Cliff Lee to Twins Rumors Heating Up

6 Jul

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Be sure to read my StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog today for discussion on the Cliff Lee rumors, but here today, I want to focus on the later rumor, that the Twins have allegedly offered Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks to the Mariners for Cliff Lee. More accurately, it would be for two months (and hopefully a strong October run) of Cliff Lee in a Twins uniform. The question has to be asked: as good as Cliff Lee is, how much is too much? As Fanatic Jack pointed out on last night’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins Podcast, Cliff Lee fits the Twins to a T. The Twins need a true Ace. But they also love pitchers who don’t want batters. Cliff Lee walks basically no one. He would really, really help the Twins tremendously the rest of this year. But it is impossible not to at least consider the negative affects of giving up two such highly touted prospects for just two months. But you can’t mention the two months without adding the part about October. It’s a vicious cycle to consider this question. It could be debated all day. How much is too much? Is there such a thing as too much? What does that question mean to you?

For me, I have to start with the minor leaguers in the package, and what I would consider to be the Twins “Untouchable” players. In the past, we could say “untouchable” but it always had the unwritten reality that the player was untouchable except if someone like Albert Pujols would become available. Well, Cliff Lee might fit into that category at this stage, right? I mean, we can all see that his impact on the Twins might be at that high level. So, when we are saying “untouchable”, we actually mean ‘untouchable.’

Here was my most recent Top 20 Twins prospect list, to use as a reference. Remember this list is a month old and could very easily be updated and altered again.

  1. Kyle Gibson – RHP
  2. Aaron Hicks – OF
  3. Miguel Sano – 3B
  4. Wilson Ramos – C
  5. Adrian Salcedo – RHP
  6. Angel Morales – OF
  7. Joe Benson – OF
  8. David Bromberg – RHP
  9. Ben Revere – OF

10.  Danny Valencia – 3B

11.  Deolis Guerra – RHP

12.  Alex Burnett – RHP

13.  Trevor Plouffe – SS

14.  Liam Hendriks – RHP

15.  BJ Hermsen – RHP

16.  Carlos Gutierrez – RHP

17.  Rene Tosoni – OF

18.  Bruce Pugh – RHP

19.  Jeff Manship – RHP –

20.  Chris Parmelee – 1B/OF

After that point, there are players that I would rather the Twins not trade, but it would be hard to call them untouchable, with the probable exception of my #21 prospect, Max Kepler.

Seth’s UntouchablesKyle Gibson (who could only be a player to be named later at this time anyway), Miguel Sano and Joe Benson. That’s it for me.

Aaron Hicks is right on that next level. I could trade him, but I really, really would rather not trade him in any scenario in this deal unless the Twins and Lee are able to come to a long-term extension, which is not going to happen. So, although I understand the Mariners asking for Hicks and Ramos, I believe it is WAY too much for a rental player.

Wilson Ramos is obviously someone I would prefer that the Twins keep. I think he’s much better than he has played in 2010 to this point, but I also understand the reality that Joe Mauer is going to be around for a long time, so Ramos is expendable.

Let me say this, I think that if two high prospects are required, the above comments remain true, but that the top two prospects in the deal should not add up to less than 12. In other words, if Wilson Ramos is made available and is one of the players to go to Seattle, the second player should not be any of the team’s top 8 prospects (4 + 9 = 13). So, Wilson Ramos and Ben Revere, I would probably be comfortable with it, but that is a hefty price to pay. However, consider that Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span will certainly be back in 2011, and I would think that Delmon Young would be tendered another contract. In 2012, it could get interesting, but I don’t think they’ll miss Revere since there are a lot of quality outfield prospects needed for likely just one outfield spot.

So, I am not a fan, at all, of the Ramos/Hicks rumors (Because of Hicks), but I’m not against giving up two very good prospects.

Now, what do you think? What would you trade? Who is untouchable in this scenario?

And don’t forget to listen to Fanatic Jack and I talk Twins on last night’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast. Oh, and be sure to scroll down for information on the upcoming TwinsCentric project and the Viewing Party on Wednesday at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park which should be quite the event. Feel free to leave your questions and comments here. 

