also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -
Last Friday, I completed my Top 50 Twins Prospects list by posting my choices for the Top 10 Twins prospects. In looking back at my Archives, I have been doing Top 50 lists since right after the 2005 season. Following the 2004 season, my first attempt was just a Top 25. I have been right on a few of them. I have been wrong on a few more. Of course, when you rank and recognize 50 prospects, it’s a given that not all of them will pan out. But it is fun to do. And it is fun to look back at. Last night, I looked back at all of my Top 50 lists and put together the below list of all of the players who have shown up on one of my post-season prospect lists. (eventually, I may add my mid-season Top 50 rankings to the chart as well). This posting is really just for fun and a nice look back to some names from the past.
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Post-2009 | Post-2008 | Post-2007 | Post 2006 | Post-2005 | Post-2004 (25) |
| Arcia, Oswaldo | 27 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Arias, Santos | 33 | 51 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Aselton, Kyle | NR | NR | NR | NR | 34 | NR |
| Baker, Scott | NR | NR | NR | NR | 2 | 2b |
| Barrett, Ricky | NR | NR | NR | NR | 44 | 22 |
| Bartlett, Jason | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 9 |
| Benson, Joe | 11 | 17 | 9 | 20 | NR | NR |
| Beresford, James | 46 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Berlind, Dan | NR | NR | 45 | NR | NR | NR |
| Bigley, Evan | 44 | 43 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Blackburn, Nick | NR | NR | 27 | NR | 12 | NR |
| Bonser, Boof | NR | NR | NR | NR | 17 | 14 |
| Bowyer, Travis | NR | NR | NR | NR | 11 | NR |
| Bromberg, David | 6 | 25 | 21 | NR | NR | NR |
| Bullock, Billy | 31 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Burnett, Alex | 21 | 30 | 8 | 32 | NR | NR |
| Burns, Deacon | NR | NR | NR | NR | 39 | NR |
| Buscher, Brian | NR | NR | 41 | NR | NR | NR |
| Casilla, Alexi | NR | NR | NR | 3 | NR | NR |
| Crain, Jesse | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 3 |
| Crawford, Tristan | NR | NR | NR | 45 | NR | NR |
| De Los Santos, Estarlin | NR | 49 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Deeds, Doug | NR | NR | NR | 30 | 24 | NR |
| Delaney, Rob | 37 | 24 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Devries, Cole | NR | 34 | 42 | NR | NR | NR |
| Dinkelman, Brian | 28 | 33 | 20 | 35 | NR | NR |
| Dozier, Brian | 41 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Duensing, Brian | NR | 20 | 4 | 13 | 35 | NR |
| Duguay, Steven | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 13 |
| Durbin, JD | NR | NR | NR | NR | 22 | 2a |
| Gabino, Armando | NR | NR | 50 | NR | NR | NR |
| Garcia, Martire | NR | 38 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Garza, Matt | NR | NR | NR | 1 | 18 | NR |
| Gassner, Dave | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 21 |
| Gibson, Kyle | 5 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Guerra, Deolis | 14 | 12 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Gutierrez, Carlos | 23 | 10 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Guzman, Garrett | NR | NR | 22 | 21 | NR | NR |
| Harben, Adam | NR | NR | NR | NR | 10 | 8 |
| Hawes, Adam | NR | NR | NR | 48 | 43 | NR |
| Hendriks, Liam | 42 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Hermsen, BJ | 13 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Herrmann, Chris | 40 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Hicks, Aaron | 1 | 1 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Hirschfeld, Steve | 39 | 44 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Hughes, Luke | 20 | 9 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Humber, Philip | NR | 36 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Hunt, Shooter | 51 | 16 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Jones, Garrett | NR | NR | NR | 36 | 25 | 5 |
| Jones, Justin | NR | NR | NR | 43 | 15 | NR |
