SethSpeaks Prospect History

27 Oct

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Last Friday, I completed my Top 50 Twins Prospects list by posting my choices for the Top 10 Twins prospects. In looking back at my Archives, I have been doing Top 50 lists since right after the 2005 season. Following the 2004 season, my first attempt was just a Top 25. I have been right on a few of them. I have been wrong on a few more. Of course, when you rank and recognize 50 prospects, it’s a given that not all of them will pan out. But it is fun to do. And it is fun to look back at. Last night, I looked back at all of my Top 50 lists and put together the below list of all of the players who have shown up on one of my post-season prospect lists. (eventually, I may add my mid-season Top 50 rankings to the chart as well). This posting is really just for fun and a nice look back to some names from the past.

 

Post-2009 Post-2008 Post-2007 Post 2006 Post-2005 Post-2004 (25)
Arcia, Oswaldo 27 NR NR NR NR NR
Arias, Santos 33 51 NR NR NR NR
Aselton, Kyle NR NR NR NR 34 NR
Baker, Scott NR NR NR NR 2 2b
Barrett, Ricky NR NR NR NR 44 22
Bartlett, Jason NR NR NR NR NR 9
Benson, Joe 11 17 9 20 NR NR
Beresford, James 46 NR NR NR NR NR
Berlind, Dan NR NR 45 NR NR NR
Bigley, Evan 44 43 NR NR NR NR
Blackburn, Nick NR NR 27 NR 12 NR
Bonser, Boof NR NR NR NR 17 14
Bowyer, Travis NR NR NR NR 11 NR
Bromberg, David 6 25 21 NR NR NR
Bullock, Billy 31 NR NR NR NR NR
Burnett, Alex 21 30 8 32 NR NR
Burns, Deacon NR NR NR NR 39 NR
Buscher, Brian NR NR 41 NR NR NR
Casilla, Alexi NR NR NR 3 NR NR
Crain, Jesse NR NR NR NR NR 3
Crawford, Tristan NR NR NR 45 NR NR
De Los Santos, Estarlin NR 49 NR NR NR NR
Deeds, Doug NR NR NR 30 24 NR
Delaney, Rob 37 24 NR NR NR NR
Devries, Cole NR 34 42 NR NR NR
Dinkelman, Brian 28 33 20 35 NR NR
Dozier, Brian 41 NR NR NR NR NR
Duensing, Brian NR 20 4 13 35 NR
Duguay, Steven NR NR NR NR NR 13
Durbin, JD NR NR NR NR 22 2a
Gabino, Armando NR NR 50 NR NR NR
Garcia, Martire NR 38 NR NR NR NR
Garza, Matt NR NR NR 1 18 NR
Gassner, Dave NR NR NR NR NR 21
Gibson, Kyle 5 NR NR NR NR NR
Guerra, Deolis 14 12 NR NR NR NR
Gutierrez, Carlos 23 10 NR NR NR NR
Guzman, Garrett NR NR 22 21 NR NR
Harben, Adam NR NR NR NR 10 8
Hawes, Adam NR NR NR 48 43 NR
Hendriks, Liam 42 NR NR NR NR NR
Hermsen, BJ 13 NR NR NR NR NR
Herrmann, Chris 40 NR NR NR NR NR
Hicks, Aaron 1 1 NR NR NR NR
Hirschfeld, Steve 39 44 NR NR NR NR
Hughes, Luke 20 9 NR NR NR NR
Humber, Philip NR 36 NR NR NR NR
Hunt, Shooter 51 16 NR NR NR NR
Jones, Garrett NR NR NR 36 25 5
Jones, Justin NR NR NR 43 15 NR
Kelly, Paul NR NR NR 23 31 NR
Kepler, Max 29 NR NR NR NR NR
Kirwan, Brian NR NR 44 34 NR NR
Kubel, Jason NR NR NR NR 3 1
Ladendorf, Tyler NR 50 NR NR NR NR
Lahey, Tim NR NR 51 NR NR NR
Leatherman, Dan NR NR NR 50 NR NR
