Archive | December, 2010

Looking Back at 2010

31 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Last night, I hosted a special two-hour SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast. It was a full show. It’s hard to believe that two-hours may not have been enough time for the show. In all, 15 guests joined the show and talked about their top memories and top stories from 2010. We also shared some ideas for the Twins offseason and some had predictions for 2011. It was a seriously fun show. The challenge was to set up the schedule, but I really think it would be a fun show to listen to. So, if you are able to, and would like to listen to the show and come up with your own list of memories for 2010, click here.

Guests on tonight’s show included:

Before the show, I looked back at my Archives and went back to the beginning of 2010. Here are some of my favorite memories, and please feel free to add yours:

January

  • Bert Blyleven six votes shy of Hall of Fame induction – hopefully in the next week to ten days, one of the Twins top 2011 stories will happen and Blyleven will be announced as a 2011 inductee to baseball’s Hall of Fame. With Jesse Crain leaving the Twins for Chicago, it is also time to retire his uniform number.
  • Twins Sign Clay Condrey – Certainly it didn’t turn out well since Condrey was injured the entire season, but I liked the signing. An extreme ground ball pitcher in the middle innings is never a bad thing.
  • Twins Sign Jim Thome – for $1.5 million plus some incentives, he was the free agent signing of the year!

February

  • Twins Sign 2B Matt Gaski – OK, that wasn’t too big of a deal. I’d say the minor league free agents they have brought in this offseason have been much more exciting.
  • Twins Sign 2B Orlando Hudson – Two days later, the Twins signed Hudson to a 1 year, $5 million contract. He filled the team’s need for a 2B and for a #2 hitter. Hudson played well in the first half, for sure.
  • Pitchers and Catchers report to Ft. Myers – Always a great sign of spring!

March

  • Twins Lock of Nick Blackburn and Denard Span to long-term contracts. Both were met with mixed feelings, but again showed Twins willingness to retain their own players.
  • Joe Nathan injured in spring and soon after, has Tommy John surgery – This story can’t be overplayed when discussing the Twins 2010 season.
  • On March 21, the Twins and Joe Mauer agreed to an eight year, $184 million deal – At the time, I wrote that the deal would never make sense from purely a baseball standpoint, but it still made sense for the Twins. It was a move that had to be made. As disappointing as this offseason has been, imagine how frustrated Twins fans would be if Mauer was still a free agent. How much would the Yankees pay Mauer if they were willing to overpay for Russell Martin? Think the Red Sox would have thrown some years and dollars at Mauer rather than go back to Jason Varitek?
  • Ramos to AAA, Neshek makes team – The final roster spots were a big topic. Wilson Ramos or Drew Butera as Joe Mauer’s backup, and could Neshek return.

April

  • Target Field and the Twins hosted the St. Louis Cardinals in an exhibition game, the first Major League game in the team’s new stadium. My brother and I went. You probably saw it, or at least pictures of it on Twitter, Facebook or here. Yes, I enjoy the Nachos Grande at Target Field. As Bert Blyleven noted, yes, I was ‘stuffing my face.’ But the thing I noted above all else at that game was the drainage system. It poured most of the morning and poured hard until 3:00. It was a 5:00 game, and the field was in great shape. Whatever the cost of the drainage system, it was worth it.
  • April 5th was Opening Night. The Twins lost a game to the Angels, but Delmon Young hit a home run, beat out an infield single and stole a base. It was a sign of things to come.
  • April 12th was a day that the Twins and their fans have been waiting for since the schedule came out. Opening Day at Target Field. The Twins did it right. FSN had all-day coverage. The pregame festivities were terrific. It was a great day to be a Twins fan. And hey, the Twins won.
  • Francisco Liriano was a big question mark coming into the season. At one point in April, he threw 23 consecutive scoreless innings. The common statement or belief was that we may never see the 2006 version of Liriano, but the streak made me wonder when it might be OK to start thinking that he just might get to that level again?
  • Luke Hughes was called up to the Twins in late April. He made his first start, and in his first at bat, he hit an opposite field home run off of the Tigers’ Max Scherzer.
  • Kyle Gibson threw a one-hitter for the Ft. Myers Miracle.