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38 Responses to “Cliff Lee to Twins Rumors Heating Up”

  1. joelthing July 6, 2010 at 1:13 am #

    Tough, tough call.

    Yet prospects are just that, prospects. If the Twins don’t find space for them, someone will, down the line, and until they make the majors…maybe they are just anotehr Carlos Gomez, or late (?) blooming Delmon Young…or that guy Seattle traded to Baltimore.

    Who do the Twins put in the outfield in 2012. In 2013. In 2014 (maybe someone they drafted this year or next)?

    Ramos is expendable except that if Mauer does go down, who is the 30-60 day replacement. Of course, you can say Lehman, Herrman, Rams or any number of guys 2-3 years out for now, and stick with Butera or de san miguel. But Mauer doing on the Dl would hurt the Twins if Ramos isn’t in the wings.

  2. Kunza July 6, 2010 at 6:57 am #

    No way would I make that deal. I think the Twins are making a huge mistake if they give up that much. If they were going to give up that much, why not do it a month ago? Stupid. Stupid.

    If I was the GM, I would glady give that up for Dan Haren, but not Lee who will be around for only 2 months. They should be setting their sights on Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, or Roy Oswalt.

    I’m living in a dream world here…..

    1. Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to Houston for Roy Oswalt
    2. Wilson Ramos, Aaron Hicks, and Scott Baker to Arizona for Dan Haren

    That would leave us with a rotation of
    Dan Haren
    Francisco Liriano
    Roy Oswalt
    Carl Pavano
    Brian Duensing/Jeff Manship/Kyle Gibson

    Next year’s rotation
    Dan Haren
    Francisco Liriano
    Roy Oswalt
    Kyle Gibson
    Brian Duensing/Jeff Manship/Free agent #5 type guy

  3. Bill in Sarasota July 6, 2010 at 6:59 am #

    I would swap places for D. Guerra (11 to 8) and Bromberg (8 to 11).
    Ramos, Revere, and a prospect over #20 (Kepler not included).

  4. mike wants wins July 6, 2010 at 8:14 am #

    One of the top prospects seems like it should be enough, given what he’s been traded for the last two times (one of them plus another player, but not two top prospects).

    Lots of players are not as replaceable as they look. It’s not like they have a long term replacement at SS or 2B or CF. It’s not like they have a replacement for Pavano or Liriano.

    I would 100% trade for Lee if I’m the Twins. Mauer and Morneau are healthy, Pavano and Liriano are above average. This is s a team that can win it all, but it would be easier to get there, and to win it all, with Lee. The present is way more certain than the future…..

  5. gobbledy July 6, 2010 at 8:43 am #

    revere yes, hicks no. cuddy, kubal and young will all probably be gone after next year. revere = span we will need some pop, which hicks is supposed to have. oswalt or haren you get for multiple years much smarter trade, imo. the draft picks will be high and if lee signs with the yankees he may not even be their top free agent and we get 2nd picks instead.

  6. Ricky July 6, 2010 at 8:46 am #

    Aaron Hicks has future star written all over him and Keith Law ranked him 9th prospect in the minors. He should be untouchable. I’d give up Revere before Hicks. Hicks could be ready in the next two years and should get promoted by the end of this month to Ft. Myers. He should still have the edge over Sano as top prospect in the system as well.

  7. Mike July 6, 2010 at 8:47 am #

    I do it because Lee is a Type A free agent, and we will receive two high picks back. On the field, Lee is exactly what this team needs.

  8. Steve L. July 6, 2010 at 8:56 am #

    It would have to be only Ramos or Hicks as part of the deal for me to be okay with it, but I’m not on board for parting with Hicks in any deal. Both of them is definitely paying too much, and past deals for postseason-push-rental-aces are evidence of this. I’m fine with a deal built around Ramos (even though I’d prefer to see him play for the Twins in the future somehow), but the other players in the deal would have to be of far lower quality than Hicks. A deal I proposed a few weeks ago (which is probably as good of a deal as I’d be willing to give) was Ramos, Rene Tosoni, and David Bromberg. Tosoni has since been been shut down for the rest of the season due to injury so he likely could no longer be a part of any trade, but that gives you an idea of how much I think Lee would be worth (at its ceiling) for a rental. Ramos and Nick Blackburn I’d go for in a heartbeat, Ramos and Slowey or Baker I wouldn’t be as quick to jump on. If Lee was willing to sign an extension immediately to stay with the Twins, I might be okay with the Hicks AND Ramos rumors (might), but that’s the only way that deal would make any semblance of sense for the Twins.

