Small Sample Struggles

15 Apr

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Do April statistics mean anything? Well, the obvious answer to that is that, of course the stats matter, just like a game in April is worth as much as a game in August or September. However, I am fully of the belief that people can make too much or worry too much about a slow start. There have been a lot of very slow starts throughout the Twins minor league system throughout the first week. That by itself is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that so many are struggling. Of course it will even itself out over time and a guy hitting .100 through 20 at bats probably won’t hit .100 over 400-500 plate appearances. Think about this, a guy who is 2-20 (.100) can go 5-8 over the next two games (certainly not otherworldly), and he is hitting .250. A couple more hits and you could be approaching .300. So, to see Aaron Hicks hitting .050 (1-20) right now, maybe you can understand why I’m not too terribly worried. Here are some other guys who likely would prefer to have started off a little faster (And yes, I do realize that batting average is about the worst way to evaluate a hitter):

Rochester Red Wings

  • Luke Hughes – .167 (4-24)
  • Danny Valencia – .167 (4-24)
  • Wilson Ramos – .208 (5-24)

New Britain Rockcats

  • Juan Portes – .050 (1-20)
  • Whit Robbins – .067 (1-15)
  • Estarlin de Los Santos – .118 (2-17)
  • Steve Singleton – .176 (3-17)
  • Joe Benson – .188 (3-16)
  • Ben Revere – .238 (5-23)

Ft. Myers Miracle

  • Evan Bigley – .053 (1-19)
  • Deibinson Romero – .118 (2-17)
  • Ramon Santana – .130 (3-23)
  • Jair Fernandez – .133 (2-15)
  • Chris Herrmann – .188 (3-16)

Beloit Snappers

  • Aaron Hicks – .050 (1-20)
  • James Beresford – .091 (2-22)
  • Danny Rams – .150 (3-20)
  • Angel Morales – .211 (4-19)

SethSpeaks Wednesday Minor League Hitter of the Day – Dustin Martin – Rochester Red Wings

SethSpeaks Wednesday Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Michael Tarsi – Ft. Myers Miracle

Red Wings Report                                                                  

Wednesday – Rochester 5, Lehigh Valley 2 Ryan Mullins was given a start and pitched admirably. The lanky lefty gave up one run on three hits over five innings. He walked one and struck out six. Tim Lahey gave up one run on four hits in one innings. Then Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama each pitched a scoreless inning. Delaney struck out two and Slama struck out three. Jacque Jones went 2-3 with a walk and his second double. Dustin Martin went 2-4 with a home and three RBI. Erik Lis was 2-4 with a double. Brian Dinkelman was an on-base machine, going 1-2 with three walks.  

New Britain Notes

Wednesday – New Britain 1, Portland 3Carlos Gutierrez was much improved in his second start of the season. In five innings, he gave up just one run on five hits. He walked one and struck out five. Spencer Steedley struck out three in two perfect innings. Cole Devries gave up two runs (1 earned) on two hits (including a home run). He walked one and struck out two. Chris Parmelee was 2-4 with his second double. Estarlin de Los Santos went 1-2 with two walks. Yancarlos Ortiz and Rene Tosoni each hit doubles.  

Miracle Matters

Wednesday – Ft. Myers 2, Charlotte 1Michael Tarsi recorded his first win of the year. He threw six shutout innings. He walked four and walked just one. Tony Davis gave up one run on three hits in 1.2 innings. Then Shooter Hunt came in and got the last out of the 8th and three outs in the ninth for his first save. The Miracle managed just five hits. Yangervis Solarte, Drew Thompson and Evan Bigley each had a double.  

Snappers Snippets

Wednesday – Beloit 6, Kane Country 5Steve Liddle continues to hit well. He went 2-3 with a walk, a double and a stolen base. Derek McCallum was 2-5 with his third double. Michael Gonzales hit his first home run of the year. Angel Morales stole two bases. Dan Osterbrock started and went 4.2 innings. He gave up two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out six. Ben Tootle got two outs, but he gave up three runs on two hits and two walks. Dakota Watts struck out five in 2.1 scoreless innings out of the bullpen. Edgar Ibarra got the final out of the 9th frame. After the Snappers grabbed the lead, Steve Blevins came in and pitched a perfect 10th for his second save.  

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to Leave your comments here. 

Do April statistics mean anything? Well, the obvious answer to that is that, of course the stats matter, just like a game in April is worth as much as a game in August or September. However, I am fully of the belief that people can make too much or worry too much about a slow start. There have been a lot of very slow starts throughout the Twins minor league system throughout the first week. That by itself is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that so many are struggling. Of course it will even itself out over time and a guy hitting .100 through 20 at bats probably won’t hit .100 over 400-500 plate appearances. Think about this, a guy who is 2-20 (.100) can go 5-8 over the next two games (certainly not otherworldly), and he is hitting .250. A couple more hits and you could be approaching .300. So, to see Aaron Hicks hitting .050 (1-20) right now, maybe you can understand why I’m not too terribly worried. Here are some other guys who likely would prefer to have started off a little faster (And yes, I do realize that batting average is about the worst way to evaluate a hitter):