Leveret, Rene NR NR 29 NR NR NR
Lewis, Ozzie NR NR 33 NR NR NR
Liriano, Francisco NR NR NR NR 1 4
Lis, Erik NR 26 10 27 46 NR
Lobanov, Andrei 35 NR NR NR NR NR
Macri, Matt NR NR 49 NR NR NR
Manship, Jeff 15 14 5 NR NR NR
Marquez, Winston 47 NR NR NR NR NR
Martin, Dustin NR 21 25 NR NR NR
Matienzo, Danny NR NR NR NR 36 NR
Maza, Luis NR NR NR NR 29 19
McCallum, Derek 43 NR NR NR NR NR
McCardell, Mike 25 18 36 NR NR NR
Mijares, Jose NR 22 35 NR 30 NR
Miller, Colby NR NR NR NR 42 NR
Miller, Jason NR NR NR NR 38 NR
Molina, Felix NR NR NR 41 NR NR
Moore, Caleb NR NR NR 49 NR NR
Morales, Angel 2 3 32 NR NR NR
Morales, Jose NR NR 43 NR NR NR
Morlan, Eduardo NR NR 11 6 21 NR
Moses, Matt NR NR 40 15 5 10
Mullins, Ryan NR 48 15 NR 23 NR
Mulvey, Kevin NR 8 NR NR NR NR
Neshek, Pat NR NR NR NR 26 NR
Oeltjen, Trent NR NR 48 9 27 25
Olson, Garrett NR NR NR 33 NR NR
Olson, Justin NR NR NR NR 48 NR
Ortiz, Daniel NR 29 NR NR NR NR
Osterbrock, Dan NR 32 NR NR NR NR
Ovalle, Edward NR 46 NR NR NR NR
Parmelee, Chris 12 13 6 11 NR NR
Perkins, Glen NR NR NR 5 14 6
Peterson, Brock NR 42 18 17 47 NR
Pino, Yohan NR 40 23 28 NR NR
Pinto, Josmil 26 NR NR NR NR NR
Plouffe, Trevor 16 11 3 19 13 11
Portes, Juan NR 37 16 44 19 NR
Pridie, Jason NR 31 NR NR NR NR
Rabe, Josh NR NR NR NR 50 NR
Rainville, Jay NR 35 19 18 6 24
Ramos, Wilson 3 7 31 NR NR NR
Rams, Danny 17 NR 28 NR NR NR
Revere, Ben 7 2 13 NR NR NR
Robbins, Whit NR 47 NR 22 NR NR
Roberts, Brandon NR NR 39 14 NR NR
Robertson, Tyler 18 6 1 47 NR NR
Romero, Alex NR NR NR 10 7 17
Romero, Deibinson 45 39 24 NR NR NR
Salcedo, Adrian 10 NR NR NR NR NR
Sanchez, Henry NR NR NR NR 33 NR
Sano, Miguel 8 NR NR NR NR NR
Santana, Ramon 38 NR NR NR NR NR
Santiesteban, Danny NR NR NR 29 NR NR
Sawatski, Jay NR NR NR NR NR 23
Simonitsch, Errol NR NR NR 39 28 NR
Singleton, Steve 24 28 NR 46 NR NR
Slama, Anthony 22 27 NR NR NR NR
Slowey, Kevin NR NR NR 2 9 NR
Smit, Alexander NR NR NR 8 32 20
Sosa, Oswaldo NR NR 12 26 NR NR
Soto, Alexander NR 45 NR NR NR NR
Span, Denard NR NR 30 12 8 16
Stuifbergen, Tom 30 NR NR NR NR NR
Swarzak, Anthony NR 5 2 4 4 NR
Taylor, JR NR NR NR NR 49 NR
Testa, Joe 50 NR NR NR NR NR
Thompson, Drew NR NR NR 31 37 NR
Tiffee, Terry NR NR NR NR NR 12
Tintor, Eli NR NR NR 25 NR NR
Tippett, Brad 48 NR 47 NR NR NR
Tolbert, Matt NR NR 34 38 NR NR
Tolleson, Steve 32 19 37 NR NR NR
Tonkin, Michael 34 NR NR NR NR NR
Tosoni, Rene 9 15 26 NR NR NR
Tyler, Scott NR NR NR NR 45 15
Valencia, Danny 4 4 7 24 NR NR
Van Mil, Loek NR NR NR 42 NR NR
Waldrop, Kyle NR NR 17 16 16 7
Waltenbury, Jon NR 41 NR NR NR NR
Ward, Zach NR NR 38 40 NR NR
Weller, Blayne 19 NR NR NR NR NR
West, Kevin NR NR NR NR 40 18
Williams, Reggie 49 NR NR NR NR NR
Winfree, David 36 23 14 7 20 NR
Woodard, Johnny NR NR NR NR 41 NR
Yersich, Greg NR NR 46 37 NR NR

