Moving Day

30 Jul

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Before we get started, I want to let people in the Twin Cities know that I will be on Fox 9’s Primetime show tonight at about 10:15 for a few minutes to discuss the Twins and the trade deadline. If you have a chance to watch it, please let me know what you think. If anyone can send it to me, or youtube it, cool!

Wilson Ramos is packing and moving today. So is Joe Testa. Matt Capps is moving, and I am moving. The two Twins minor leaguers were traded late on Thursday night for the Nationals All Star closer. Me? After three years of living in the Twin Cities, I am packing up and moving back up to Warroad today and throughout this weekend. (in other words, I don’t know if I will be able to post any updates here, but I will be on Twitter a lot, so as I hear anything, I’ll post some quick thoughts there. So, follow me at www.Twitter.com/SethTweets.  

But to the important stuff, the Twins acquired a bullpen arm, but at what cost? I have to be honest, my thoughts on the deal have kind of gone back and forth in the last couple of hours since the deal was made official. When I first read the reports that Wilson Ramos had been pulled from the Rochester Red Wings lineup and there was speculation that the Twins were close on Capps, I didn’t think that the Twins would give up that much.

When I heard that the deal was official, and complete, I was in awe, shocked that the Twins would give up their most expendable trade prospect for a reliever that, frankly, isn’t any better than current closer Jon Rauch.

I know I’m not a good blogger in that I tend to look at everything from various angles, players, front office, fans and more. So, as I was driving home, my mind was all over the place on why this trade might make sense from the Twins perspective. Over the last few hours, I have had several conversations with people who have asked, “why does this move make sense for the Twins?” I have had to come up with answers, but in the end, my general opinion of the trade does not change.

So, why is this trade good for the Twins?

To get an established All-Star reliever for a minor leaguer makes the 2010 Twins bullpen and roster stronger. Specifically, he will be replacing Jon Rauch as the team’s closer and has been a little bit better than Rauch in 2010. So, the 2010 roster is better. Many Twins fans, and even players such as Torii Hunter and Johan Santana frequently complained and wondered aloud when this “future” would come, when would the future be now/ From that perspective, the Twins did make themselves a better team in 2010 by this move. This is that kind of move where they are giving up part of the future to help win now.

Secondly, he is just 26 years old. Most of these prospect-for-veteran deals involve someone in his 30s, or even on his last wind. Capps is Young and theoretically has room for improvement.

Following the 2010 season, Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain will become free agents. Capps still has one more year of arbitration remaining, so he will be around in 2011 as well. This provides some additional insurance for the Twins bullpen next year, specifically if Joe Nathan is unable to pitch right away.

Finally, there are a lot of similarities between Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Rauch is a solid bullpen arm, so adding another solid bullpen arm is a good thing. Capps is slightly better than Rauch, but that’s not a ringing endorsement. 

So, why is this trade questionable for the Twins?

For this, I will start with the same answer I gave for my final reason this is a good trade; there are a lot of similarities between Capps and Rauch. 

  IP Hits BB K3 HR Sv/Opp WHIP ERA BAA
Capps 46.0 51 9 38 5 26/30 1.30 2.84 .279
Rauch 38.1 43 9 27 3 21/25 1.36 3.05 .283

Most of these numbers and rates are very similar with a slight edge going to Capps. So Capps is an improvement over Rauch, but how much?

Yes, he will be under Twins control for 2011, but after making $3.5 million in 2010, he could make upwards of $6-7 million in 2011. That is one thing if Capps is the Twins closer, but if Joe Nathan does come back, do we really want a Rauch-esque 8th inning guy making that kind of money? This likely means that the Twins will not keep at least two (and possibly three) of the current bullpen of Guerrier/Rauch/Crain.

As decent as Capps has been in 2010, he was non-tendered by the Pittsburgh Pirates after a 2009 season in which he had an ERA of 5.80 and a WHIP of 1.66. With 45 innings pitched this year, he is less than ten innings from exceeding his number of innings pitched each of the last two years. That is probably not a concern, but it is worth noting.

Capps is quite hittable, but he has struck out more than Rauch does. It allows Rauch to move back to the 8th inning and Crain and Guerrier and Mijares and the rest of the bullpen to fill in starting earlier in the game. But Capps will keep ninth innings as nerve-racking as Rauch did. Rauch will make us equally nervous in the 8th inning. Guerrier has been having us nervous for awhile. So, the bullpen has more decent options, but I don’t know that I will have a lot more confidence in it.