May

  • Dan Osterbrock pitched a seven inning no-hitter for the Beloit Snappers. The lefty was the pitcher of the week in the Midwest League two straight weeks and then was promoted to Ft. Myers where he may have been even better.
  • Wilson Ramos was promoted to make some starts while Joe Mauer was hurt. He had four hits in his big league debut, and then followed it up with three hits in the next game.
  • Kyle Gibson was promoted to Double-A New Britain.
  • Mariano Rivera entered the game at Yankees Stadium with the Bronx Bombers leading by four runs. The bases were loaded and Jim Thome came to the plate. Rivera walked Thome. The next batter was Jason Kubel and he drilled a Rivera cutter into the right field bleachers for a grand slam, and it gave the Twins their first win at Yankees Stadium in a long time.
  • Trevor Plouffe was promoted to the Twins when JJ Hardy was put on the Disabled List in late May. In his first game, at Target Field against the Brewers, he collected two hits.
  • I made a trip to Beloit with Josh Johnson to watch a couple of Snappers games against Cedar Rapids. The experience was terrific. It was fun to see some of the players in person that we had only ‘seen’ in box scores and stat lines. It is completely a different perspective, and I think something that is important for fans to experience.

June

  • Danny Valencia was promoted.
  • The Twins drafted Alex Wimmers with their first-round pick.
  • Francisco Liriano struck out 11 batters against the Braves in eight innings. At one point, he struck out seven hitters in a row.
  • Scott Baker struck out 12 batters in six innings against the Colorado Rockies.

July

  • Cliff Lee rumors were abundant throughout the month.
  • My brother rand I went on a Twins Train trip to Detroit. It was a great opportunity to travel on a chartered bus with a big group of baseball fans. We were able to watch the Twins play two games against the Tigers in Comerica Park, drive through the good and bad areas of Detroit, and go out at night. We got to go through downtown Chicago on the drive back. Hopefully the Twins Train will be active again in 2011. I’d love to take another trip. Maybe we can work with the owner of the Twins Train and put together a Twins Train/SethSpeaks trip. Thoughts?
  • Ben Revere and Anthony Slama represented the Twins and the United States in the Futures game in Anaheim. Liam Hendriks was supposed to represent the World Team and Australia in the game, but he had an emergency appendectomy.
  • On July 20th, Joe Mauer laid down… The Bunt.
  • Danny Valencia had quite the series in Kansas City. In game one, he had three hits. In game two, he had three hits. In game three, he had four hits including a first-inning grand slam against Zach Greinke. In game four, he had four hits.  

August

  • I officially moved away from the Twin Cities, and on August 1 moved back into my house in Warroad.
  • Brian Duensing pitched a complete game shutout against the Oakland A’s.
  • Then Kevin Slowey threw seven no-hit innings against the A’s. He was making his first start after missing time with a arm soreness. It was a controversial decision at the time, but it was clearly the right decision.
  • Down by one against the White Sox, Delmon Young led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a single. Matt Thornton was pitching for the White Sox, looking for the save. His former teammate, Jim Thome, stepped to the plate. On the first pitch, Thome swung wildly and missed. But on the 0-1 pitch, he got a high-fastball from the Sox lefty, and Thome connected. He drilled a long, towering blast, deep into the night and well beyond the right field wall to give the Twins a big win over the White Sox. I was in the 5th row, just to the right of the Twins dugout for the game, and it was by far the highlight of my Twins season in 2010.

September

  • In the wee hours of September 3, I heard and blogged that it would be Matt Fox making the start for the Twins the next day. The Twins were struggling, and the bullpen had been overused that night. Fox was the right choice as he was pitching better than other starters in Rochester at that time. Fox got to the field for a big Friday night game against the Rangers. And he pitched a terrific game. He gave up two runs on four hits and a walk in 5.2 innings. Two days later, the Twins took him off of their 40 man roster. He was claimed by the Red Sox a couple of days later.
  • The Twins swept the Rangers that Labor Day weekend while celebrating their 50th season in the Twin Cities. They announced the 50 Greatest Twins players. Many of them played in Sunday’s Old Timers game. It was a great weekend.
  • In Cleveland, Jim Thome hit his 587th home run to pass Frank Robinson on the home run list.
  • The Twins went to Chicago, hoping to win one game and maintain their lead in the AL Central. Instead, the Twins swept and completely dominated the White Sox, essentially ending the White Sox shot at surpassing the Twins.
  • Late in the month, the Twins beat Cleveland. In the clubhouse, they watched the end of the A’s/White Sox game. When former Twin Craig Breslow closed out the game, the Twins won the AL Central again and celebrated in the clubhouse and out on Target Field.
  • Joe Benson was named the Sherry Robertson Award recipient as the Twins top minor league hitter. Kyle Gibson was named the winner of the Jim Rantz Award as the organization’s top minor league pitcher.