Did anything stand out? What do you think? Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

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16 Responses to “SethSpeaks Prospect History”

  1. Han Joelo October 27, 2009 at 11:50 pm #

    Trent Oeltjen #9 four years ago. Cripes. Slim pickens…or another version of Joe Benson?

    Kyle Waldrop was ranked pretty high out of the gate, a la Kyle Gibson.

    Still, you go back and look, and there are no Sano’s or Hicks or the like.

  2. BB-STC October 28, 2009 at 8:53 am #

    Thanks Seth…very interesting. Pretty accurate for the most part. Tiffee #12…? There will always be some misses though. Can never tell with injuries too. It can sure ruin a promissing career.

  3. Scott October 28, 2009 at 9:17 am #

    Another list I’d love to see is how they rate as far as ready right now…no potential no position preferance just in order of “Call Up” if someone went down.

  4. Seth October 28, 2009 at 9:18 am #

    Got a good e-mail on this posting… suggesting that instead of just NR for anyone not ranked, I should have other things… So, if you go to SethSpeaks.net, I have updated the chart to show things like REL (player released), TR (player traded), ND (Not Drafted Yet, or Notre Dame in Jeff Manship’s case), NS (not signed yet).

    • j-sin October 28, 2009 at 9:43 am #

      Seth, thanks for updating with more codes than just NR. I forget, what is Swarzak’s status? Do you think he will land a job out of ST next year? Trade bait? Who is Matienzo, and if he is in ML, which team?

      • Seth October 28, 2009 at 9:50 am #

        I don’t know why I had Matienzo as ML… He got released and I don’t think he ever signed with another team. Maybe I meant to put ML by Maza, because he’s spent time with the Dodgers the last few years.

        Swarzak is likely in line for the 5th starter job, although I’m sure he’ll start in Rochester… he certainly could be used as trade bait in the right deal. He was NR since he had like 59 innings pitched and the cut-off is 50.

  5. TT October 28, 2009 at 12:10 pm #

    “Still, you go back and look, and there are no Sano’s or Hicks or the like.”

    Sure there are. Matt Moses for example. We just hope they aren’t too much like Matt. You could add Francisco Liriano to that list as well. Deacon Burns generated a lot of excitment for a while … A lot of stuff can happen to a player between low A ball and the Hall of Fame.

    I think Tyler Robertson is a good example of how it is difficult to make sense of players who are on the list. If he is a successful major league player will that make you right, since you ranked him the Twins top prospect at one point? Or wrong because you ranked him the 47 prospect the year before?

    Here are the players in the major leagues who were left off the top 50 at least once during their minor league career:

    Nick Blackburn
    Alex Casilla (?)
    Jose Mijares
    Jose Morales
    Matt Tolbert

    I think those are the real misses. When you pick 50 players, you shouldn’t miss guys who have major league talent. (Of course you WILL miss some, but you shouldn’t).

    • Seth October 28, 2009 at 12:38 pm #

      That’s exactly right. Matt Moses was supposed to be a sure-thing hitter.

      Casilla came to the Twins and the next year he went from FM to NB to the Twins, so he was ranked #3. The next year, he got a bit of time with the Twins so he was no longer eligible for the list.

      I admit, I look at ceiling. That’s why Morales and Tolbert have missed it before. Tolbert = major league utility player. Morales = backup catcher. Other guys simply have higher ceilings than role players, but the reality is that being a big league role player means they’re still a big leaguer… whereas the high ceiling guys may never reach AAA.

      In my mind, that’s the beauty of the Prospect rankings. You just never know.