Rochester Red Wings

·         Luke Hughes – .167 (4-24)

·         Danny Valencia – .167 (4-24)

·         Wilson Ramos – .208 (5-24)

New Britain Rockcats

·         Juan Portes – .050 (1-20)

·         Whit Robbins – .067 (1-15)

·         Estarlin de Los Santos – .118 (2-17)

·         Steve Singleton – .176 (3-17)

·         Joe Benson – .188 (3-16)

·         Ben Revere – .238 (5-23)

Ft. Myers Miracle

·         Evan Bigley – .053 (1-19)

·         Deibinson Romero – .118 (2-17)

·         Ramon Santana – .130 (3-23)

·         Jair Fernandez – .133 (2-15)

·         Chris Herrmann – .188 (3-16)

Beloit Snappers

·         Aaron Hicks – .050 (1-20)

·         James Beresford – .091 (2-22)

·         Danny Rams – .150 (3-20)

·         Angel Morales – .211 (4-19)

SethSpeaks Wednesday Minor League Hitter of the Day – Dustin Martin – Rochester Red Wings

SethSpeaks Wednesday Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Michael Tarsi – Ft. Myers Miracle

Red Wings Report                                                                  

Wednesday – Rochester 5, Lehigh Valley 2 Ryan Mullins was given a start and pitched admirably. The lanky lefty gave up one run on three hits over five innings. He walked one and struck out six. Tim Lahey gave up one run on four hits in one innings. Then Kyle Waldrop, Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama each pitched a scoreless inning. Delaney struck out two and Slama struck out three. Jacque Jones went 2-3 with a walk and his second double. Dustin Martin went 2-4 with a home and three RBI. Erik Lis was 2-4 with a double. Brian Dinkelman was an on-base machine, going 1-2 with three walks.  

New Britain Notes

Wednesday – New Britain 1, Portland 3Carlos Gutierrez was much improved in his second start of the season. In five innings, he gave up just one run on five hits. He walked one and struck out five. Spencer Steedley struck out three in two perfect innings. Cole Devries gave up two runs (1 earned) on two hits (including a home run). He walked one and struck out two. Chris Parmelee was 2-4 with his second double. Estarlin de Los Santos went 1-2 with two walks. Yancarlos Ortiz and Rene Tosoni each hit doubles.  

Miracle Matters

Wednesday – Ft. Myers 2, Charlotte 1Michael Tarsi recorded his first win of the year. He threw six shutout innings. He walked four and walked just one. Tony Davis gave up one run on three hits in 1.2 innings. Then Shooter Hunt came in and got the last out of the 8th and three outs in the ninth for his first save. The Miracle managed just five hits. Yangervis Solarte, Drew Thompson and Evan Bigley each had a double.  

Snappers Snippets

Wednesday – Beloit 6, Kane Country 5Steve Liddle continues to hit well. He went 2-3 with a walk, a double and a stolen base. Derek McCallum was 2-5 with his third double. Michael Gonzales hit his first home run of the year. Angel Morales stole two bases. Dan Osterbrock started and went 4.2 innings. He gave up two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out six. Ben Tootle got two outs, but he gave up three runs on two hits and two walks. Dakota Watts struck out five in 2.1 scoreless innings out of the bullpen. Edgar Ibarra got the final out of the 9th frame. After the Snappers grabbed the lead, Steve Blevins came in and pitched a perfect 10th for his second save.  

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to Leave your comments here.

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6 Responses to “Small Sample Struggles”

  1. clyde April 15, 2010 at 8:50 am #

    Seth, do you know what the organization thinks of Dinkleman? Looking at his minor league numbers (all star at all three full season levels), it seems he might fit the Twins need for a long-term two-hole hitter (is he a good left fielder?). Is he detined for a utility role?

  2. Dave April 15, 2010 at 10:41 am #

    Thanks for ongoing minor league updates. Great read. Let’s see how long they stay with Crain and Mijares.

  3. Joel Thingvall April 15, 2010 at 12:12 pm #

    April in the minor leagues. Finding a place to live. New park, new pitchers and batters. The grind is worse than coming come to Minnesota for two days, going out on the road, playing a weekend and then finally getting a day to settle in.

    Some players will thrive.

    The #1 answer, though, is that someone ahs to make 24-27 outs in every game–both sides!

  4. mike wants wins April 15, 2010 at 2:15 pm #

    Keith Law is still a believer in Hicks. He listed him today as someone everyone might know next year…

  5. Seth April 15, 2010 at 2:23 pm #

    Anyone who knows anything about prospects hasn’t given up on Hicks. it’s all there. He’ll be fine. that was the point of the blog. There are a lot of good prospects who are off to a slow start but will be just fine.

  6. mike wants wins April 16, 2010 at 10:25 am #

    I never said I didn’t believe, did I? Did I even imply I didn’t? Did I imply anyone didn’t? I’m not sure I understand your response at all. I said Law is still a believer.

    To be more clear, the question he was responding to was about Heyward, and how casual fans had never heard of him much before the middle of last year. Who might be a guy like that this year/next? Hicks was one of the names he gave.

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