But trading Ramos?

Listen, I fully understand that Ramos was expendable. With Joe Mauer signed for most of the next decade, Ramos was not necessary, even if I have illustrated a way that they could co-exist on the same time. Despite his struggles in Rochester (hitting about .240), he remains a Top 5 prospect. He is a good defensive catcher with a strong arm. We believe that he can hit for average and that he has tremendous power potential. In spring training, Gardy and nearly all of the Twins players wanted Ramos to be on the team’s Opening Day roster. Ramos was hitting some of the longest, most impressive home runs. And yet, Ramos has never posted an OPS of .800 in the minor leagues. Of course, I believe that is due to development of that power and that the still-just-22 year old will develop a lot of power. He doesn’t walk and have particularly good plate discipline, something that could make reaching that potential less likely.

But he is a very good prospect, to be sure. We know that the Twins and Mariners did have a deal in the works for Cliff Lee that centered around Ramos. Some teams seem to think highly of Ramos. So, it makes it hard to believe that a future good defense/good offense catcher is only worth one of the worst closers in baseball. We are not talking about Joakim Soria here. Again, this is not a knock on Capps as much as just being incredibly surprised or disappointed that the Twins used their top trade chip and didn’t get more.

As I’ve alluded to a couple of times, the difference between Matt Capps and Jon Rauch is not very large. Last August, the Twins acquired Rauch for Kevin Mulvey, a pitcher who began the season last year as a bottom-of-the-Top-10 Twins prospect. By the time that he was dealt in August, he was probably not even a Top 20 prospect of the team. Two months ago, a Twins fan could have made an argument that Ramos was the Twins #1 prospect (I wouldn’t have, but it could have been made). Even with his struggles, he was still easily a Twins Top 5 prospect. It is just my opinion that the Twins could have received much more for such a prospect.   

The Nationals also receive left-handed reliever Joe Testa in the deal. It has been a tough year for Testa. After dominating at Beloit and Ft. Myers in 2009, he began 2010 in AA New Britain. He struggled with control and eventually was sent back to Ft. Myers. This is a great opportunity for him, and he is excited about the opportunity.

SUMMARY

Matt Capps makes the 2010 Minnesota Twins a little bit better. How much better? I don’t think he is a difference-maker, by any means. I think Wilson Ramos is a very good prospect and that he was expendable for the Twins. I just think they could have received something more for him. But maybe they really couldn’t and this was the best they could actually get for him. If that is true, I personally think they should have kept him. The Nationals signed Capps to a one year deal after he was non-tendered by the Pirates in the offseason and were able to turn him into a great young catching prospect who could be a key contributor to their club for the next decade.

If you have any thoughts on the trade and its affect on the Twins, feel free to leave them here. If there are other deals around baseball over the weekend, please feel free to discuss them here as well. I will likely not have internet access until Monday up north.

Here is a quick glance at what happened on Thursday in the Twins minor league system:

Red Wings Report   

Jacque Jones had two hits including his 20th double and drove in four runs, but it wasn’t enough in the Red Wings 13-6 loss to Gwinnett. David Bromberg started and gave up three runs on seven hits and a walk in five innings. Brad Hennessey then gave up three runs and got just one out. Tim Lahey got the final two outs of the 6th inning but not before he gave up two more runs. Jose Lugo got one out, but he gave up five more runs. Pat Neshek got the last two outs of the seventh inning. Then Rob Delaney pitched a scoreless inning during which he struck out two (which means that he has struck out eight of the last nine batters that he has faced).

New Britain Notes

A three run lead going into the ninth inning was not enough and New Britain lost 8-7 to Bowie. Bobby Lanigan started and gave up four runs on eight hits in five innings. Cole DeVries then got four outs without allowing a run. Carlos Gutierrez went the next 1.2 innings without giving up a run. But he started the ninth inning and gave up four runs in the ninth. He left the game with the based loaded, and Chris Province came in and gave up two hits and a walk to blow the save and give Gutierrez the loss. Chris Parmelee remains white hot. He was 3-4 with his 17th double. Joe Benson had two hits including his 16th AA home run (and his 20th overall). Steve Singleton was 2-4 with his third triple and three RBI. Ben Revere was 2-5. Erik Lis was 2-4 with his seventh AA homer and three RBI.

