Live Twins Chat at 12:30 Today

I will be taking your Twins-related questions from 12:30-1:30 this afternoon. I will open up the chat room 15-20 minutes early so you can get your questions in. We can talk about The MVP (the award will be announced at 1:00), the 40 man roster, free agents, trades, rumors, or anything.

If you are interested in getting an e-mail reminder, participating or watching the live chat, or reading the Archives later, please Click Here.

Hope you can Join!

Mauer for MVP?

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Do I think that Joe Mauer should win the American League MVP award today when it is announced at 1:00 central time today? Of course I do. I mean, he had one of the most historic seasons in baseball history even if you forget the disclaimer that he did it as a catcher. I also have to admit to being 100% biased in that opinion. It is an opinion that is shared by many people around the baseball community. However, will it be the opinion of enough of the 32 baseball writers that actually get to submit a vote for the award? We shall find out this afternoon.

Again, I am completely biased, so I thought it would be good to put together a smorgasbord of numbers to determine if we, as Twins fans, are completely accurate in our opinion that Mauer should be the easy choice. In writing that, I do fully acknowledge the concept that the definition of “value” is not and should not be 100% about the numbers. I fully believe that the Most Valuable Player is not the same thing as the Most Outstanding Player, although it can. I 100% believe that no one statistic should be used to determine value. I think that there is value in defense and that value should be a factor into the vote. That said, I still have not found a defensive stat that I believe shows that, although UZR (and the UZR family of stats) are probably the closest we have at this point. I believe that it is the League MVP, a measure of how much more value you had over all players, not just players at your position in your league. I believe that an MVP candidate should be from a team that competed most of the year for a playoff spot, but I don’t think that making the playoffs should be mandatory. In other words, if the Twins had lost Game 163 and not made the playoffs, would that have lessened what Joe Mauer did? Or, because Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers lost to the Twins, I don’t believe his case is lessened. That said, I have no problem with a voter dropping Cabrera’s value ranking following his late-season binge drinking and arrest on domestic dispute charges. Finally, I believe that this is an annual award, not a lifetime achievement award. So many in the media want Derek Jeter to win, almost as a Lifetime Achievement Award. No. First, that diminishes just how great a season he had in 2009, and second, that isn’t what this award is. He will get his Lifetime Achievement when he becomes a first-ballot, inner-circle Hall of Fame recognition.

I have become one of those fans/bloggers who finds less and less meaning in these postseason awards. I get more annoyed with people bashing Derek Jeter because he is loved by the media. I get annoyed by everyone who says that there is a certain number that is more important than another. I get annoyed by the stats-crowd that wants to throw a bunch of advanced metrics in your face and tell you how to think. But I also get annoyed by the people who, like I am becoming, find almost no meaning in the awards. The reality is that when a player is considered for the Hall of Fame, things like MVPs and Cy Youngs seem to matter. Ask Bert Blyleven. So, we can’t really say it means nothing.

So, what I want to do today is just throw a bunch of things out there for your own consideration. I want to look at the basic statistics, the raw numbers, because I do think that they matter. But it would be silly to simply overlook any of the advanced statistics when they can tell us something. So, let’s start with the basic statistics:

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	G	2B	HR	RBI
Joe Mauer	0.365	0.444	0.587	1.031	138	30	28	96
Mark Teixeira	0.292	0.383	0.565	0.948	156	43	39	122
Derek Jeter	0.334	0.406	0.465	0.871	153	27	18	66
Miguel Cabrera	0.324	0.396	0.547	0.943	160	34	34	103
Kendry Morales	0.306	0.355	0.569	0.924	152	43	34	108
Ben Zobrist	0.297	0.405	0.543	0.948	152	28	27	91

Joe Mauer became the first player in a long time to win the True Triple Crown (BA, OBP, SLG). His rate numbers make him the leading candidate. But if you look at the raw numbers, you can see why many believe that Mark Teixeira is a very strong candidate. The others have been mentioned and have put up great numbers in their own right. Derek Jeter and Ben Zobrist don’t necessarily look like candidates by these numbers, but when you consider they are middle infielders, those numbers are much more impressive, as you will see below.

Player	RC	RC27	WPA	WAR	Dollars	VORP	WARP
Joe Mauer	128.0	9.85	3.64	8.2	$36.8	91.0	9.00
Mark Teixeira	128.6	7.73	3.58	5.1	$23.2	54.7	5.80
Derek Jeter	120.0	7.20	1.41	7.4	$33.4	72.8	5.70
Miguel Cabrera	122.5	7.55	1.59	5.4	$24.3	57.1	5.10
Kendry Morales	106.0	6.77	2.42	4.2	$18.8	39.8	4.00
Ben Zobrist	111.2	8.12	4.10	8.6	$38.5	61.0	7.60

Runs Created and Runs Created per 27 again are numbers attempting to show value, and the RC27 does so by looking at it as a rate. Ben Zobrist shows up quite prevalently when looking at these stats. First, he led the way in Win Probability Added, which measures each situation in a ball game and each player’s plate appearances has an effect on the game, depending upon the situation (Score, base runners, outs, etc.). Also, since he spent a lot of time at 2B, his value compared to other second basemen (WAR = Wins Above Replacement from FanGraphs.com, VORP, WARP, etc.). Of course, Derek Jeter’s value increases because he is a SS and Joe Mauer ranks highly as a catcher. My intent in showing these more advanced metrics isn’t to convince you to buy into them. I don’t necessarily buy into them. And, as you can see from FanGraphs.com’s WAR and Baseball Prospectus’s WARP, you can take different numbers with the same goal in mind and come out with different results.