  6. birdofprey October 28, 2009 at 12:53 pm #

    Seth,

    It’s amazing to me that you didn’t totally miss more “winners”. Guerrier maybe? Also, very few underrated guys (Blackburn, Mijares, Span, Morales, Neshek, and arguably Tolbert, Bonser, Buscher), and even fewer overrated (Casilla, Perkins?). Complete misses among the “losers”? Again, very few (JD Durbin, Moses, and then Smit, Harben, and a few others, and some of those are injury-related (Waldrop, Rainville). On balance, you have really done a superlative job with this exercise. Congratulations, and thank you.

    My only quibble is with your tendancy to not discount players more markedly for defensive deficiencies, and plodders also. Examples: Deacon Burns, Kevin West, and recently Winfree, Lis, Rams, and Hughes. But that’s my bias more than yours for sure. Nice job!

    • brad October 29, 2009 at 7:47 am #

      Geurrier was White Sox draftee and the to the PiRATs and then the Twins claimed him in 03.

  7. brad October 29, 2009 at 7:49 am #

    First off, great job and great idea. It shows that once a prospect hits top 10 he usually makes the majors. It also shows the positional talent that is coming up the ranks, back 5 years ago almost all the top talent were pitchers.

  8. Joel Thingvall October 30, 2009 at 10:45 am #

    Excellent job of charting the Twins system. In some ways, this is even a better look and brings up lots of questions.

    Where is Cole DeVries and Dan Osterbrock in 2010?

    Armando Gabino made the majors, was listed as #50 three years ago, only sighting on the Top Prospect list here.

    Anegl Morales went from 32 to 3, but hasn’t hit the high minors yet.

    Jone Morales was only at 43 and 34. Hummmmmmm.

    Trent Oeltjen went from 25 down to 7 and back up to 48 before walking to Arizona, where he got to play. Same with Alex Romero, who was listed as high as 7th and also at 10th before walking. Garrett Guzman was a 20-level prospect before he walked.

    Parmelee hangs between 11-6-13. Whew. Matt Moses was the same, except he shot up to #40 and then disappeared. That he is still with the Twins is a surprise.

    What ever happened to Travis Bowyer, #11 one year, and traded to Florida. Closer in training who never re-materialized. Wonder if the same might be said of Eddie Morlan, who was #11 and #6 before advancing to #21 and traded to the Rays.

    Adam Harben, 10-8, was a top prospect, traded away, who never did anything.

    Why did Duensing, 35-15-4-20, make it. But not Simonitsch, 39-28.

    Is Swarzak really a 5-2-4-4 guy? I guess he showed signs in some games, but maybe the others were all attitude.

    Span was highly thought of…16-8-14, until Hunter was traded and he slipped to #30. He proved us all wrong.

    Is Tolbert’s 34-38 any better than Tolleson’s 32-19-27, or Luke Hughes 9-20. Why Hughes and Tolleson didn’t get a shot to shine in 2009 is beyond me, since both were on the 40-man.

    Crain was a #3 once, why Neshek was #26. Perkins showing up as 5-14-6 should outshine Balckburn’s 12-27, Boof’s 14-17, even Garza’s 18-1.

    Pridie is a 31. Josh Rabe was a 50. Dustin Martin is a 25-21. Brandon Roberts is a 39-14. Benson is a 20-11. Lis was as high as 46, as low as 10, now a 26. Whit Robbins appeared first at 22, then skipped, then 47, then skipped again. Winfree has gone from 36-23-14-7 and now back to 20, borderline, right?

    Hey, the Twins traded Pino…40-23-28. Great loss? Yet Sosa is still around and hasn’t even placed the last two seasons after being #12 and #26. No Mata? No Fox?

    What’s with Robertson, 18-6-1-47.How can you go from 47 to one and now 18, Seth? Waldrop fell off the radar the past two seasons after a 17-16-16-7. Sadly, Rainville retired.

    Is Juan Portes a prospect. No found this year. Before was 37-16-44-19. And Brock Peterson also disappeared after 42-18-17-47. Will he walk like Garrett Jones who was not a prospect after three years showing of 36-25-5.

    My favorite is the Real Deal, J.D. Durbin, who had a couple of shots and was at 22 when you fist did this, then was #2…yes, he was struggling, but the Twins had to keep him or lose him. They did lose him. Where is J.D. now?