| Kelly, Paul | NR | NR | NR | 23 | 31 | NR |
| Kepler, Max | 29 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Kirwan, Brian | NR | NR | 44 | 34 | NR | NR |
| Kubel, Jason | NR | NR | NR | NR | 3 | 1 |
| Ladendorf, Tyler | NR | 50 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Lahey, Tim | NR | NR | 51 | NR | NR | NR |
| Leatherman, Dan | NR | NR | NR | 50 | NR | NR |
| Leveret, Rene | NR | NR | 29 | NR | NR | NR |
| Lewis, Ozzie | NR | NR | 33 | NR | NR | NR |
| Liriano, Francisco | NR | NR | NR | NR | 1 | 4 |
| Lis, Erik | NR | 26 | 10 | 27 | 46 | NR |
| Lobanov, Andrei | 35 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Macri, Matt | NR | NR | 49 | NR | NR | NR |
| Manship, Jeff | 15 | 14 | 5 | NR | NR | NR |
| Marquez, Winston | 47 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Martin, Dustin | NR | 21 | 25 | NR | NR | NR |
| Matienzo, Danny | NR | NR | NR | NR | 36 | NR |
| Maza, Luis | NR | NR | NR | NR | 29 | 19 |
| McCallum, Derek | 43 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| McCardell, Mike | 25 | 18 | 36 | NR | NR | NR |
| Mijares, Jose | NR | 22 | 35 | NR | 30 | NR |
| Miller, Colby | NR | NR | NR | NR | 42 | NR |
| Miller, Jason | NR | NR | NR | NR | 38 | NR |
| Molina, Felix | NR | NR | NR | 41 | NR | NR |
| Moore, Caleb | NR | NR | NR | 49 | NR | NR |
| Morales, Angel | 2 | 3 | 32 | NR | NR | NR |
| Morales, Jose | NR | NR | 43 | NR | NR | NR |
| Morlan, Eduardo | NR | NR | 11 | 6 | 21 | NR |
| Moses, Matt | NR | NR | 40 | 15 | 5 | 10 |
| Mullins, Ryan | NR | 48 | 15 | NR | 23 | NR |
| Mulvey, Kevin | NR | 8 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Neshek, Pat | NR | NR | NR | NR | 26 | NR |
| Oeltjen, Trent | NR | NR | 48 | 9 | 27 | 25 |
| Olson, Garrett | NR | NR | NR | 33 | NR | NR |
| Olson, Justin | NR | NR | NR | NR | 48 | NR |
| Ortiz, Daniel | NR | 29 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Osterbrock, Dan | NR | 32 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Ovalle, Edward | NR | 46 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Parmelee, Chris | 12 | 13 | 6 | 11 | NR | NR |
| Perkins, Glen | NR | NR | NR | 5 | 14 | 6 |
| Peterson, Brock | NR | 42 | 18 | 17 | 47 | NR |
| Pino, Yohan | NR | 40 | 23 | 28 | NR | NR |
| Pinto, Josmil | 26 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Plouffe, Trevor | 16 | 11 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 11 |
| Portes, Juan | NR | 37 | 16 | 44 | 19 | NR |
| Pridie, Jason | NR | 31 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Rabe, Josh | NR | NR | NR | NR | 50 | NR |
| Rainville, Jay | NR | 35 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| Ramos, Wilson | 3 | 7 | 31 | NR | NR | NR |
| Rams, Danny | 17 | NR | 28 | NR | NR | NR |
| Revere, Ben | 7 | 2 | 13 | NR | NR | NR |
| Robbins, Whit | NR | 47 | NR | 22 | NR | NR |
| Roberts, Brandon | NR | NR | 39 | 14 | NR | NR |
| Robertson, Tyler | 18 | 6 | 1 | 47 | NR | NR |
| Romero, Alex | NR | NR | NR | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Romero, Deibinson | 45 | 39 | 24 | NR | NR | NR |
| Salcedo, Adrian | 10 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Sanchez, Henry | NR | NR | NR | NR | 33 | NR |
| Sano, Miguel | 8 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Santana, Ramon | 38 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Santiesteban, Danny | NR | NR | NR | 29 | NR | NR |
| Sawatski, Jay | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 23 |
| Simonitsch, Errol | NR | NR | NR | 39 | 28 | NR |
| Singleton, Steve | 24 | 28 | NR | 46 | NR | NR |
| Slama, Anthony | 22 | 27 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Slowey, Kevin | NR | NR | NR | 2 | 9 | NR |
| Smit, Alexander | NR | NR | NR | 8 | 32 | 20 |
| Sosa, Oswaldo | NR | NR | 12 | 26 | NR | NR |
| Soto, Alexander | NR | 45 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Span, Denard | NR | NR | 30 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| Stuifbergen, Tom | 30 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Swarzak, Anthony | NR | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | NR |