Miracle Matters

 Bruce Pugh is back! The righty recorded his fifth win of the year (in the Miracle’s 3-2 win) with nine innings of two-run ball. He gave up just two hits, walked none and struck out eight. He left after nine innings in a 2-2 game. But Chris Hermann drove in a run on a single in the 10th, and Dakota Watts pitched a scoreless bottom of the 10th for the save. Brian Dozier and Nick Romero each went 3-5. Romero added his 13th double. Angel Morales hit his second triple.

Snappers Snippets

Beloit had a nice, easy 13-1 win over Burlington. Danny Rams was 3-5 with his 19th double and his 11th home run. Derek McCallum was 2-5 with his 11th double. Lance Ray was 2-4. Edgar Ibarra picks up the win. He gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings. The lefty walked one and struck out six. Nelvin Fuentes struck out five in two scoreless innings.

E-Twins Talkers

Elizabethton beat Johnson City 12-2. Oswaldo Arcia went 2-5 with his 11th home run, one of three home runs for the E-Twins. Daniel Santana hit his 6th double and second home run in five at bats. Brian Burke was 3-5 with his seventh double, first triple and fourth home run. Nate Roberts was 4-5 with his third double and first triple. Jamaal Hawkins and Andy Leer were each 2-4. Martire Garcia improved to 5-0 with 5.1 strong innings. He gave up a run on five hits and two walks. He struck out ten. Michael Tonkin came in and gave up a run on two hits in 2.2 innings. He did not allow a walk and struck out six. Logan Darnell pitched a scoreless ninth.

GCL Twins Topics

The GCL Twins won 7-2 over the Rays. Justin Parker gave up one run on six hits and a walk in five innings. Steve Hirschfeld struck out two in a perfect inning in his second rehab game. Matt Schuld gave up a run on three hits in two innings. Nick Alloway struck out two in a one-hit inning. Matt Parker was 2-3 with a walk and a double. JaDamion Williams went 2-4 with his second double. Rory Rhodes went 2-5.

Any thoughts on the trade, the Twins or the minor league system? Feel free to leave your questions and comments here. 

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28 Responses to “Moving Day”

  1. Bill in Sarasota July 30, 2010 at 6:37 am #

    Smith panicked because obviously Gardy was complaining he had no closer.
    The Twins would have gotten a “difference maker” or a similar young inexpensive prospect like Ramos if they waited for the off-season.
    It’s disappointing.

  2. Pierre Fink, ret July 30, 2010 at 7:34 am #

    Quite a head scratcher to say the least. Another guy who gives up tons of hits and pitches to contact. Seems like a real pretty price for that.

  3. emoeby July 30, 2010 at 7:40 am #

    1. Are you 100% positive that the Twins had an official offer in for Cliff Lee? I don’t trust most of the baseball rumors during this time of the year. Could have just been an attempt to overvalue Ramos (which obviously didn’t work)

    2. Does this mean that the Twins have more faith in Joe Mauer being our catcher well into his contract? That’s a good thing, right?

  4. TT July 30, 2010 at 8:33 am #

    To state the obvious, this trade is trading away the future for the present. Its likely ten years from now, nobody will think this was a good trade. It may even be one of those cautionary Bagwell for Anderson deals. But, far from panic, I think it results from a burst of optimism.

    With the emergence of Delmon Young, the heart of the Twins lineup starts to rival the ’29 Yankees. Mauer, Morneau and Young could easily all end up in the Hall of Fame. If Danny Valencia is even remotely for real, you have no offensive holes in the rest of the lineup. You even have some power in the number nine spot with JJ Hardy.

    The only thing that is going to hold this team back is its pitching. But again, the starting pitching recently has shown signs it is coming around. So strengthening the bullpen becomes a priority. As you point out, that is not only true for this season but next. And expecting Nathan to come back and perform as he has in the past is not reasonable. In addition to the typical injury issues, he is getting old.

    So Capps fills an important void over the next two years. And I doubt the Twins scouts have him evalutated as the equivalent of Rauch. Comparing the recent stats of a guy who is 26 to one in his 30’s wouldn’t change that.