  9. TT October 30, 2009 at 3:26 pm #

    Go back five years and here are the players who have pretty much established themselves as major league players:

    Baker, Scott 2
    Kubel, Jason 3
    Span, Denard 8
    Slowey, Kevin 9
    Blackburn, Nick 12
    Garza, Matt 18
    Neshek, Pat 26
    Mijares, Jose 30

    These guys are major league players but still trying to establish themselves:

    Liriano, Francisco 1
    Perkins, Glen 14
    Bonser, Boof 17
    Duensing, Brian 35

    These guys have played in the major leagues, but not for a full season:

    Romero, Alex 7
    Jones, Garrett 25
    Oeltjen, Trent 27
    Maza, Luis 29

    These guys are pretty much failures who have not contributed significantly at the major league level and are not likely to in the future:

    Moses, Matt 5
    Rainville, Jay 6
    Harben, Adam 10
    Bowyer, Travis 11
    Jones, Justin 15
    Morlan, Eduardo 21
    Durbin, JD 22
    Deeds, Doug 24
    Simonitsch, Errol 28
    Sanchez, Henry 33
    Aselton, Kyle 34
    Matienzo, Danny 36
    Thompson, Drew 37
    Miller, Jason 38
    Burns, Deacon 39
    West, Kevin 40
    Woodard, Johnny 41
    Miller, Colby 42
    Hawes, Adam 43
    Barrett, Ricky 44
    Tyler, Scott 45
    Lis, Erik 46
    Peterson, Brock 47
    Olson, Justin 48
    Taylor, JR 49
    Rabe, Josh 50

    These guys are still prospects:
    Swarzak, Anthony 4
    Plouffe, Trevor 13
    Winfree, David 20

    These guys are probably still prospects but no longer on Seth’s top 50 list:
    Waldrop, Kyle 16
    Portes, Juan 19
    Mullins, Ryan 23
    Kelly, Paul 31
    Smit, Alexander 32 (taken on waivers)

    Here is my take on how they would rate if you were looking at them with 20-20 hindsight

    Garza, Matt 18
    Kubel, Jason 3
    Span, Denard 8
    Baker, Scott 2
    Slowey, Kevin 9
    Blackburn, Nick 12
    Mijares, Jose 30
    Liriano, Francisco 1
    Perkins, Glen 14
    Duensing, Brian 35
    Neshek, Pat 26
    Bonser, Boof 17

    You can assume similar results for this year’s list although it looks like Seth has started to rank recent high choices higher. Perhaps that is a result of the performance of guys like Garza and Duensing.

    It is interesting to note that not one player ranked after 35 in 2006 ever became a major league player.

  10. TT October 30, 2009 at 3:33 pm #

    One other thing. Of the players listed as Not Rated in 2006, Morales, Casilla and Tolbert have contributed at the major league level.

  11. Seth October 30, 2009 at 4:29 pm #

    Great stuff TT. Again, Casilla was not with the Twins after the 2005 season, so that’s why he was an NR at the time.

    I think we could all say that Liriano established himself like no one else, but then came the injury which has certainly made his status drop. But then again, you can say the same thing for Waldrop, Rainville and several others. I personally don’t know that I’d put Garza ahead of Kubel or Span at this point, but he’d certainly be top 3-5. Of course, all that could be argued.

    Another good point is that it makes sense that no one ranked after 30 or 35 would be a major contributor. I mean, not that many players actually make it to the big leagues. I personally have chosen to rank 50 for the primary purpose of recognition for more players.

    I like the 5 year review. I did those a couple of years ago, and should probably update it.

  12. TT October 30, 2009 at 8:47 pm #

    “I personally have chosen to rank 50 for the primary purpose of recognition for more players. ”

    I know and that makes sense. But I am not sure that is clear to some people that the last 15-20 players may be no more likely to contribute at the major league level than players left off the list.

    I have been doing annual reviews of Baseball America’s top ten from ten years ago. It really does take that long to know how players will turn out. Even at that, after this year’s performance, I probably underrated Cuddyer on some of those lists.

    As for Garza versus Kubel or Span, I think we forget sometimes that we can’t really agree on who the best players are even after the fact. It is unlikely that the difference between the number one and two prospects is going to be meaningful, unless the number one guy projects as a future hall-of-famer like Joe Mauer. Or Delmon Young…

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