| Taylor, JR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 49 | NR |
| Testa, Joe | 50 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Thompson, Drew | NR | NR | NR | 31 | 37 | NR |
| Tiffee, Terry | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR | 12 |
| Tintor, Eli | NR | NR | NR | 25 | NR | NR |
| Tippett, Brad | 48 | NR | 47 | NR | NR | NR |
| Tolbert, Matt | NR | NR | 34 | 38 | NR | NR |
| Tolleson, Steve | 32 | 19 | 37 | NR | NR | NR |
| Tonkin, Michael | 34 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Tosoni, Rene | 9 | 15 | 26 | NR | NR | NR |
| Tyler, Scott | NR | NR | NR | NR | 45 | 15 |
| Valencia, Danny | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24 | NR | NR |
| Van Mil, Loek | NR | NR | NR | 42 | NR | NR |
| Waldrop, Kyle | NR | NR | 17 | 16 | 16 | 7 |
| Waltenbury, Jon | NR | 41 | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Ward, Zach | NR | NR | 38 | 40 | NR | NR |
| Weller, Blayne | 19 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| West, Kevin | NR | NR | NR | NR | 40 | 18 |
| Williams, Reggie | 49 | NR | NR | NR | NR | NR |
| Winfree, David | 36 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 20 | NR |
| Woodard, Johnny | NR | NR | NR | NR | 41 | NR |
| Yersich, Greg | NR | NR | 46 | 37 | NR | NR |
Did anything stand out? What do you think? Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.
Trent Oeltjen #9 four years ago. Cripes. Slim pickens…or another version of Joe Benson?
Kyle Waldrop was ranked pretty high out of the gate, a la Kyle Gibson.
Still, you go back and look, and there are no Sano’s or Hicks or the like.
Thanks Seth…very interesting. Pretty accurate for the most part. Tiffee #12…? There will always be some misses though. Can never tell with injuries too. It can sure ruin a promissing career.
Another list I’d love to see is how they rate as far as ready right now…no potential no position preferance just in order of “Call Up” if someone went down.
Got a good e-mail on this posting… suggesting that instead of just NR for anyone not ranked, I should have other things… So, if you go to SethSpeaks.net, I have updated the chart to show things like REL (player released), TR (player traded), ND (Not Drafted Yet, or Notre Dame in Jeff Manship’s case), NS (not signed yet).
Seth, thanks for updating with more codes than just NR. I forget, what is Swarzak’s status? Do you think he will land a job out of ST next year? Trade bait? Who is Matienzo, and if he is in ML, which team?
I don’t know why I had Matienzo as ML… He got released and I don’t think he ever signed with another team. Maybe I meant to put ML by Maza, because he’s spent time with the Dodgers the last few years.
Swarzak is likely in line for the 5th starter job, although I’m sure he’ll start in Rochester… he certainly could be used as trade bait in the right deal. He was NR since he had like 59 innings pitched and the cut-off is 50.
“Still, you go back and look, and there are no Sano’s or Hicks or the like.”
Sure there are. Matt Moses for example. We just hope they aren’t too much like Matt. You could add Francisco Liriano to that list as well. Deacon Burns generated a lot of excitment for a while … A lot of stuff can happen to a player between low A ball and the Hall of Fame.
I think Tyler Robertson is a good example of how it is difficult to make sense of players who are on the list. If he is a successful major league player will that make you right, since you ranked him the Twins top prospect at one point? Or wrong because you ranked him the 47 prospect the year before?
Here are the players in the major leagues who were left off the top 50 at least once during their minor league career:
Nick Blackburn
Alex Casilla (?)
Jose Mijares
Jose Morales
Matt Tolbert
I think those are the real misses. When you pick 50 players, you shouldn’t miss guys who have major league talent. (Of course you WILL miss some, but you shouldn’t).
That’s exactly right. Matt Moses was supposed to be a sure-thing hitter.