    This is the kind of “seize the moment” deal some people have been urging on the Twins for that past 8 years. This trade reflects the real cost of even small differences as you move to the top of the talent ladder. Fans way over-value prospects in these deals and the difference between Mulvey and Ramos value in a major league deal is not as great as you think. But the cost of stepping up from a steady middle-reliever/setup guy to an established closer is pretty steep. Even if the closer is not one of the top players in the game and a bit of a risk.

    My take is this is a trade that has a lot of ways to turn out bad. Ramos could be a star, Capps could be a disaster. But if it helps the Twins win the World Series this year or next, or even get there, it will have been a success. Lets hope that Smith is not a victim of the over-exuberance.

  5. Matt July 30, 2010 at 8:40 am #

    Would Scott Downs have been better? The Blue Jays wanted a top prospect for him and I think Ramos would qualify. I don’t think Downs has much closing experience, but if Capps and Rausch are pretty much equal, I would have rather had a shut down lefty reliever instead.

  6. mike wants wins July 30, 2010 at 8:49 am #

    No it’s not TT. No one has been saying “trade a top 50-100 prospect for a marginal reliever who racks up saves for bad teams”. I’m with Seth, Aaron, and I’d bet most national writers. This is a terrible over pay. Brutal trade.

  7. Mike July 30, 2010 at 9:02 am #

    Maybe the brain trust saw things to indicate that Ramos’ value will never be higher. There are signs that he is not all that dominant, and once outside the top 10 prospects ibeauty is truly in the eye… so the fact that some have him in the 40-60 range is not all that predictive. Still an overpay based on the Internet hype machine.

  8. Jesse July 30, 2010 at 9:18 am #

    I think I read somewhere that nobody (including Greinke) was off limits for the Royals. Don’t the Royals need a good young catcher? Couldn’t we have traded Ramos (along with another piece) to the Royals for Soria? Capps is just not that much more valuable than a replacement player, plus he is getting pretty cost prohibitive. We are already overpaying for Harris and Blackburn and now we will be overpaying for Capps next year because he happens to pitch in the 9th.

  9. Doofus July 30, 2010 at 9:36 am #

    I would rather have seen the rumored Wilson and That top OF propsect whose named escapes me at the moment. (Our #1 Prospect) for Lee. Much better use of our resources. I just don’t get this move at all. I hope someone gets fired for it.

  10. Cody July 30, 2010 at 10:26 am #

    I really think we could of gotten more for Ramos. I would of tried to build an offer around him for maybe Grienke. I think Bill Smith may have panicked a bit and really did overpay for Matt Capps. If we couldn’t use Ramos for a trade that was worth it now, we should of just held on to him and trade him in the offseason for an ace type pitcher.

  11. TR July 30, 2010 at 10:58 am #

    A couple of points…
    1. We were NOT getting Cliff Lee for Ramos.
    2. Does anyone think the Royals would move Grienke or Soria to a division rival for two prospects?
    3. Waiting to trade Ramos in off-season does nothing to help this year.

  12. Jesse July 30, 2010 at 11:20 am #

    A couple of points…
    1. We all know we weren’t getting Lee for Ramos but a trade for Lee centered around Ramos would have worked.
    2. Yes, Dayton Moore would trade Greinke or Soria to a division rival if he felt he was making his team better.
    3. True, but trading away your Joe Mauer insurance for a overrated pitcher who is basically a Rausch clone (results wise) is irresponsible.

  13. Marv Gustafson July 30, 2010 at 11:24 am #

    Seth,
    Welcome back to the north country. Was this your choice, or your employer’s?

  14. Jeff in WI July 30, 2010 at 11:51 am #

    Don’t know about it being a terrible trade. Never been big on Ramos. Could he explode on the scene and be the next Pudge. Sure. But I am not down on the trade because of Ramos. Still not sure he is all that is thought of him.

    Capps, right now it is a yawn of a move. Does shorten the game with him either in the 9th or 8th, everyone else can move back a inning for when Slowey and Baker are pitching.

    Lee or Oswalt would have been good gets, but it didn’t happen. I can say I am not overly exicited about the rest of the bargains out there in the sales bins. Most of it looks like a trip to a second hand store.