Hey, if you only look at the basic stat lines, you will find a ton of players who are deserving of consideration. Guys like Kevin Youklis, Jason Bay, Jason Bartlett and even Michael Cuddyer put up stat lines that are very impressive. But in order to separate and distinguish, it can be quite helpful to look a little deeper.

• The Case For Joe Mauer – Lead the AL in Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS. Played catcher which is not only the most demanding position to play, it increases his value above replacement players. He played very good defense. He led an (at times) make-shift starting rotation, and he played well down the stretch for a team that came from far back to win the AL Central.
• The Case for Mark Teixeira – The best player on the best team that money could buy in baseball. He led the American League in home runs and RBI, traditional stats that the baseball writers put much value in. He played 1B, but he was a Gold Glove winner.
• The Case for Derek Jeter – Put together one of his best seasons, all-around. He won another Gold Glove Award. Fans voted him the Hank Aaron Award winner, which is meant to go to the top hitter in the league (which is a bit silly). All those fun intangibles.
• The Case for Miguel Cabrera – His numbers are remarkably similar to Teixeira, although his defense improved, it’s nowhere near as good as Teixeira.
• The Case for Kendry Morales – His numbers were terrific too.
• The Case for Ben Zobrist – He played a lot of 2B, which means that his terrific offensive numbers were compared against average 2B, so his replacement player statistics are terrific. He also played all three outfield positions, all four infield positions, DH and PH for the Rays.
• The Case Against Joe Mauer – First and Foremost, Mark Teixeira had a tremendous season. Second, Mauer did miss an entire month of games. Fortunately for him, it was the first month. Remember in 2008, Carlos Quentin was an AL MVP favorite until he missed the final month of the season with injury?
• The Case Against Mark Teixeira – He was terrific, but the Yankees team as it was comprised in 2009 probably still would have won a ton of games without him. His numbers were great, but how much better were they than those of fellow AL 1B such as Morales, Cabrera, Justin Morneau (had he stayed healthy), Carlos Pena and others?
• The Case Against Derek Jeter, Kendry Morales, Miguel Cabrera and Ben Zobrist – All had tremendous seasons, and they should not be minimized, but simply put, this should be a two player race.

The winner will be announced at 1:00 central time, and I’m sure Twins fans will be waiting on pins and needles. I know it’s not a big deal, but it is still pretty cool to have an MVP on your roster… In 2010, the Twins will have two, regardless of what is announced! If Teixeira wins, Twins fans and stat heads alike will be outraged, but take a closer look, it may not (and probably shouldn’t be) the blowout that we all hope that it is.

What are your thoughts? If so, Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here.

Twins to Add Six to 40 Man Roster

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I learned tonight that the Twins will be adding six players to their 40 man roster before Friday’s deadline for that decision. What I don’t know is who was removed from the 40 man roster. If the Twins don’t sign any of their internal free agents (Crede, Pavano, Cabrera, Redmond, Cabrera) before 11:00 tonight, they would still need to take at least one player off of their current 40 man roster to get to 40. If they want to have 39 or even 38 on their roster at this stage, it would mean that more would need to be removed.

Out of respect to the player or players that are removed from the 40 man roster, those that weren’t added, and to the Twins, I won’t post the names… but I would welcome your thoughts and comments. Please scroll down the page and check out my thoughts on Monday… I can tell you this. One player that the Twins will add to the 40 man roster was not even mentioned by me in that article.

To be honest, I’m not sure when I’m going to post the names (so be sure to check back from time to time). Maybe later tonight. Maybe tomorrow morning. Maybe I will wait until the Twins send out their press release. I’m really going back and forth in my mind about whether I should sooner, or if I should even post this. I can tell you that they will be adding four pitchers and two infielders. Obviously as soon as I am able, I will provide a little analysis.

UPDATE – Please note that if the Twins sign free agents or make trades, the 40 man roster can still be changed. One important thing to remember is that if a player is added to the 40 man roster, he can’t be removed for a period of time (I want to say six months). Also, I still do not know which player(s) have been removed from the 40 man roster, so I will update that at a later time.

 

Danny Valencia – The 25 year old 3B was an easy choice.

Alex Burnett – With what Burnett did in his first year as a relief pitcher at Ft. Myers and New Britain, he was also an easy selection.

Deolis Guerra – 20 years old and very talented. Another easy addition.

Rob Delaney – The reliever has been so dominant since he was signed. He too would certainly be selected in the Rule 5.

Loek Van Mil – He’s 7-1 and throws 97 mph. He had a very good year once he started pitching this year. He still needs more development time, but he has a chance to be quite good.

 Alright, those five were actually the five that I would have ranked the highest in terms of likelihood to be protected. The final one added to the 40 man roster was someone that I am more than a little bit surprised by.