Casilla came to the Twins and the next year he went from FM to NB to the Twins, so he was ranked #3. The next year, he got a bit of time with the Twins so he was no longer eligible for the list.
I admit, I look at ceiling. That’s why Morales and Tolbert have missed it before. Tolbert = major league utility player. Morales = backup catcher. Other guys simply have higher ceilings than role players, but the reality is that being a big league role player means they’re still a big leaguer… whereas the high ceiling guys may never reach AAA.
In my mind, that’s the beauty of the Prospect rankings. You just never know.
Seth,
It’s amazing to me that you didn’t totally miss more “winners”. Guerrier maybe? Also, very few underrated guys (Blackburn, Mijares, Span, Morales, Neshek, and arguably Tolbert, Bonser, Buscher), and even fewer overrated (Casilla, Perkins?). Complete misses among the “losers”? Again, very few (JD Durbin, Moses, and then Smit, Harben, and a few others, and some of those are injury-related (Waldrop, Rainville). On balance, you have really done a superlative job with this exercise. Congratulations, and thank you.
My only quibble is with your tendancy to not discount players more markedly for defensive deficiencies, and plodders also. Examples: Deacon Burns, Kevin West, and recently Winfree, Lis, Rams, and Hughes. But that’s my bias more than yours for sure. Nice job!
Geurrier was White Sox draftee and the to the PiRATs and then the Twins claimed him in 03.
First off, great job and great idea. It shows that once a prospect hits top 10 he usually makes the majors. It also shows the positional talent that is coming up the ranks, back 5 years ago almost all the top talent were pitchers.
Excellent job of charting the Twins system. In some ways, this is even a better look and brings up lots of questions.
Where is Cole DeVries and Dan Osterbrock in 2010?
Armando Gabino made the majors, was listed as #50 three years ago, only sighting on the Top Prospect list here.
Anegl Morales went from 32 to 3, but hasn’t hit the high minors yet.
Jone Morales was only at 43 and 34. Hummmmmmm.
Trent Oeltjen went from 25 down to 7 and back up to 48 before walking to Arizona, where he got to play. Same with Alex Romero, who was listed as high as 7th and also at 10th before walking. Garrett Guzman was a 20-level prospect before he walked.
Parmelee hangs between 11-6-13. Whew. Matt Moses was the same, except he shot up to #40 and then disappeared. That he is still with the Twins is a surprise.
What ever happened to Travis Bowyer, #11 one year, and traded to Florida. Closer in training who never re-materialized. Wonder if the same might be said of Eddie Morlan, who was #11 and #6 before advancing to #21 and traded to the Rays.
Adam Harben, 10-8, was a top prospect, traded away, who never did anything.
Why did Duensing, 35-15-4-20, make it. But not Simonitsch, 39-28.
Is Swarzak really a 5-2-4-4 guy? I guess he showed signs in some games, but maybe the others were all attitude.
Span was highly thought of…16-8-14, until Hunter was traded and he slipped to #30. He proved us all wrong.
Is Tolbert’s 34-38 any better than Tolleson’s 32-19-27, or Luke Hughes 9-20. Why Hughes and Tolleson didn’t get a shot to shine in 2009 is beyond me, since both were on the 40-man.
Crain was a #3 once, why Neshek was #26. Perkins showing up as 5-14-6 should outshine Balckburn’s 12-27, Boof’s 14-17, even Garza’s 18-1.
Pridie is a 31. Josh Rabe was a 50. Dustin Martin is a 25-21. Brandon Roberts is a 39-14. Benson is a 20-11. Lis was as high as 46, as low as 10, now a 26. Whit Robbins appeared first at 22, then skipped, then 47, then skipped again. Winfree has gone from 36-23-14-7 and now back to 20, borderline, right?
Hey, the Twins traded Pino…40-23-28. Great loss? Yet Sosa is still around and hasn’t even placed the last two seasons after being #12 and #26. No Mata? No Fox?
What’s with Robertson, 18-6-1-47.How can you go from 47 to one and now 18, Seth? Waldrop fell off the radar the past two seasons after a 17-16-16-7. Sadly, Rainville retired.
Is Juan Portes a prospect. No found this year. Before was 37-16-44-19. And Brock Peterson also disappeared after 42-18-17-47. Will he walk like Garrett Jones who was not a prospect after three years showing of 36-25-5.