  9. Jon July 6, 2010 at 9:00 am #

    The only way you include Hicks is if the deal is centered around him (thus removing Ramos). Like it was mentioned, Hicks is a top ten prospect in all of baseball. You don’t give those types of talents up for a rental player.

  10. JimCrikket July 6, 2010 at 9:28 am #

    I guess you guys are watching a different Aaron Hicks than I have been. I’ve seen him play 5 games this year in Cedar Rapids and I’ve been less than impressed, for a supposed top 1-2 prospect. I realize he’s young, but not that much younger than the low-A pitchers I’ve seen him be overmatched by. Would I prefer to give up Revere? Certainly… he’s more likely to be blocked by current outfielders and, since reports are that the Ms want “Major League Ready” talent, you’d think he’d be closer to what they want. But I’m just not nearly as married to Hicks as the rest of you seem to be. I’d do Ramos and Hicks for Lee and getting some sort of middling prospect back with Lee wouldn’t seem to be out of line. Plus, the Twins get those Type A compensation picks that you all can drool over for the next few years, too! :)

  11. Jim H July 6, 2010 at 9:47 am #

    By the time a Lee deal gets done, if it gets done, you are looking at 10 to 15 starts the rest of this year. Realistically, if he pitches fantastic, it probably translates to a couple of more wins over whoever he replaces. He could make a big difference on whether the Twins make the postseason and how the Twins do there, but more likely even if he is great, it won’t.

    The unfortunate thing is if you keep trading prospects for short term fixes, it will bite you eventually. Look at the Indians in the 90’s. They kept trading their best prospects for short term help and eventually ran out of prospects, got old and had to break up their team. And on top of that, they seldom got out of the first round of the playoffs. Everyone says you have to have great starters to win in the postseason, but look at the Braves. They had great starters, made the postseasson like 15 years straight and only made the world series like twice.

    I hope the Twins don’t fall into that trap. Trading prospects for short term help isn’t really likely to be the answer, most of the time.

  12. fenring July 6, 2010 at 9:52 am #

    I’m not sure Gardy could win even if we traded teams with the Yankees. This team is rotten with complacency. Everything seems to be good enough for Gardenhire as long as they stay in the race for the Central(AAA1/2 league) division title.

  13. Steve L. July 6, 2010 at 9:52 am #

    Jim,

    Did you ever see Torii Hunter play at that level? I’m just wondering cause I have a feeling Hicks’ development is and will play out a lot like his did (Hunter was never a good “stat” guy in the minors until he was 23 and in AA). They seem to be comparable type prospects who needed to work on their hitting but excelled defensively and had high hitting upside to develop into. Plus Hicks has displayed an excellent walk rate, which Torii never did (Hicks already has more walks this year than Torii ever has ever totalled in any full minor or major league season). How does Hicks look in the field? Are his team-leading XBH totals just a mirage? I’m not willing to give up on Hicks after just 2 and 1/2 seasons when there are so many good signs to go with any “bad” ones.

  14. Dave July 6, 2010 at 9:57 am #

    Take a deep breath and then several more deep breaths. For whatever reason (hint: Gardy, for starters), this team is mammothly under-performing.We have obvious holes and Upper Management is determined not to try to fill them internally–Valencia and Slama and Neshak, for example. Lee may, repeat MAY, be a short-term fix for the pitching staff, but that doesn’t address the other obvious short-comings. Hocking the future for 10-12 starts is insane.

  15. gobbledy July 6, 2010 at 10:28 am #

    lee is a type a free agent but that doesn’t mean that we would get 1st picks for sure. when cc signed the brewers got 2nd picks because tex was rated higher. if he were to sign with the yanks, as assumed, and they sign a higher rated player say crawford (example not sure how he ranks), we would get 2nd rd pick. the draft picks would be high maybe in the 30’s and it could be a 30+ and 60+ instead of 2-30’s, not a great return. haren or oswalt please!

