SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 3 (11-21)

22 Oct

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

On Monday, I posted my choices for Twins Prospects 36-50. Tuesday, I presented my choices for Twins prospects 21-35. Today, we will see my choices for Twins prospects 11-21. Yes, that is correct, 11-21. I’ll just admit it. One of the prospects in this 11-21 range, I just completely missed, forgot as I was making my list. Just an oversight, but as we get into the Top 20, that would be a lot more difficult to hide. It would be noticed. So anyway, today we are profiling prospects 11-21, and if you want to, you can move each of the prospects I ranked between 21 and 50 down one spot. Anyway, as always, I welcome your comments. I hope you enjoy this and again, please feel free to comment.

#21 – Alex Burnett – RH RP – 22 (7/26/87)

 

#20 – Luke Hughes – 3B – 25 (8/2/84)

 

#19 – Blayne Weller – RHP – 19 (1/30/90)

 

#18 – Tyler Robertson – LHP – 21 (12/23/87)

 

#17 – Danny Rams – C/DH – 20 (12/19/88)

#16 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – 23 (6/15/86)

 

#15 – Jeff Manship – RHP – 24 (1/16/85)

 

#14 – Deolis Guerra – RHP – 20 (4/17/89)

 

#13 – BJ Hermsen – RHP – 19 (12/1/89)

#12 – Chris Parmelee – 1B/RF – 21 (2/24/88)

#11 – Joe Benson – OF – 21 (3/5/88)

 So there you have it, my selections for Twins prospects 11-21. Be sure to check back tomorrow for my choices for my Top 10 Twins Prospects. If you have any feedback, comments, opinions or suggestions, please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

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24 Responses to “SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 3 (11-21)”

  1. Funkytown October 22, 2009 at 5:58 am #

    Good work as usual.

    Currently there are 2 #21s and you have Plouffe in ex ST and Eliz.

    Thanks for making sure we all read thoroughly.

  2. roger October 22, 2009 at 6:34 am #

    Great list Seth, but who is #21? Expect you are trying to figure out how that happened…isn’t always easy trying to juggle too many things late at night?

    You know that I have Burnett ranked as having the best season of any pitcher in the organization this year. I know he is a reliever and the battles you have with that. But much of these past two years, the Twins were out of first place because of their bullpen. Gotta give the absolute best relievers their credit Seth. And Burnett has become the best in the organization.

    Only other comment I would have is that Rams had a wonderful year for a young man who had struggled. But #17 may be a tad high…in my opinion at least. But gotta love that power. Now if he can do it again next year at Beloit/Ft. Myers…then maybe he belongs in the area you have him!

  3. roger October 22, 2009 at 6:40 am #

    Question about Hughes Seth. Have you heard if he is playing winter ball anywhere? I know he cut his season short last winter because of the WBC and that he didn’t like it in Venezuela…in part because he got sick! I know he had some extra games in the World Cup, but hadn’t heard if he was returning to Aragua?

  4. Bill in Sarasota October 22, 2009 at 6:45 am #

    I have Burnett much higher but I know you downgrade relievers ratings significantly.

    It looks like you have Bashore in the top ten (too high) or not in the top 50 (deserves at least in front of Hunt).

    I assume you overlooked him.

  5. chris October 22, 2009 at 7:17 am #

    I love Bashore. I saw him pitch plenty of times in the big 10. I think the twins may of got a #3 type starter for a long time with that pick. Bashore will turn heads this year, probably in Beloit.

  6. brad October 22, 2009 at 8:18 am #

    IMO Guerra is too high. I know there is hype, but the kid hasn’t done anything to warrant the hype. If he makes it to the bigs I’ll be suprised.

    • Han Joelo October 22, 2009 at 8:29 am #

      While I admittedly tend to inflate Guerra in my mind, in the hope that he can help make the Santana trade look better, there is this–he’s only 8 months older than Hermsen. When Hermsen was a freshmen in high school, Guerra would’ve been a sophomore. But instead of pitching on the jv squad in Iowa, Guerra was pitching in the Florida State League.

      While he may not be a fast rising #1 Feliz Hernandez type, he’s held his own against older competition. And, not that it necessarily means much, but didn’t he have like a 10 strikeout game this year?

