What Would YOU Do? Joe Nathan Edition

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

I honestly had already started the blog entry before the Friday night debacle because I do think that it is an interesting topic for discussion. I also think that it is important to step back from any one game in making these types of decision. Much as I don’t think that the Twins front office should decide what to do with Orlando Cabrera based on what he did in the final couple of weeks. The Twins should certainly not make any decisions based on Joe Nathan’s blown save in a must-win against the Yankees in the playoffs. So, here are some quick pros and cons:

Pros

• In his six years as Twins closer, he is 22-12 with a 1.87 ERA. His WHIP has been 0.93.
• 246 saves in six seasons.
• In 2009, he set a Twins record with 47 saves. He was 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.
• After his strikeout rate dropped to 9.7 and 9.8 in 2007 and 2008, it jumped back up to 11.7 in 2009.
• Has only pitched between 67.2 and 72.1 innings in any season with the Twins.
• Want a closer who dominates the AL Central. I would say that applies to Nathan:
  • Career vs. White Sox – .151/.212/.277 (.489), 3-2, 24 Saves, 2.06 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
  • Career vs. Tigers – .153/.248/.257 (504), 2-1, 30 Saves, 1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
  • Career vs. Royals – .144/.204/.230 (.434), 3-0, 35 Saves, 0.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
  • Career vs. Indians – .201/.258/.360 (.618), 3-1, 26 Saves, 2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
• Aside from the Yankees, the only team that Nathan has a career ERA of over 2.98 is the Texas Rangers (3.72).
• Called a leader in the clubhouse, and especially in the bullpen.
• Is quite active in the community.

Cons

• Will turn 35 years old in November. How many pitchers over the age of 34 continue to dominate the way Nathan has? I know, but Mariano Rivera is a freak!
• Will make $11.25 million in 2010, $11.25 million in 2011, and has a $13.0 million option for 2012 (with a $2 million buyout). The dollars aren’t a concern, but coupled with his age, it has to be at least mentioned.
• Career vs. New York Yankees (Reg. Season Only) –
  • .255/.333/.382 (.715), 0-3, 4 Saves, 4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

I knew the Con list would be significantly shorter. Joe Nathan has been baseball’s best closer over the past six years. There is nothing about Joe Nathan, other than his ability to pitch well against the Yankees, to complain about.

So, in my mind, the big questions become:

1. Who takes over as the Twins closer?
2. What type of package could the Twins get for Joe Nathan?

Let’s start with the first. As you know, I think that any solid reliever who can dominate can be a quality closer. To expect anyone to be as good as Nathan has over the past six years is unrealistic. I do think that Jose Mijares has the stuff to get lefties and righties out (even though that wasn’t the case this year). Jesse Crain, if he is what he was in August and September, can certainly do the job. Jon Rauch? How about Anthony Slama? Or, could they bring in some hard thrower who had previously struggled as a starter to get the job done?

The second question is obviously much harder to project. Which teams need a closer, preferably National League teams. But for a dominant closer with a major track record who keeps himself in tremendous shape, you could expect to get two very solid prospects and maybe another player or two.

One philosophy that I can’t argue with is that it is better to trade a player too soon than too late. There is also a philosophy that says Joe Nathan is really, really good. Why would you trade him? Which side of the fence would you tend to lean toward? Obviously this is a no lose situation. If the Twins keep Joe Nathan, they continue to have one of baseball’s best. If they trade him, it would be for a package of players that would hopefully contribute to the Twins as long as Nathan has. To leave your thoughts, particularly additional Pros and Cons, please click here.