Estarlin de Los Santos – The SS from the Dominican Republic is very talented. He just has not been able to stay in the lineup the last two years. He’s a flashy SS with good speed and lots of doubles and triples. I was actually going to call him a sleeper candidate in the 2010 Twins Prospect Handbook, but if he’s on the 40 man roster, he’s not much of a sleeper anymore. I just can’t imagine a scenario in which he would remain on a team’s big league roster for the entire 2010 season.

 So, who was left off? Who could be lost in the Rule 5 draft?

 According to my rankings of those available, here are a few that could be lost:

Steve Singleton – He can play three infield positions, hit for average, get on base and has good pop for a middle infielder. His success at AA late in the season says that he could make a big league roster and stick.

Brian Dinkelman – Dinkelman had a very strong season at New Britain. He hits the gaps for a lot of doubles. He’s an ideal #2 hitter in a lineup. As a four year college guy, he’s a little bit older, but he could definitely be ready to be a major league regular, either at 2B or as an infield/outfield utility type as he played quite a bit of LF in 2009 as well.

Santos Arias – Young pitcher from the Dominican. Very good fastball. Very good changeup. Still has a long way to go on a curveball/slider. He’s tiny, but he has been very durable. He could be worth a flyer for a team under development.

 Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here.

NFL “Expert” Picks – Week 11

Click here for the Week 11 picks from our Expert Panel! The Week 10 winner was Kevin Slowey, so congratulations to him. Let’s see how he and the rest of our group does this week.

Twins Notes

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Hopefully you have all had a chance to listen to last night’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast. Danny Valencia led off the show, and we talked about everything from his time in New Britain, his promotion to Rochester, playing winter ball in Puerto Rico, his thoughts on what it would mean to be added to the 40 man roster on Friday, his offseason and much more, including his thoughts on trying to make blogger TT happy! J Next on the agenda was a very good interview with Steve Singleton. We discussed his time down in Arizona, the level of play, what he’s learned about himself through playing there, his thoughts on what it would mean to be added to the 40 man roster, fantasy football, and much more. After that, I was able to discuss some other Twins related topics and answer a few questions. So again, if you haven’t yet listened to the show, you can listen to it by going here. It’s pretty cool to have two guests on last night who could conceivably both be with the Minnesota Twins sometime in 2010.

Speaking of podcasts, I will be a guest on Twins Talk podcast tonight at 9:00 p.m. central time which is hosted by Jack Steal of Fanatic Jack Talks Twins and also Topper Anton of Curve for a Strike. Also on tonight’s show will be Andrew Bryz-Gornia of Off the Mark.

The Twins have eight minor league free agents. According to Baseball America, they are: David Winfree, Brock Peterson, Alejandro Machado, Brian Buscher, Matt Moses, Oswaldo Sosa, Frank Mata and Reid Santos. It is likely that the Twins will try to retain a couple of them, but others they will just let go elsewhere. In my opinion, there are only three that they should try to retain.

• The first choice would be David Winfree. He is just 24 years old and had a very solid year in his first AAA season. He is a right-handed bat with some power. He may never hit for average and doesn’t get on base at a great clip, but I would think they would be happy to have him stay.
• Brock Peterson had a very strong second half in Rochester last year, arguably the team’s top hitter the last few months. He is another right handed bat with a little power. He plays 1B, and the Twins have a guy who plays there. They also have a backup in Michael Cuddyer and may end up signing a bench bat there as well. Also, Erik Lis has spent the last two years hitting well at AA New Britain. He likely will move up to Rochester. Also, Whit Robbins plays an excellent 1B and was an All-Star in AA Eastern League last year. He may have an opportunity to move up to AAA. If not, Peterson could be brought back, especially since Justin Huber is not coming back.
• Frank Mata is the third that I would try to bring back. He is a Tommy John survivor from a few year ago, and he throws very hard. He may or may not have a big league future, but I think he’s got the kind of stuff that is worth giving another year to.

There are several other former Twins minor leaguers who now find themselves as free agents. Since I follow the Twins minor league system so closely, I still am interested in following the careers of former players. Here are those players and the team that they played with in 2009:

• Bobby Korecky (Arizona), Trent Oeltjen (Arizona), Mariano Gomez (Atlanta), Luis Rivas (Cubs), Doug Deeds (Cubs), Michael Restovich (White Sox), Alexander Smit (Reds), Korey Feiner (Reds), Lew Ford (Reds), Levale Speigner (Marlins), Michael Ryan (Marlins), Casey Daigle (Astros), Tim Raines, Jr. (Royals), Henry Bonilla (Dodgers), JD Durbin (Dodgers), Danny Ardoin (Dodgers), Luis Maza (Dodgers), James Tomlin (Dodgers), Mike Lamb (Mets), Tristan Crawford (Phillies), Terry Tiffee (Phillies), Matt Kinney (Giants), Ramon Ortiz (Giants), Julio DePaula (Rays), Rashad Eldridge (Rays), Justin Jones (Nationals).

I apologize for not posting my thoughts on the Twins 2010 uniforms. Maybe I’m weird, but I just don’t find that to  be an exciting piece of news. I like them. They’re cool. I like the gray ones because they’re at least a little bit different. I know it’s all important, but I’d much prefer to talk about free agents, trade targets and 40 man roster decisions.

Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times wrote a book called Evaluating Baseball Managers which will be released soon.  He provided a fun excerpt of the book. It was a section on Billy Martin when he was with the Twins in 1969.

As Joe Christensen mentioned in his blog today, the AL Manager of the Year will be announced this afternoon and Ron Gardenhire should receive strong consideration. I know that many blog readers disagree many times with Gardy, but he has to be considered for the award. My personal vote would go to Ron Washington of the Rangers, but then I could make a case for either Mike Scioscia or Gardy for 2^nd place. If Gardy finishes second yet again, he could officially be named the Susan Lucci of baseball!

Alright, that is it for today. Are there any other Twins topics of note? If so, Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here.

Danny Valencia on Podcast Tonight

One of the Twins top prospects, and certainly the prospect closest to big-league ready, Danny Valencia, will be a guest on tonight’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins Podcast. The show will air live tonight at 9:00 central time. This will be Valencia’s second appearance on a podcast. We will talk to him about his 2009 season, his offseason, winter ball, the possibility of being added to the 40 man roster, and much more.

We haven’t had a podcast in two weeks, so there are several other topics that we will cover to get all caught up. So, please check out the show live. We will be happy to take your questions in the chat room. There is also a call in number. Oh, and who knows? There could be more guests as well!

So, join us at 9:00 central time for the SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast by going to www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SethSpeaks.

What Would You Do? 40 Man Roster Decisions

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Over the next week to ten days, the Twins will have to make some final decisions on their 40 man roster. There will be some tough decisions.

But before we get started, I should point out that it appears that Juan Morillo will now come off of the Twins 40 man roster as he has signed with a team in Japan. I wrote about that possibility here last week when I could come up with only one reason for his addition to the Twins 40 man roster. It appears that the Twins should have temporarily kept Justin Huber on the 40 man roster too as he is close to signing in Japan as well and the Twins may have got some money for him as well.

Technically the Twins have 40 players on their 40 man roster. However, the Twins five internal free agents will come off of the roster unless the Twins decide to sign one of them quickly. There are (too many) rumors about the Twins talking to Orlando Cabrera about playing 2B. That would be horrible, so we can assume that won’t happen. Right? There is also talk of conversations with Scott Boras regarding Joe Crede. Again, I understand some think that would be a good thing. Personally, I am just not a fan of that idea. Carl Pavano would be a solid #4 type of pitcher and the Twins should consider the idea of bringing him back, if the price is right. However, the assumption is that there will be several teams interested in his services, and hence, he probably would not sign quickly. Ron Mahay would make sense if the Twins didn’t have several other left-handers who could either start or be a second lefty reliever. Mike Redmond is a good guy and a good teammate, but bringing him back makes no sense.

So, I will work under the assumption that all five will be off of the 40 man roster, which would put the Twins at 35.

If you checked out the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook (which is still available as an e-book or a print version), there was an article on the 40 man roster called “Nine to Note.” Information was given on nine players that the Twins should consider adding to the 40 man roster. Of those nine players to consider, two of them (David Winfree and Brock Peterson) were not added to the 40 man roster and can become free agents. The Twins can bring them back if they want, but they will not be added to the 40 man roster. And to this point, the only player added to the Twins 40 man roster was Juan Morillo, who was not even considered among the nine. And now I don’t look quite so dumb!

So, let’s get back to this week. Again, the Twins are likely going to be at 35 players on the 40 man roster. If that is the case, there are four spots available. However, are there others that can be removed from the 40 man roster? Last week, Justin Huber was removed. The Twins tried to take Armando Gabino off of the 40 man roster, but in doing so, he was claimed by the Orioles. So as the Twins make these decisions, they will have to consider a couple of things. If the Twins take the player off of the 40 man roster, would they be lost to another organization? Is the player that would be added better (or a better fit for need) than the one who would be removed? 

With that, let’s take a look at a few guys that the Twins could consider removing from the 40 man roster:

• Bobby Keppel – in 2009, the Twins saw what Keppel can be. They saw the very good and the saw the very bad, all within his three month stint with the team. Since he is out of options, he would have to make the Twins roster and stay on it, or potentially be lost. With Morillo and Bonser also out of options, and Pat Neshek likely coming back at some point, what are the chances of Keppel making the Twins roster?
• Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek – All three are arbitration eligible this year. All three have had injuries and missed time in the last couple of years. All three have experienced big league success. And, I am pretty sure that if taken off the 40 man roster, all three of them would be gone.
• Glen Perkins – It’s hard to imagine that he will be back with the Twins, but can he be traded?
• Drew Butera – Can’t hit. Led International League in Passed Balls, but still known to do a good job of calling games and throwing. Can’t hit. At all. There are a lot of backup catchers around who can throw runners out who will play for $750,000, if the Twins even needed that.
• Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steve Tolleson, Nick Punto, Trevor Plouffe – They’re all the same. Play a little defense. Play a couple of positions. Hit once in a while, but not necessarily well. How many backup infielders are needed? Obviously Punto and his $4 million deal aren’t going anywhere. Casilla is out of options. Plouffe is at least young. He is probably the only player who would be lost if left unprotected. He would certainly be claimed.
• Deibinson Romero – He’s all about the tools, apparently. He’s a big guy, strong. And, the reality is that he hasn’t actually produced much since he was in the rookie leagues. He’s 23 already. The tools are all there. The effort has been questioned.
• Luke Hughes – I keep hearing people say that he could be removed. If he is, he would be claimed by the first team who could. He’s not going anywhere.
• Jason Pridie – very good defense. Left-handed bat who refuses to walk. Has some pop in his bat. With Carlos Gomez now gone, the Twins need a 5^th outfielder who can play all three outfielders, including centerfield. Other option would be to let him go and sign a veteran outfielder who could pinch hit. Pridie does have one more option year left.

