nolan Ryan and when Mark first saw him! It was really just a very fun interview, and it’s always fun to see the local players do well, so we wish him the best.
· Pat Neshek – Speaking of local players that we wish nothing for the best for, Pat Neshek called in to the show and we talked about what happened to his arm since the last time we had talked to him and everything was going so well. He talked about the whirlwind that his life has been since last week when he felt the pain. We talked about his meeting with Dr. Buss, the Twins doctor, who Pat has a lot of confidence in. It is very clear that he is disappointed. You can hear it in his voice. He’s very open. He feels like he is letting a lot of people down. But the reality is that he has done everything to the best of his ability and along the plan, so it just happened. He’s got a great perspective, and I think we all know that he will get through this. Again, we wish him the best. And, I know I really appreciate the fact that on such a long, tough day, he took 15 minutes out of his evening to call in and update us.
BOOK UPDATE – If you are at all interested in a copy of my soon-to-be-released book, I am now taking pre-orders for Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook – 2009. If you are looking for information including pricing, payment and such, please click on the link. I hope to make it available online right before Thanksgiving. However, if you would like to pre-order the book, or several copies of the book (for a discounted price), check out the pre-order details and send me an e-mail. Several have mentioned the book on their blogs, and I really appreciate that, so here are some of those links.
· I mentioned this the other day, but I again want to thank Mike McFeely from the Fargo Forum who wrote about this blog and the book at his blog The McFeely State of Mind.
· PLEASE READ – Call to the Pen wrote a blog about me the other day that is somewhat comical and somewhat eye opening!
· Cory Hepola wrote an entry on his blog (SethSpeaks… Listen Up!) about this book, including some background on how we know each other. Seriously, it’s very well written!
Here are some more thoughts and notes:
· Aaron Gleeman posts several very interesting Twins notes.
· Josh Taylor tells us which players that he would add to the Twins 40 man roster before the Rule V draft. Personally, I would flip-flop Ryan Mullins and Trevor Plouffe in his list, but other than that, it makes sense. One name I haven’t mentioned previously in this discussion is Wilson Ramos. Seeing that he signed with the Twins in 2004, he is also eligible. He would certainly be taken.
· Nick Nelson wrote a great article on the two Twins players who received votes for AL Rookie of the Year. He basically is saying that both Denard Span and Nick Blackburn were not highly regarded by Twins fans coming into the 2008 season and both were excellent. Really, a great article.
· Over the Baggy penned/typed a good article asking Is India the next MLB Market?
· The Twins Geek noted that Bad Things Come in Threes.
· Please check out the updated standings in the SethSpeaks.net NFL “Expert” Picks. I’m moving up!!
· Over at Twinkie Town, cmathewson was able to get an Exclusive Interview with Baseball America’s John Manuel and they discussed Twins prospects. It is as good as anything I’ve read!
· Joe Christensen wrote a good article on Neshek’s injury and surgery.
· The main take away I have from the article, and it’s the same thing I have believed all along. The Twins bullpen should NOT be a top priority this offseason. Joe Nathan equals no worries. Matt Guerrier has been one of the game’s best, most consistent relievers over the last three years. Take away two horrific months in 2009, and he has been very good. The offseason should do him wonders. Jesse Crain was overused in 2008 as well, coming off of major shoulder surgery. He was quite solid much of the year and one of the game’s better relievers until his 2007 surgery. He should get better. Craig Breslow will be back. If Dennys Reyes is going to get JC Romero-like money from someone (3 years, $12 million), then let him go. However, I agree that this situation does mean that they should offer him arbitration. Worst case, he accepts and you have him for one more year. Best Case, he doesn’t accept it and the Twins get a supplemental first round pick in 2009. I am a fan of Jose Mijares, but let’s not forget the small sample size that he had in the big leagues. Also, opposing hitters had not seen him. I believe he will be a very good reliever for many years, but let’s not make him the next savior based on nine or ten outings. Phil Humber and Boof Bonser are not great relievers yet, but both of the stuff and talent to be very solid. I would regard Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama a notch below Mijares, but they could be solid if necessary. Guys like Ricky Barrett and Mariano Gomez could come back and both could contribute to the Twins at any time. And all of those minor league arms that we like, guys like Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship, maybe Kevin Mulvey or Yohan Pino, they could help as well. I thought it a little surprising that Carlos Gutierrez’s name was mentioned in the article, but there is a lot of depth. I just would not put finding a strong reliever as a high priority.
· In addition, I have been asked several times about the Twins trying to get Huston Street along with Garrett Atkins for a package including Michael Cuddyer and a Nick Blackburn-type pitcher, and maybe another prospect. I think that this blog and others have shown that Atkins is still not much better than a Harris/Buscher platoon. And let’s not forget that Huston Street lost his closer’s job in Oakland to Brad Ziegler. I just don’t see Street as an upgrade over either Guerrier or Crain. Would I mind getting him for cheap, sure, but I think we know that isn’t going to happen.