  16. JimCrikket July 6, 2010 at 11:01 am #

    Steve, I have no idea if I saw Kirby play class A ball… may have, but certainly wasn’t paying the kind of attention to that sort of thing that I do now.

    I don’t think I said anything about giving up on Hicks. That’s a gross exaggeration of my comments. He’s an athlete, for sure.

    Hicks may lead the Snappers in XBH, but it’s not like he’s lapping the field. His 29 XBH makes him one of five guys with 20+. That includes Angel Morales who had 24 when he was promoted a few weeks ago, so I’d be willing to bet Morales WOULD be leading had he remained a Snapper.

    In your rush to defend him statistically, I note you didn’t bother to mention he’s in a neck-and-neck race with Danny Rams to see who can lead the Snappers in Ks (and Rams has only 3 fewer XBHs, by the way).

    Look, I’m not saying Hicks is garbage. Far from it. But I’ve seen a boatload of Class A ballplayers come through here in the past 30+ years and from my admittedly limited opportunities to see Hicks play, he just doesn’t strike me as the sort of “near sure-thing” that an organization’s top prospect (and an “untouchable”) should be.

    And Dave, I think suggesting that trading a couple of prospects to immediately improve the Twins chances of not only making the playoffs but advancing in them to be “hocking the future for 10-12 starts” is what’s insane.

    After all, the idea is for the Twins to compete for the World Series, is it not? If you ask me which player is more likely to play a major role in the Twins reaching a World Series, Cliff Lee this year or Aaron Hicks at some point in the future, I’d say Lee in a heartbeat.

  17. Brad July 6, 2010 at 11:58 am #

    As Twins fans we have often had to over value the prospects in our system because the front office has never paid the money needed to keep our top talent and never went out to get any talent. The new stadium has changed my opinions of prospects a bit. Unless the kid is a Mauer, Morneau, C.C., Braun, etc type prospect use them as chips to win now. The name of the game is to win the WS, not get to the playoffs and bow out in the first round.

    Reading rumors on another site wit the package listed above, they have either League or Aardsma in the deal too. Maybe we can force them to take Crain in the deal.

  18. Steve L. July 6, 2010 at 12:00 pm #

    Sorry Jim, I wasn’t trying to say your evaluations of him were wrong or to put words in your mouth, besides the questions, everything else was my opinions. I just wanted more of your thoughts since you’ve seen him play (I haven’t been able to make a Beloit trip the last few years). I’ll take the high K-rate with his (uber) high-walk rate at this point. Ya we’d all like to see a better ratio, but that’s something I think will improve as he develops. Plus, since were talking K’s and comparing players, Angel Morales struck out in 30.8% of his at-bats for Beloit, and Hicks has K’d in 28.4%. Divide walks by at-bats, and Hicks walk rate % is 18.2, while Morales’ was just 11.4. All their other numbers were very similar, Morales just got hot and stayed hot for a longer stretch…just sayin.

  19. JimCrikket July 6, 2010 at 12:08 pm #

    Steve, I agree and I was actually a little surprised that Morales got the promotion over Hicks. I only saw Morales play 3 games (he got promoted after the first game of a 3-game series in CR last month) but my, again limited, perspective on him was that he was very similar to Hicks with a bit more power but didn’t seem to cover ground defensively as well as Hicks. Neither of them seemed to do well against the starting pitchers CR put up against them, but maybe that’s just a reflection of the Angles having good pitchers at this level this season. Who knows?

    Again, I’m not ‘down on’ Hicks… I just wouldn’t be as disappointed to see him dealt to Seattle for Lee as most others would, I guess. I hope he stays in the organization and in a couple of years, I have to eat my words. I’d be happy to.

  20. Jon Colosimo July 6, 2010 at 12:26 pm #

    If Hicks/Ramos is the cost of getting to the World Series, so be it.

    I remember when guys like Mike Restovich and Adam Johnson were untouchable when we needed an extra piece in 2002. Is anyone thankful that we didn’t trade those guys? I’m not saying we should empty the farm system, but this trade definitely isn’t going to ruin it.