OK, so we started at 35. Will the Twins sign any of those five internal free agents before the 40 man roster is set? How many from the current 40 man roster would you remove?

Now let’s consider the players who would have to be added to the 40 man roster or left subject to the Rule 5 draft. Note that if they are not selected in the Rule 5 draft, they would stay in the organization unless they are six year minor league free agents. 

The Obvious Additions:

• Danny Valencia – Whether everyone considers him the 3B of 2010, or the 3B of the Future, or a possible 3B, he has experienced success at each level including AAA. If left unprotected, he would be gone.
• Deolis Guerra – He’s 20. He showed much improved control in 2009. He’s got three potentially big league pitches. He’s had success in AA. Again, this is an easy choice as his potential alone makes him a target for some Rule 5 team.
• Alex Burnett – The Rule 5 is about finding players with either high upside and can be hidden on a roster, or about guys who can contribute to any degree with the big league club. Burnett fits into both categories as he could already contribute to a big league team’s bullpen and he has tremendous upside in a bullpen.

Must Strongly Consider:

• Loek Van Mil – He’s 7-1, and he throws 95-97. He should probably be in the obvious category too. His strikeout numbers don’t shout out at you, but the stuff does. Tall pitchers take a little longer to develop because they need to find their release point. As an international player, you can assume a longer learning curve too. Adding him to the 40 man roster gives three more years to develop. But again, his pitching angle and the velocity make Van Mil a likely choice.
• Rob Delaney – since being signed as a non-drafted free agent out of college in 2006, Delaney has dominated the minor leagues. He gets strikeouts and he walks very few. He struggled some in Rochester, but I think his track record makes him an easy choice. The fact that he could help a big league bullpen today makes him an easy choice. How many bullpen guys will they put on the roster? That’s the only question.
• Steve Singleton – Good glove. Can play 2B, 3B and SS. Can hit 2^nd in a batting order, or at the bottom of the order. Can hit for average. Is best when he is patient. Has good power for a middle infielder. Lots of doubles and triples. Can play very good defense.
• Brian Dinkelman – Put up terrific numbers in New Britain. Doubles machine. He is two years older than Singleton. Played a lot of LF once Singleton promoted to AA. That gives him a better chance of being added. Defense is not spectacular either place, but he does make almost all the plays.

Should at least think about:

• Santos Arias – The Dominican righty had a very good year in 2009 in Ft. Myers. Good fastball. Durable. Very good changeup. Has a lot of room to grow.
• Winston Marquez – Left-handed. Young. Throws hard. Good slider. Missed 2008 with injury and Twins were patient with him in 2009.
• Matt Fox – Again, he could pitch in the big leagues, in the back of a bullpen. He could handle it well mentally. And the former #1 pick has been able to get stronger and better each year since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Also, his cutter is very tough on lefties.

Others that are eligible include Juan Portes, Kyle Waldrop, Estarlin de Los Santos, Dustin Martin, Whit Robbins, Ramon Santana, Matt Williams, Brandon Roberts, Ryan Mullins, Frank Mata, Mark Dolenc, Rene Leveret, Jair Fernandez, and Alexander Soto.

Also, Rene Tosoni, David Bromberg and Anthony Slama do not need to be added to the 40 man roster at this time, so they will not be added.

Again, you’re starting at 35 players. You can take a few more off of the 40 man roster. You could quickly sign some of your internal free agents. You will want to add a bunch. Do you want to fill all 40 roster spots, or do you keep one or two open so that you can take a pick or two in the Rule 5 draft. What do you think? What would you do? Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here.

Last Day in Arizona

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Football picks – be sure to check out our panel’s Week 10 football picks here.

Thanks as always for stopping by the site. As you know, I went to the Phoenix Municipal Stadium this afternoon to watch the Phoenix Desert Dogs (the team the Twins players played on last year) and the Mesa Solar Sox (the team the Twins prospects player for this year).  The Mesa Stadium was about 13 miles from Downtown Phoenix. The cab ride out there… $35.00! And of course, they wouldn’t take any credit card, so I was at the Arizona Fall League game with $14.00. I had to get a program/media guide thing for $2.00. Oh, and the ticket itself was $6.00 (which is really a great deal!) So, I was down to $6.00. Fortunately, I was watching some of baseball’s top prospects in Arizona where it was 71 degrees, comfortable and exciting. I forgot the fact that I hadn’t eaten the entire time because I figured I should keep $6.00 for just in case.