My favorite is the Real Deal, J.D. Durbin, who had a couple of shots and was at 22 when you fist did this, then was #2…yes, he was struggling, but the Twins had to keep him or lose him. They did lose him. Where is J.D. now?
Go back five years and here are the players who have pretty much established themselves as major league players:
Baker, Scott 2
Kubel, Jason 3
Span, Denard 8
Slowey, Kevin 9
Blackburn, Nick 12
Garza, Matt 18
Neshek, Pat 26
Mijares, Jose 30
These guys are major league players but still trying to establish themselves:
Liriano, Francisco 1
Perkins, Glen 14
Bonser, Boof 17
Duensing, Brian 35
These guys have played in the major leagues, but not for a full season:
Romero, Alex 7
Jones, Garrett 25
Oeltjen, Trent 27
Maza, Luis 29
These guys are pretty much failures who have not contributed significantly at the major league level and are not likely to in the future:
Moses, Matt 5
Rainville, Jay 6
Harben, Adam 10
Bowyer, Travis 11
Jones, Justin 15
Morlan, Eduardo 21
Durbin, JD 22
Deeds, Doug 24
Simonitsch, Errol 28
Sanchez, Henry 33
Aselton, Kyle 34
Matienzo, Danny 36
Thompson, Drew 37
Miller, Jason 38
Burns, Deacon 39
West, Kevin 40
Woodard, Johnny 41
Miller, Colby 42
Hawes, Adam 43
Barrett, Ricky 44
Tyler, Scott 45
Lis, Erik 46
Peterson, Brock 47
Olson, Justin 48
Taylor, JR 49
Rabe, Josh 50
These guys are still prospects:
Swarzak, Anthony 4
Plouffe, Trevor 13
Winfree, David 20
These guys are probably still prospects but no longer on Seth’s top 50 list:
Waldrop, Kyle 16
Portes, Juan 19
Mullins, Ryan 23
Kelly, Paul 31
Smit, Alexander 32 (taken on waivers)
Here is my take on how they would rate if you were looking at them with 20-20 hindsight
Garza, Matt 18
Kubel, Jason 3
Span, Denard 8
Baker, Scott 2
Slowey, Kevin 9
Blackburn, Nick 12
Mijares, Jose 30
Liriano, Francisco 1
Perkins, Glen 14
Duensing, Brian 35
Neshek, Pat 26
Bonser, Boof 17
You can assume similar results for this year’s list although it looks like Seth has started to rank recent high choices higher. Perhaps that is a result of the performance of guys like Garza and Duensing.
It is interesting to note that not one player ranked after 35 in 2006 ever became a major league player.
One other thing. Of the players listed as Not Rated in 2006, Morales, Casilla and Tolbert have contributed at the major league level.
Great stuff TT. Again, Casilla was not with the Twins after the 2005 season, so that’s why he was an NR at the time.
I think we could all say that Liriano established himself like no one else, but then came the injury which has certainly made his status drop. But then again, you can say the same thing for Waldrop, Rainville and several others. I personally don’t know that I’d put Garza ahead of Kubel or Span at this point, but he’d certainly be top 3-5. Of course, all that could be argued.
Another good point is that it makes sense that no one ranked after 30 or 35 would be a major contributor. I mean, not that many players actually make it to the big leagues. I personally have chosen to rank 50 for the primary purpose of recognition for more players.
I like the 5 year review. I did those a couple of years ago, and should probably update it.
“I personally have chosen to rank 50 for the primary purpose of recognition for more players. ”
I know and that makes sense. But I am not sure that is clear to some people that the last 15-20 players may be no more likely to contribute at the major league level than players left off the list.
I have been doing annual reviews of Baseball America’s top ten from ten years ago. It really does take that long to know how players will turn out. Even at that, after this year’s performance, I probably underrated Cuddyer on some of those lists.
As for Garza versus Kubel or Span, I think we forget sometimes that we can’t really agree on who the best players are even after the fact. It is unlikely that the difference between the number one and two prospects is going to be meaningful, unless the number one guy projects as a future hall-of-famer like Joe Mauer. Or Delmon Young…