    Lee should be that extra piece that gets the Twins to the series, so you have to make the deal.

  21. MrHockey July 6, 2010 at 12:28 pm #

    We need relief pitching more than a starter–someone who can get outs without “pitching to contact.”

  22. MrHockey July 6, 2010 at 12:34 pm #

    Is this a better trade than the one for John Smiley who became a free agent the next year?

    03-17-1992: Traded by Pittsburgh Pirates to Minnesota Twins for Denny Neagle and Midre Cummings.

  23. mike wants wins July 6, 2010 at 1:31 pm #

    Play to win. M&M are in their prime. You don’t know if they will be healthy at all in a year or two. Even if Hicks works out, there may be no 2B, SS, 3B, LF to play with him (or 1B by then maybe). Make a play to win it all while these guys are healthy. Even if it doesn’t work, it was the right thing to do.

  24. jimbo92107 July 6, 2010 at 1:47 pm #

    My god, so many people seem willing to sell the farm for just one year into a possible playoff run!

    Please, I beg, I beseech, do NOT trade Ramos or Hicks. Just don’t do it. That’s like giving away a future Terry Steinbach and a switch-hitting Torii Hunter! Granted that lots of things can go wrong with prospects, but Ramos looks to me like one hell of a catcher, and Hicks is a 5-tool outfielder with a plus-plus arm and excellent plate discipline.

    The top twenty list has lots of other players on it that I could stand to see leave for Haren or Oswalt (and we still might regret it), but the sky-high price for Cliff Lee is just stupid. Selling off some farm hands is one thing, but you don’t sell the foundation for the future Twins for two months of a rental ace.

    Even if you get a couple first-rounders after Lee leaves, what are the chances you’ll get another Aaron Hicks or another Wilson Ramos? Not very high.

    Bad deal for Lee. Better to go after Haren or Oswalt with prospects like Angel Morales and Dave Bromberg, plus Blackie and/or Slowey. At this point, the team can fill in for Blackburn and Slowey with Duensing, Swarzak or Manship.

    Meanwhile (since we’re dreaming here), bring up Ramos, Waldrop and Slama, send down Butera and Jose Mijares, cut Ron Mahay, move Rauch back to short relief and make Slama the closer.

  25. mike wants wins July 6, 2010 at 2:24 pm #

    Ramos won’t be catching more than 40 games while Mauer is here. That’s just not very valuable. Send down Mijares? Ramos is not the foundation to any future for the Twins. He’s a valuable trade chip, nothing more.

    As for Hicks, he is 3+ years away. Who knows what the roster will look like by then. There may not be a team worth having, there may be great OFers on teh roster already, he may not work out to be good at all……yes, it’s probably “too much” to give up for one guy, for a few months. But, do you really think they can win it all with this roster, even with your minor transactions? M&M only have so many healthy years, it would be stupid not to try to win while they are both healthy.

  26. JimCrikket July 6, 2010 at 2:37 pm #

    jimbo, I’d counter that by saying “my god, so many people seem to think the primary goal of a MLB organization is to hang on to as many “top 100″ minor league prospects as possible.”

    Don’t give up the farm for a better shot at a World Series? The World Series IS the goal.

    First of all, with the current Twins C and OF positions not looking likely to change in the next couple of years and the depth of OF prospects in the organization, those are exactly the positions I would be looking to deal for Lee.

    Second, giving up TWO prospects is hardly “giving up the farm”.

    Could they get a guy who’d be around longer, like Haren or Oswalt, for a similar deal? Maybe. Could they get more than just Lee from the Ms for that package (say, Aardsma?). Maybe. My point is simply that this team is built to win right now and a legit #1 starter is the most glaring missing piece to the puzzle.

    “sometimes you just gotta say, ‘What the f***'”

  27. Bill in Sarasota July 6, 2010 at 4:37 pm #

    The price is always debatable. Even if Ramos and Revere are expendable, they could always be used for trades in the off season if the Lee price is too high.

    The Mariners trade for Lee was for Aumont (~C.Gutierez), Gillies (~Revere), and Ramierz (~Bromberg). If Seattle is negative on Ramos, I would pitch Gutierez, Revere, and Bromberg.