      • Brad October 22, 2009 at 4:38 pm #

        I understand that he is young, but most top end pitchers have a clue as to how to pitch before they hit AA ball. Seems the kid is just at the plate, with no clue as to how to control his stuff or how to pitch.

        I hope I am wrong!

    • clutterhear October 22, 2009 at 10:17 am #

      Next year is a huge year for Plouffe.
      Hopefully he can be answer to the question we ask every year since Guzman left. Do we have an internal solution for SS or do we have to look keep looking?

  7. mike wants wins October 22, 2009 at 9:38 am #

    Thanks for your continued work and entertaining posts Seth. I appreciate it.

  8. TT October 22, 2009 at 11:30 am #

    I think you have Hermsen and Weller overrated based on GCL performance. They may have both fallen in the draft because of signability issues. But probably not that far if they have top of the order talent.

  9. Joel Thingvall October 22, 2009 at 12:14 pm #

    Shows that the Twins do have piching potential in the wings. Not to mention Gutierrez and Slama and others above 20, but here alone you have Manship, Robertson, Hermsen and Guerra. Whew!

    Parmelee (and Rams) could be that futrue bench bat, especially if they should capabilities of backing up Morneau at first base (or trade bait).

    I look for Pridie to be gone. Just too many 4th outfielders in the Twins system. Winfree needs to be proetcted. The Twins may still have Dustin martin and Brandon Roberts in the wings. Now you have Benson…then you have those future guys like Revere, Hicks and Morales bringing up the not-too-distant rear.

    Fine, fine work, Seth!

  10. Joel Thingvall October 22, 2009 at 12:17 pm #

    Oh, yes. Hughes IS interesting. I’msure the Twins can’t remove him from the 40-man without risk of losing him. He would be a halfway decent pickup for the lower rung teams in the majors, who would hope to see major elague development and use him for tradebait. I’m sure the Twins were kinda trying to hide him a bit mroe by sending him abck to New Britain, but that doesn’t work to well when the guy could become a minors free agent (right?).

    Hughes, Harris, Valencia (even Punto depending on 2nd and SS acquisitions) could be in the mix for thirdbase in 2010, as don’t see the Twins signing someone, unless Crede remains cheap or Figgins wants to come here. I could actually see the two best getting the nod out of spring training. But hate the thopught of a 2010 infield of Casilla, Punto and, say, Harris/Tolbert/Hughes.

  11. John October 22, 2009 at 1:01 pm #

    I agree with where you have Benson and Rams. I like both despite the fact neither is a great bet to make the Bigs; in Benson’s case, he’s a tremendous pure athlete who demonstrated improved plate discipline. Rams has so much raw power… one or two adjustments and he could be a force. The odds are against him but the upside justifies a top 20 ranking.

    Weller, Hermsen, and Hughes should be lower. The pitchers don’t have great stuff at this point and GCL stats are not worth much, if anything. Hughes had a rough year and has no defensive position. He’s certainly not ready to help the Twins.

  12. mike wants wins October 22, 2009 at 1:14 pm #

    I don’t agree on Hughes. He could be a RH PH or RH DH, certainly better than the end of the bench they had this last year – much better. OTOH, he’s a guy that might not really ever get a chance – there are a ton of guys in the minors that are as good or better than the ends of benches, and are cheaper. But, MLB teams have often not given these guys shots, so I don’t know if Hughes ever gets that shot.

  13. Seth October 22, 2009 at 1:23 pm #

    Like I said, I forgot one player in this range, so what I will do is add one to all of the players that had been 21-50.

    Normally Bashore would be on the list as a 2nd round pick. However, he pitched one inning before being shut down, and now they are determining whether or not he should have Tommy John surgery. So, he’s likely to miss all of 2010, unless they figure out a rehab program to allow him to pitch some in 2010.

    I had Rams even a little bit higher, until I looked at his K rate in Beloit. Simply put, when he makes contact, he’s terrific. That’s a pretty big hurdle though.

  14. Seth October 22, 2009 at 1:25 pm #

    MWW – Regarding Hughes… if he’s truly a bench option, he shouldn’t be in my Top 20. that may be what he turns out to be… I guess my ideal situation for him is kind of a bench role, but playing 4-5 days a week at various positions.