    Twins have some catcher coming up who might be ready when it is time for Mauer to find a spot out from behind the plate in a few years. I think Danny Rams is worth following.

  15. TR July 30, 2010 at 12:04 pm #

    Jesse: So you were in the room and know that a Cliff Lee trade centered aroung Ramos would have worked? You know that? Again, you are ASSUMING that Seattle even valued Ramos. Just because you like Ramos doesn’t mean Seattle liked him – and they are the only ones that matter….

  16. Jesse July 30, 2010 at 12:15 pm #

    TR, were you in the room and know that a Cliff Lee trade centered around Ramos wouldn’t work? Just because we didn’t end up with Lee doesn’t mean Seattle didn’t value Ramos. I never said I liked Ramos but he was our #2 prospect (according to Baseball America) and I like to think other organizations like those types of players.

  17. TR July 30, 2010 at 12:24 pm #

    The word was the the Seattle GM wanted a Major League ready bat and really liked Smoake. It’s also been widely reported that the Twins did offer a Ramos-centered package and Seattle moved on to other options. If anything, this proves we waited too long to trade Ramos. Better to trade these guys before their flaws become apparent to the rest of the league.

  18. Andrew July 30, 2010 at 12:36 pm #

    “To get an established All-Star reliever…”

    Oh, Seth, don’t make the same mistake Fanatic Jack is making. Capps is a one-time All-Star. He was elected to the NL team because of the “one representative per team” rule. If there were another above-average player in Washington, Capps wouldn’t have that “All-Star” label.

    No, he is not an “established All-Star reliever.”

  19. TT July 30, 2010 at 1:49 pm #

    “No one has been saying “trade a top 50-100 prospect for a marginal reliever who racks up saves for bad teams”.”

    Of course not. They have been saying lets trade a top prospect for a past or future Cy Young award winner. But this is the reality. I am high on Ramos. I would call him the Twins top prospect. And if Capps is and remains a mediocre reliever, then you are right it is a terrible trade. But I doubt that is the Twins evaluation of Capps if they plan to hand him the closer role. And experienced closers don’t come cheap.

    Remember AJ Pierzynksi? He was traded for a middle reliever who turned out to be Joe Nathan. And we are talking about a young allstar catcher, not a minor league prospect. The Twins got a couple throw ins in that deal – Bonser and Liriano. But there were plenty of critics, not just Twins fans, who thought the Giants had fleeced the Twins with a bunch of sore arm pitchers.

    As a side not, it turned out they were right after a fashion. All three of those guys have had arm problems and two of them have had tommy john surgery. But I think its safe to say the deal worked out pretty well for us and was a disaster for the Giants. Lets hope the Twins evaluation of Capps turns out as well.

  20. roger July 30, 2010 at 3:54 pm #

    Gonna be a long drive now to have lunch, eh? I will second marv’s question?

    I have often said that I believe Wilson Ramos will be an all-star. I will also agree with those who where a bit disappointed that his bat didn’t come around quicker in Rochester…although it has been very good the past several weeks. As a year ago with Pavano, if Capps comes in and helps the Twins to the playoffs or World Series, there will be less to complain about this trade. But this one could come back to bite Mr. Smith real hard. Like all trades, we will see in a year or two or five!

  21. Bill in Sarasota July 30, 2010 at 4:18 pm #

    Nathan last season with Giants:
    79 ip, 51 h, 33 bb, 83 k, 2.96 era, 1.06 whip.

    Pierzynski trade:
    1. Nathan had upside and four to five years of service remaining.
    2. Bonser 3.13 era and 1.09 whip in limited AAA season
    3. Lirano in his last healthy season with Giants as a 18 year old in A ball = 80 ip, 61 h, 31 bb, 85 k, 1.15 whip, 3.49 era

    All had upside and trade was done in the off season when all clubs are trying to improve.

    Nathan was not available for $3mil the previous off season like Capps.

    This is a terrible trade – it has Gardy panic fingerprints all over it.

    Ramos has gotten off to slow starts the last three seasons as the Twins pushed his development. However each season he made adjustments and excelled the last two months.

    If the Twins make the World Series this year and Capps does well then it’s a success. Anything else it’s a failure. I’m not sure they’ll offer arb to him if Nathan is healthy in December.