Arizona Fall League Update
· The Phoenix Desert Dogs played both Monday and Tuesday. Here are how the Twins players did:
· On Tuesday, Danny Valencia and Dustin Martin combined to go 0-8 with four strikeouts. The both had played better on Monday. Valencia was 1-4 with a walk and his sixth double. Martin was 1-3 with a walk, a sacrifice fly and his fourth double.
· Steve Tolleson went 0-3 with two walks on Monday, and he got the day off on Tuesday.
· Tim Lahey came in to close the game on Monday. It didn’t go well. He got two outs, but couldn’t get the third before the winning run scored. He gave up three runs on three hits and two walks.
· Rob Delaney gave up a hit in a scoreless inning. He struck out two.
· Twins Fix has a very good interview with Jeff Manship.
Any thoughts, please e-mail me, or leave Comments here.
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The main take away I have from the article, and it’s the same thing I have believed all along. The Twins bullpen should NOT be a top priority this offseason.
Which is an indication you are just being stubborn. There is a long list of guys who have yet to show they can get AAA hitters out, much less major league hitters. In terms of the major leaguers its the same people who couldn’t get the job done last year, minus Reyes. Its certainly possible one of them will step up into the 8th inning role, but adding additional options in the bullpen is clearly a need based on last year.
There was no one in the Twins minor league system at the end of last year that had showed they were ready to force their way into the bullpen next spring. Mijares performance at the major league level gives some hope that he may be ready. Humber is out of options or everyone would be projecting him back to AAA to see if that last month was a fluke.
Everyone else clearly needed more seasoning. The only positive is that there are a lot of them close to ready and maybe one will break out early. But the Twins ought to be looking for someone who they think can pitch in the 8th inning to replace Bonser or Humber in the projected bullpen. If other people step up, then so much the better. You can never have too deep a bullpen.
Guerrier’s nickname – a la Counting Crows – should be “August and Everything After”. In 2007 has pitching brilliantly for 60.7 innings with giving up just three home runs, he was tagged for six in his final 27.2 innings after July 31st. Likewise in 2008, he started by throwing 56.2 innings of proficient relief, allowing only six home runs. Post-July, he threw 19.2 innings, surrendering six home runs with a nasty 14/14 K/BB ratio. You could certainly look at the difference in a variety of ways: small sample size of four months, overuse prior to the end of the season, etc. Guerrier should be a vital part of the bullpen but he isn’t the top tiered set-up man that Neshek was. I would suspect that Crain, now a year removed from shoulder surgery, might have a better chance of emerging to fill the void left by Pat than Guerrier does.
Hey Seth, great podcast. I love hearing your inside scoop with Pat Neshek. Really feel bad for the guy.
If you got the time, I’d love it if you check out my post today on your favorite foul ball story. I’m trying to hear the story from fellow Twins bloggers.
http://twinsmvb.blogspot.com/2008/11/foul-ball-story.html
Thanks Seth!
TT: here is another way to think about it.
They won’t score as many runs w/o more extra base hitting. It is highly unlikely they’ll continue to buck a trend of decades and hit like that with RISP. So, they have two problems, bullpen and lack of extra base hits (assuming you believe the SP will hold up or get better).
Which of the two are the Twins more likely to find in their system, relief pitchers or a 3B/SS/OF that can hit for power? I say, relief pitcher. They are more likely to find 1-3 guys in their current system to be RP, than they are to fill any one of those hitting/fielding/everyday needs. Therefore, as far as I’m concerned, those should be a higher priority.
I agree with MWW
Seth, first give my best regards to Pat next time you communicate with him. Have known this young man since about his junior year in high school and all we can do is let him know we care, are thinking about him and encourage him to work hard…and God willing the best will happen!
As for Twins plans this winter, I don’t think this changes it very much. Going into the winter the Twins needed to obtain a solid middle/set-up reliever as it would have been prudent for them to not plan on Pat being back as the Pat of the past. Maybe they need to find someone (trade or free agent) a bit better than if Pat was coming back…but I don’t see their situation changing all that much because they shouldn’t count on someone coming back from a major injury.
It is highly unlikely they’ll continue to buck a trend of decades and hit like that with RISP
Last year, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau got almost 1/4 of the plate appearances with runners in scoring position. That had a lot to do with the Twins success. I think Mauer and Morneau are likely to get just as many, if not more, opportunities next year. There may be a decline in their results, but those two things will likely even out. Their hitting last year was certainly more reliable than their pitching. And looking to next year, they start out with only one pitcher who has more than one full season of proven major league success – Nathan.
Seth,
your book link for some reason links to a directory that requires userid/password to enter. Might be a wordpress bug.
Anyone know where I can get a comprehensive guide for twins minor league prospects?
Hmmm… maybe others have another idea, but I would have to get back to you.
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