I got to the stadium about an hour before the gates even opened. There were about six people there. They were all standing around outside the stadium, waiting for the Mesa team bus to arrive so that they could collect autographs. They were standing around talking baseball issues. One guy insisted Roger Maris was a Hall of Famer. Others said Kirby Puckett shouldn’t be. There was discussion of steroids in baseball and Pete Rose. They talked about collecting autographs and much more. It was entertaining. When the Mesa bus finally got there, that group went active. But most of the team just walked in the stadium.

One hour before game time (11:35), the gates opened. The autograph hounds went to the area by the Mesa dugout. Some members of players’ families to seats around the stadium. Scouts from major league organizations trickled in, sitting directly behind home plate. Me? I went in and just observed. I watched Alex Burnett, Spencer Steedley and Steve Hirschfeld play catch in the outfield grass. I sat by the dugout, just taking in the stadium and all that was going on. Mesa players would come out of the dugout and start out to stretch in the outfield, but each would quickly go over to the autograph seekers and sign for a couple of minutes. 

The game started and all three Twins hitters were in the lineup. Rene Tosoni was batting third and playing in right field. Chris Parmelee was batting fifth and playing 1B. Steve Singleton was at 2B and batting seventh. Since Hirschfeld started last night, he wouldn’t pitch, but I was hoping to see Spencer Steedley and Alex Burnett.

• 1^st inning – With Bryan Peterson on 3B and one out, Rene Tosoni dropped a soft line drive into left field for an RBI single. Chris Parmelee struck out swinging on a curveball in the dirt. In the bottom of the inning, with runners on 1^st and 2^nd, Grant Desme singled into right field, Tosoni charged and made a strong throw right to the cutoff man, holding the lead runner at 3B.
• 2^nd inning –  With Ryan Kalish on 1B, Steve Singleton lined a single to left field between the SS and 3B. He later scored from 2B on a single to RF by Bryan Peterson. Rene Tosoni popped up to 1B.
• 3^rd inning – Chris Parmelee drilled a line drive single up the middle to lead off the inning. Ryan Kalish got on with an infield single. Then Steve Singleton fell behind 0-2 before getting a fastball which he hit well over the right field wall. Rene Tosoni grounded out to the pitcher to end the inning. (Note – I’ve got video of the Singleton HR, a Tosoni RBI single and a bunch of pictures on my facebook page, which you can find here.)
• 4^th inning – Chris Parmelee hit a long fly ball to the CF warning track, just in front of the 410 sign. Steve Singleton struck out on a curveball to end the inning.
• 5^th inning – Spencer Steedley came into the game. It didn’t start out well. The first batter doubled down the right field line. Brad Emaus singled him to 3B. But then Steedley got lefty Matt Angle to strike out on a good fastball. Next, Darin Mastroianni grounded to Jose Iglesias who fed the ball to Steve Singleton who turned a very quick double play to get out of the inning.
• 6^th inning – Rene Tosoni was called out on strikes. In the bottom of the inning, Steedley got a groundout to start the inning. Danny Espinosa singled on a perfect bunt down the 3B line. Then came a very strange play. Corey Brown grounded to 3B Casey Kelly. He threw to Singleton at 2B who stayed in strong against the sliding base runner, threw to 1B where the runner was called safe. But the runner was also called safe at 2B, and I wish I had a replay. My guess is that Singleton had one foot on each side of 2B. I truly don’t know. But Singleton was charged with a “missed catch errors” which makes no sense either. Wouldn’t it be a fielder’s choice instead? Anyway, with one out, Grant Desme flew out to Tosoni in RF. The lead runner forgot how many outs there were and Tosoni got a nice, easy assist.
• 7^th inning – Chris Parmelee led off with a double down the left field line, the third ball he has hit very well since the strike out. With one out, Steve Singleton flew out to medium deep right field. Parmelee tagged up and went to 3^rd. However, the Dogs appealed to 2B and Parmelee was called out. Again, from the angle I was sitting at, it appeared that Parmelee tagged up legally. Steedley came out of the game. Singleton made two nice defensive plays in the bottom of the inning.
• 8^th inning – in the bottom of the inning, Singleton made a nice running grab on a pop up in foul territory. After a single, Jemile Weeks uncoiled on a long home run that essentially ended the game.
• 9^th inning – Tosoni struck out swinging. The game ended when Parmelee grounded weakly to 1B.

OK, so there is the game information… here are just some more observational things on the players. 