    You need to know when to sell high and buy low. And if you can’t at the moment, don’t panic.

  22. Peterb18 July 30, 2010 at 5:44 pm #

    I was negative on this trade at first. But, after researching Capps, I found that he has a mid-90’s fastball with control. The Twins with their coaching and teaching in this area can probably bring out another level from him.
    I do think TT could be right on this. Another thing, the Twins do their research on prospects, and Ramos would have never been traded if he was rated that high internally. There are internal evaluations and those of the media.

  23. TT July 30, 2010 at 9:29 pm #

    Bill –

    Pierzynski was a 26 year old former allstar catcher with a +.300 career batting average in three full seasons.

    Nathan was 28 and had one good season. He was by no means a sure thing. Bonser was clearly a disappointment to the Giants, which was why he was available. Liriano was coming off an arm injury. But clearly the Twins knew what they were doing.

    I have no reason to think they don’t know what they are doing here. Capps certainly has the tools to close, just as Nathan did. I don’t think they would have made this deal if they didn’t intend to keep him next year. With Nathan uncertain, he gives them a proven closer through next season.

  24. Jim H July 31, 2010 at 10:31 am #

    Ramos seems like a lot to give up for Capps, but that depends on how you see his bat. I thought that his bat might be good enough so he could share dh/c with Mauer and maybe even let one of them spell Morneau at 1b. If the bat is not that good/will not be that good, then this trade makes more sense. It also seems to say that the blogsphere is overvaluing the near ready relief help at AAA/AA. Which is certainly possible. I watched Slama on tv the first night when he struck out 2 against Baltimore. It looked like he threw at least 2 fastballs right down the middle of the plate-waist high. The hitters didn’t do anything with those pitches but it he doesn’t seem he throws hard enough to get away with that on a regular basis. If he is the best of the near ready relief help, that might help explain Capps.

    This trade may turn out to be a disaster. I don’t like to see the Twins trade a potential star quality everyday players for even a very good reliever(and there seems to some question as to how good this one is). Still I have a quite a bit of faith in the evalulation ability of the Twins FO. My guess is that Capps will be here for awhile and that he will be pretty good. How good Ramos turns out to be will make or break the trade.

  25. Pradesh July 31, 2010 at 2:59 pm #

    For the rest of this season, the Twins should go with a four person starting rotation, quickly yanking their starters whenever they are in the least bit of trouble (with the exception of Pavano) to turn to their bullpen.

    1st inning thru the 5th
    Pavano
    Liriano
    Duensing
    Baker or Slowey (depending on who excels)

    6th – Crain or Mijares
    7th – Guerrier or Mijares
    8th – Rauch
    9th – Joe Kapp

    For spot relief, its up to either Slama or Mahay

    When there are blowouts (either way), the worst of either Baker or Slowey should be deployed, to give the bullpen a rest.

  26. Bill in Sarasota July 31, 2010 at 7:35 pm #

    If the Twins scouts are so high on Capps, why didn’t they convince Smith to sign him to a $8 million ,two year contract when he was released after last year?
    If they offer arb to Capps then he’s going to get $6-8 million for next year.
    This is a panic move pushed by Gardy.
    The only positive is if the Twins offer arb and overpay for Capps, they will not need one or two of their other relievers who will be FA which may bring back a 1st rd comp pick next year.

  27. TT August 1, 2010 at 5:11 pm #

    Bill –

    I would guess that the Twins were not in a market for a closer last winter. And Capps had not only given up one run, on a home run, in the past month. This guy is younger than Duensing and only slightly older than Liriano. He’s been in the majors for 4 years, but he very likely hasn’t reached his full potential.

    Nathan was older with a lot shorter track record when the Twins traded a proven major league allstar catcher for him. Ramos is, at best, a guy with huge potential which he may of may not ever reach. If his career turns out as good as Pierzynski’s, the Nats will consider this a success.

    At least one person, the arbitrator, won’t think the Twins are overpaying. Paying $6-8 million for a proven major league closer isn’t overpaying. The Twins are going to pay Nathan $11.25 million next year, as they are this year. If Capps continues to pitch the way he has recently, he will be cheap.

  28. JC August 1, 2010 at 11:28 pm #

    Watch, Capps will get a 3 year extension after the season for around $18 million.

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