This is another of many, many decisions that the Twins General Manager Bill Smith will have to make after the Twins playoff run is complete (hopefully with their third World Series championship!). And when the Twins 2009 season does come to an end, the TwinsCentric group will give you a ton of great information to help you understand all of the decisions the Twins GM and present you with the opportunity to decide what you would do. (More details to come)

Uggh! Yankees 4, Twins 3

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Hey ya’ll, remember that I’m the positive Twins blogger, right? It’s been awhile since I’ve been as frustrated in a game as last night. If you listen to last night’s podcast, you will get to hear a couple of rants. That doesn’t happen too often. For 8 ½ innings, that was a great baseball game. It stayed a great baseball game, just not for Twins games, starting with the bottom of the 9^th:

Joe Nathan was named the Rolaids Relief Award winner earlier yesterday. The award goes to the top closer in the league based on some formula. Nathan had a team record 47 saves on the season. But is there anyone in Twins nation that had any confidence when Joe Nathan took the mound with a 3-1 lead for the 9^th inning in Yankees Stadium last night with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui coming to the plate? My only confidence was this… I was so sure that Joe Nathan was going to blow the save, that I assumed I must be wrong, that just maybe Nathan would actually step up and get the final three outs without coughing up the lead. That’s right, my only confidence in Nathan was that I had no confidence in him, so maybe just this one time he would come through.

But instead, he started nibbling. Sliders just off the plate. Fastballs just off the plate. Falling behind because the Yankees hitters are disciplined enough not to swing at pitches that aren’t strikes. Here’s an idea for Joe Nathan. Hey, you throw 95-96 mph, try throwing one of those over the plate earlier in the count, not after you’ve nibbled your way into a 2-1 or 3-1 count. See, then they know a fastball is coming, and hitters like Alex Rodriguez… they like those kinds of pitches. Fastballs right down the middle travel a long ways. So really, I get that you’ve got like 14 pitches, and that they work for most of the league. But this isn’t most of the league. It is the Yankees, and this is the playoffs.

But again, it was no surprise to see Joe Nathan blow a save in Yankees Stadium. That’s what he does. The Little Engine That Could (as the media loves to portray the Twins) played a great game. They outplayed the Yankees. The Twins had 12 hits, seven walks and were hit by two pitches in the game. They were not overmatched. People can point to the play where Carlos Gomez ran past second base and was tagged out by Derek Jeter before Delmon Young scored. Not a good play by Gomez, obviously a mistake. But honest, if the Twins had a 4-1 lead going into the bottom of the 9^th, that would only have meant that Nathan would have given up three runs instead of two. Twins fans can play the LF umpire for missing the Mauer should-have-been double in the 11^th, a ball that was clearly fair. But it never should have got there.

The Twins lost. The Twins did not choke. No, one player choked, and he’s been doing that in Yankees Stadium regularly since 2004. Some Twins fans look to Ron Gardenhire and his 5-27 record against the Yankees. Or they mention that the Twins are 0-9 against them this year. Well, that can’t all be put on him. Last night, he made all of the right decisions, including replacing Nathan with Jose Mijares in the 10^th.

It’s really unfortunate that the game turned out like it did because a lot of very good things happened in this game.

• Nick Blackburn was awesome!! He didn’t give up a hit until the fifth and pitched into the sixth. Had it been a normal regular season game, he would have lasted much longer, I’m sure. He got ahead (with this crazy thing called a fastball, even if it only was 89-91 mph!). He threw a lot of strikes. He had good movement on his pitches. He looked in control. Nick Blackburn again pitched big in a big game!
• The bullpen was good. Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay were terrific. Matt Guerrier had an excellent inning of work.
• Nick Punto was on base three times. He drove in a run with a single and walked twice.
• Brendan Harris will likely be the team’s 3B for the near future. He came in for Matt Tolbert at 3B and hit the big triple that gave the Twins as 1-0 lead. He also mad an incredible diving play at 3B, got up and made a good throw to 1B which Michael Cuddyer was able to pick up on the short hope for an out. Tolbert left the game with a strained oblique.
• Michael Cuddyer had three hits. Denard Span and Joe Mauer each had two. Mauer also walked twice. Nick Punto went 1-3 with two walks.

How many times this year did I count the Twins out? I believe at last count, it was 49 times that I said the Twins 2009 season was over, that there was no way that the Twins could make the playoffs. The Twins backs are up against the wall again. This time, instead of playing another AL Central foe, they are taking on the best team in baseball. They are down two games to none in a best of five series. Things certainly look bleak.

And once again, I have to think, logic tells me, that this is over. Even though the Twins are coming home for Game 3. The effects of the Joe Nathan blown save can’t help but linger. That one was hard to swallow for Twins fans.

If you have any questions or comments, click here.