• Rene Tosoni – With the bat, Tosoni is solid. He does a good job of working the count. He has a quick bat and a good eye. He runs alright. He expects himself to get on base. He is confident. He isn’t real big, but he looks like a ballplayer. That said, he can’t hit left-handed pitching at all. I mean, even when he gets out against right-handers, they are solid at bats. Against lefties, he looks clueless. Fortunately, he still stays patient, so that gives hope that over time, he could get better. Defensively, he just looks like an outfielder. Good speed, but seems very good with the glove, and again, a strong and accurate arm.
• Chris Parmelee – He is a big guy; bigger than I would have thought, and not necessarily in a good way. But he is very strong. When he makes contact, it is solid contact. Today, he had a single up the middle, a deep fly ball to right CF and a double down the left field line. That’s a good sign that he uses the whole field. And, he is typically patient at the plate too. Defensively, he looked pretty bad on a pop up behind him near the 1B line, but other than that, he did a nice job of scooping balls.
• Steve Singleton – Seems to do better when he takes a couple of pitches, even if he falls behind. He will use the whole field. He’s not big, but he’s got a very strong swing. He has very quick hands. He can certainly hit a good fastball, but he can get out in front of offspeed pitched if mixed up well. Defensively, he had two errors in this game, but one was a ridiculous call by the umpire and shouldn’t have been called an error, and the other was a tough play to his backhand side. He has as quick a turn on a double play as I’ve seen since Luis Rivas. He holds his own at 2B on the pivot. He is very smooth defensively.
• Spencer Steedley – he’s a little guy, left-handed. Surprising that he’s able to hit 91-92 on the fastball based on his size, but now I can better understand why he does record quite a few strikeouts. Has a decent offspeed pitch .Today he threw strikes and was successful, but walks have really hurt him this fall. He looks like he can be a big league LOOGY if necessary.

There are certain players that just look like ball players, and I think that Tosoni and Singleton look like ball players. Parmelee looks Adam Dunn . Doesn’t look like a great athlete, but could have a ton of power. Here are some others that I think are worth watching:

• Bryan Peterson – Florida Marlins – OF – Wow!! This guy has some talent. Defensively, he is excellent. I saw him cover some serious ground in Centerfield today. He also made about three or four throws that showed off a tremendously strong and accurate arm. Offensively, he takes pitches and rips shots. Line drives, but he has some pop in his bat too. And he is very fast. He had two triples in today’s game.
• Danny Espinosa – Washington Nationals – SS – excellent glove, strong arm, good range. Good top of the order hitter who hits a lot of line drives and can bunt well.
• Nevin Ashley – Tampa Bay Rays – C – terrific catch-and-release, strong and accurate arm. And, he’s been hitting well in Arizona. Of course, he’s 25 and spent the full season in Hi-A ball, but seems to be some talent.
• Josh Bell – Baltimore Orioles – 3B – He is 6-3 and 235 pounds and he hits everything hard. That said, he appears to be a dead pull hitter.
• Grant Desme – Oakland A’s – OF – The power appears to be legit. He hit a home run today and hit some deep fly balls. The old saying is that the ball just sounds different coming off of his bat, and that is the case with Desme.
• Casey Kelly – Boston Red Sox – 3B/P – Kelly is 6-3 and listed at 194, but he looks a little bigger than that. Pretty solid glove at 3B. He’s so young and has a lot to improve upon, but again, he looks like a ball player. Obviously he’s got a very strong arm.
• Jose Iglesius – Boston Red Sox – SS – The Cuban defector signed a nice $8.3 million deal with the Sox. He is the 2^nd youngest player, still just 19 years old. He looks very young. He’s listed at 5-11 and 175 pounds, but he’s not that big. Next to Kelly, he’s tiny. Swings at everything. Decent speed, and just looks good out on defense.
• Starlin Castro – Chicago Cubs – SS/2B – He is the youngest player in the league, almost three months younger than Iglesius. He looked pretty smooth at 2B on Thursday night. He had to go to the dentist today though.

Finally, one other quick Twins related note. I learned the Mike McCardell was dropped from the Solar Sox roster at the end of October. He got some bone chips removed from his elbow. He is down in Florida rehabbing and doing very well.

I will be up early on Saturday morning and heading back to Minnesota. Getting away is great, but there’s nothing better than going home.  

What do you think? Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here.

Update from Arizona

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Football picks – be sure to check out our panel’s Week 10 football picks here.

Good morning, everyone! This may not be a real long update, but I thought I would send a quick site update and some thoughts on my first Arizona Fall League experience. After going to four classes/sessions at the Green Build show in Phoenix, I quickly did what I could to get to Ho Ho Kam Stadium in Mesa. Game time was 6:35 mountain time. I rushed a couple of blocks to the lite rail station only to find out that if I had boarded that train, I would have headed west instead of east. Good thing I couldn’t figure out the system. I had to walk two blocks further to catch the train going east. So, I got on the train and about 18 miles later, I was in Mesa, the end of the lite rail track. So, I call the taxi cab company, and 20 minutes later, the cab driver picks me up. I tell him that I’m going to the stadium, gave him the address, and he had no clue where it was. None. So, we went back west quite a ways before he realized we couldn’t be going the right direction. What should have been a $10.00 was suddenly a $25.00 trip. Fortunately the guy realized he got lost and only charged me $15.00. But I was there, in the fourth inning.

And, the only Twins player that played in the game was Steve Hirschfeld. He gave up two runs on one hit in three innings. He walked three and struck out three. Yes, he went the first three innings. Remember, I got there in the fourth inning. I was really hoping to see Hirschfeld pitch.