  15. Joel Thingvall October 22, 2009 at 1:42 pm #

    If I must choose between Buscher and Hughes, I would choose Buscher. Just like the Twins have to decide between Harris or Tolbert. Casilla or Tolleson, perchance.

    • Seth October 22, 2009 at 1:53 pm #

      Wow, I don’t think I would take Buscher over anyone!

  16. J. Lichty October 22, 2009 at 2:41 pm #

    Love your prospect rankings and concise analysis. A couple things I think would enhance these for all the prospects (you already do it for some):

    1) in your projection, it would be even more informative to have a “you may remember me from such player(s) as” type of comparison of the upside to a more well known player.

    2) also would like to see where they were on your rankings in previous years – to see how the prospect is trending, and if so, why has the ranking changed.

    Again, I know you do this for some of them, and I am not trying to create more work for you, but it is information, that when I read the descriptions, I find myself wondering.

  17. mike wants wins October 22, 2009 at 4:20 pm #

    Seth, that’s an interesting question. If I KNOW that Hughes is going to be a big leaguer who occassionally DHs and is on a roster for 5+ years, is he a better prospect than a guy that may not make it at all? Clearly others appear to have higher ceilings, but I think he has a higher floor than others. It’s a tough call, but I think your way of thinking is probably right for this kind of list.

    That’s why I’d like to see some kind of categorizations of prospects (1. all star celing, starter floor; 2. probably a starter, but has flaws; 3. likely no more than a bench player, but likely to be on a roster for sure….). Those aren’t the “right” categories necessarily, but to me groupings re: floors and ceilings and likelihood of being a contributor are as interesting as ranking 1-50.

  18. down on the farm October 22, 2009 at 9:03 pm #

    Too much emphasis is placed on stats. And the stats don’t necessarily tell the story that people seem to be interpreting.

    For example, say a player goes 0 for 3 against a tough starting pitcher, then goes 2-2 against average relief pitchers. Statistically he looks very good. but scouts walk away unimpressed.

    I go to a lot of minor league games. It takes time and costs money. But I have seen most of these guys play. And I can tell you this. Most people dramatically underrate Rene Tosoni and Alex Burnett..and hugely overrate guys like McCardell, Benson, Deibinson Romero (who has absolutely no chance against good pitchers)Winfree and many others. A guy like Beresford…fellas, go watch him play. he is the furthest thing from a good prospect.

    I get a kick out of these lists. It is clear to me that you have not seen many of these guys play. And whoever is giving you your scouting reports is a bit…shall we say…”rosy”. The Twins do have some very good prospects, like Ramos, Valencia (despite what people are writing on these boards) Tosoni, Angel Morales, Hicks and Ben Revere. Dinkelman is, by the way, an excellent fielder. I have seen him make several excellent plays. he does lack the range of a Casilla..that is true, but I would take Dinkelman any day of the week. he is a very tough out…he would fit great with the Twins…why he is so devalued is beyond me. Watch him play some time…you will know.

  19. TT October 22, 2009 at 10:07 pm #

    “why (Dinkelman) is so devalued is beyond me.”

    Because the Twins farm director publicly mentioned his lack of range in evaluating his chances as a prospect. If you don’t have a defensive position, you need to hit like David Ortiz. Being a tough out in AA ball it not generally enough.

    I agree with you that too much emphasis is placed on immediate results, which is really what stats give you. But, having watched a few minor league games, you can also put way to much emphasis on your own evaluations as a fan. Even professional scouts who do nothing but watch baseball games and follow and evaluate the progress of players get fooled.

    Its hard for me to see how players like Winfree are overrated. There are about 200 players who appear for the first time each year in the major leagues. That is 6 or 7 per team and includes guys like Tommy Watkins. So anyone at 20 or below has to be considered a longshot to ever see a major league game in uniform.

    Seth made clear when he started this list that he was doing it to recognize players, even ones that may be longshots.

    One player missing from this list is Juan Morillo. The Twins will let Winfree walk as a minor league free agent, but I am not sure they will do that with Morillo. It will be interesting to see whether they give up on his arm.

  20. Rich Carlson October 25, 2009 at 9:43 am #

    Great list Seth. My question is .. at what point do players come off the list ala Duensing and Swarzak, and how long can they stay on it ala Manship? What’s the cut-off point? Thanks.

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