    Remember the deadline rumors a few years ago of Liriano for Soriano. We were all glad the next year the trade didn’t happen.

    For even a mid-sized market team, you have to balance the future and the present. In the next three years, the Twins will need to replace 4-5 position players to go along with M&M and Span. To get 4 good MLB players, you probably need 8 top prospects.

    I would like to keep Benson, Hicks, Morales, and Arcia and figure two of them will become good MLB players.

  28. darin July 6, 2010 at 8:44 pm #

    Cliff Lee would be great, but what’s wrong with chasing Dan Haren? Haren is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013. He is pitching alot better than his numbers show. If he was on a team that scored more and had a better defense he would be a possible #1. I know Lee is a much better pitcher than Haren but the draft pick compensation for Lee could possibly a sandwich pick and a 2nd round pick. Just ask Toronto how they felt when the Yankees signed all those top players and they got practically no compensation for AJ Burnett.

  29. jay lethal July 6, 2010 at 11:56 pm #

    I see this twins need a “true Ace” none sense a lot. Liriano has been better than lee this year, oswalt and harren too.

    Im surprised at the number of people that are ok with a ramos/hicks deal. That rumor immediately struck me as way too much. These rental player deals rarely work out will for the renters. Trading the future value of 2 players who more likely that most in the twins system to contribute at the mlb level for the very short term and relatively small value cliff lee would bring is a moderately high risk and a very low percentage move. Lee wouldnt make the twins the favorite. He would probably increase their world series odds from like 8 % right now to 11%. And as soon as the twins dont win the WS they immediately become the losers of the trade. The world series is the goal, but the twins should be looking to make moves that maximize their assets towards that goal. Hicks and ramos for lee would be an irresponsible use of resources. Just look how far complete disregard for minor league talent has gotten brian sabean and the giants.

  30. Mike July 7, 2010 at 9:35 am #

    Jay, that is just not true. Lee dominates Liriano and it not even close. BAA, WHIP, K/BB rate. Lee, Liriano and the hottest of Baker, Pavano, Slowery, Blackie as the 3rd starter gives us a legit shot in the post season. We are hardly selling the farm.

  31. Large Canine July 7, 2010 at 9:37 am #

    Jay Lethal, just look how far a complete REGARD for minor league talent has gotten the Twins. Do the deal! There is no trophy for the best minor league system.

  32. DH in Philly July 7, 2010 at 11:21 am #

    “That’s like giving away a future Terry Steinbach and a switch-hitting Torii Hunter! ”

    While that COULD be true, it also COULD be like giving up a Derek Parks and an Alex Romero.

  33. Ted k July 7, 2010 at 11:44 am #

    Liriano has a lower FIP and a much lower xFIP and sierra. He strikes out a lot more than lee, and gets a lot more ground balls. Lee does walk fewer but walks are not a weakness for liriano. BAA, WHIP, BABIP and any other batted ball result statistic youd like to use is heavily influenced by the mariners superior defense not cliff lees pitching skill. If you paired cliff lees fly ball tendencies with the twins awful outfield defense youd see a spike in lees era, whip, baa, babip, oslg ect. Liriano doesnt seem dominating because his babip is an unsustainable .352. Lee has played with the much better defense and liriano has been somewhat unlucky, but overall i believe liriano has been the better pitcher. He’s very undervalued by twins fan.

    This trade doesnt destroy the system but it would hurt it a lot. The twins certainly dont have the top minor league system right now. They have a solid system but they dont have the top end talent the best systems have. Trading away two of their highest end talents would reduce the organizations odds of generating a major league contributer. Because most prospects fail it makes good prospects more valuable. They have a higher likely hood of becoming major league players.

  34. B Dubz July 7, 2010 at 12:56 pm #

    Ramos and Hicks to Seattle for sure…if the Cliff Lee package includes David Aardsma.

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Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Should There Be Such a Thing As Too Much? « Hitting The Eephus - July 7, 2010

    [...] Lee. He was, after all, ranked by Baseball America as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball. As Seth Stohs says, Hicks isn’t untouchable, but he shouldn’t be traded for a rental player. That is [...]

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