But that is OK. It was still a lot of fun to be there. It was fun to be one of 536 people in attendance. I don’t know if that counts the section of scouts behind home plate. As a baseball fan, going to the Arizona Fall League is just one of those things you have to do. It was cool being that close to the field. It was great watching outdoors baseball in mid-November. It was actually pretty cool, weather-wise, as well, and yet really comfortable. And again, it’s baseball. It’s some of the best prospects in the game. Josh Vitters, Cubs 3B prospect looks like he’s about 15 (he’s actually 20). Starling Castro is only 19. Orioles 3B Josh Bell just looked like a ball player. Corey Brown is an OF for the Phoenix team (and the A’s) was 3-3 with two walks and a homer off of Hirschfeld. Remember Adam Loewen? He was a pitcher for the Orioles, or at least a pitching prospect, for several years and got many opportunities with that team. But injuries really stunted his career. He was moved to the OF a year ago, and now he is hitting .179 for Phoenix. PJ Phillips was Mesa’s CF. He is with the Angels organization. He looks like a very young Torii Hunter. He’s tall and lanky and fast. He is Hunter circa 1998.

Many of the players on both team are up on the top step throughout the game. Steve Singleton was frequently encouraging teammates. Rene Tosoni looks so similarly to Michael Cuddyer.

I know that I can’t wait to see the game on Friday afternoon. I hope to get there on time, or maybe even early. Fortunately the two teams play in Phoenix this time. I will pay particular attention to the Twins players. So at some point, be sure to check back for more information.

What do you think? Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here

Twins Notes

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Hey ya’ll, a couple of long days in Phoenix, so I don’t have much time, but here is a place that you all can post Twins comments and thoughts, especially in the event that something happens at a time in which I am not around a computer, which will again be most of tomorrow.

Mauer Wins Gold… Again…

Looks like Joe Mauer has become a reputation pick already in this category. Don’t get me wrong, he is no Torii Hunter. That is, he still is a good catcher (unlike Hunter the “gold-glove-winning CF” of the Angels… seriously, how is Torii Hunter still a Gold Glove winner while Franklin Gutierrez isn’t? Anyway.) Joe Mauer is a very good defensive catcher, no doubt, and good for him. He’s gained the respect of the AL Managers who vote for this award. But good for him and good for the Twins. Maybe I’m under-reacting. I just can’t get terribly excited about the gold glove award. Who in the American League is better? Here are the likely candidates: Gerald Laird, AJ Pierzynski, Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach, Miguel Olivo, Jason Varitek, Jorge Posada, Jose Molina, Dioner Navarro, Gregg Zaun, Matt Weiters, Mike Napoli, Jeff Mathis, Ivan Rodriguez, Kurt Suzuki. OK, maybe Mauer is the winner by default. Those of you that look at catcher’s defense, let me know who else is better?

Twins Release Two More

The Twins released catcher Jeff Christy and OF Ozzie Lewis. Neither move comes as a big surprise, but the Christy release makes me wrong and Thrylos right. I can admit that! J I think that the Twins value top defensive catchers, and Christy certainly was that. But he made Drew Butera look like a silver slugger candidate with the bat, and much of that, to be fair, was a complete lack of playing time. With the likelihood that Wilson Ramos and Drew Butera will be at Rochester and Danny Lehmann, Allan De San Miguel, and Jair Fernandez could be in New Britain, it is good to make Christy a free agent with the opportunity to find another team. Again, as I have been spending some time working on the 2010 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, here is more information on Jeff Christy. And you will see that it isn’t a tremendous loss to the organization.

Jeff Christy – C – (4/13/84)

Acquired: 6^th round pick in 2006 from U. of Nebraska

2009 Team(s): New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings

2009 Stats: .181/.252/.196, 2-2B, 0 HR, 11 RBI

The Twins place a tremendous amount of value on pitching and on catchers that can help pitchers become better. Jeff Christy is another example of just that. In 2009, Christy split time as the backup catcher at New Britain [AA] and Rochester [AAA]. His OPS in 29 games at AA was .459, and in 21 AAA games, it was just .432. As a backup catcher, he played about once a week. To his credit, he takes good at bats and is willing to move runners along. Defensively, he is a guy that pitchers really like throwing to. He calls a good game, gives a good target and frames the ball well. He has an average arm, but he is very accurate. Christy is a smart guy, and realizes that he is a backup catcher. That can be a big adjustment.

Ozzie Lewis was the Twins 21^st round pick in 2007 out of Fresno State. He was the Appalachian League MVP that year. In 2008, he moved up to Beloit and was hurt most of the season. He was healthy in 2009, but with the Twins outfield situation as it is, he will not get opportunities with the Twins, so again, this is a fair move.    

PODCAST TONIGHT

Be sure to check out Fanatic Jack’s Twins Podcast tonight at 9:00 central time. He was joined by co-host Topper Anton, and later in the show, The Twins Geek.

THE TRANSACTION NOT MADE

I talked the other day about the minor league transactions involving Justin Huber, Juan Morillo and Armando Gabino. I noted that the decision on Morillo had to be made this early because had they waited another day, Morillo could have become a free agent and been lost to other organizations. What I failed to note was a move that was NOT made on that day. You may have noticed that David Winfree was not added to the 40 man roster. In other words, Winfree was allowed to become a six year minor league free agent. It will be interesting to see if Winfree is signed by another organization or if he chooses to come back to the Twins.  

What do you think? Send me an e-mail, or leave your Comments here.