October

  • Swept in the first round of the playoffs… to the Yankees… again!

November

  • The Twins signed a bunch of veteran minor leaguers to help the Rochester and New Britain rosters. Names like Jeff Bailey and Yorman Bazardo, Chas Lambin and Chuck James may not be exciting, but they will help the Red Wings, and they will keep the Twins from pushing prospects before they are ready. .
  • Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni and David Bromberg were added to the 40 man roster.
  • The Twins placed the winning bid for the rights to negotiate with Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

December

  • JJ Hardy traded to the Orioles for James Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
  • Within about 24 hours, Matt Guerrier signed a three year deal with the Dodgers, and then Jesse Crain signed for three years with the White Sox.
  • The Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a three year deal with an option for a fourth year.
  • Twins traded catcher Jose Morales to the Rockies for minor league left-handed reliever Paul Bargas.

2010 has certainly been a good year for the Twins and for Twins fans. It was another good year for me and SethSpeaks.net as well. I want to take this moment to thank a few people. First, thank you to the TwinsCentric guys; John Bonnes, Parker Hageman and Nick Nelson. These three are incredibly talented and prominent writers. But there are a lot of great Twins bloggers, and all deserve to be noticed. Please take a minute or two and check out some of the Twins blogs on the left side of this screen. The monthly TwinsCentric events at bars around the metro area were largely successful. The best part of it was providing an opportunity to meet other Twins bloggers and great fans that take time to read our sites.

I want to thank Chad Abbott and Paul Allen of KFAN for giving me the opportunity to be on a segment of the 9 to Noon show. That was a great opportunity and I do appreciate it. Thank you also to Dan Hammer who has had me on his show on 40 The Fan in Fargo, and to Jack Michaels in Bismarck.

Obviously I remain busy with the 2011 Prospect Handbook and with the Twins 2011 Annual from TwinsCentric and Maple Street Press. But taking a step back, 2010 has been a great year, and hopefully 2011 will be even better.

Thank you, most of all, to those who read this blog and/or the TwinsCentric blog, listen to the podcasts, have bought the books and continued to support me, the Twins, blogging and such. It means a lot. Thank you, and Happy New Year to each of you, and your families!

If you have any questions or thoughts, please feel free to e-mail me. Leave Comments here.

SethSpeaks.net Year-End Twins Podcast Tonight at 8

30 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Tonight, starting at 8:00 central time, I will be hosting a special two-hour SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast. In those two hours, we will have somewhere between 10 and 12 guests to discuss what happened in 2010, a little on the offseason, and projecting 2011.

One person who will be traveling and unable to participate in the show tonight is Twins pitcher Jeff Manship, but he did want to participate. He gave me his two most memorable moments of 2010:

“My most memorable experience from last year was the night we won the Central Division. We had just finished our game and everyone was in the clubhouse watching the A’s White Sox game. Going into the 9th the A’s had a good sized lead and Craig Breslow was pitching so a lot of guys knew him from the previous year and were yelling words of encouragement at the TV. Also a lot of champagne bottles had their wire removed from over the cork and a couple bottles popped early before the game was done so everyone was yelling. When the A’s finally won everyone went nuts. It’s been great being a part of two celebrations now, and I don’t even have one full season under my belt.

Another great moment for me personally was my first call-up of the year. It’s always fun having the manager call you into his office to give you the news you’re going up. I was able to experience that five different times last season. I’m guessing I set a record for most calls ups in a season.”  

It was definitely an interesting year for Manship and the Twins. And thankfully, it was another great year for Twins fans, full of wins and talking points!

Following the podcast, I will post a look-back at 2010. When you review it on a month-by-month basis, it is a lot of fun. It was an exciting year for the Twins and for Twins fans.

So, be sure to check out the podcast tonight. Several of your favorite bloggers and media members will be on the show, and I’m working to confirm a few Twins and Twins minor league players as well.

If you have any questions or thoughts, please feel free to e-mail me. Leave Comments here.

Divisional Rankings

28 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net and StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog:

The below article was posted on the StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog on Monday morning. To comment (or read other comments), click here.

I hear so often that the Twins have won division titles in baseball’s weakest division, the AL Central. I have never bought that, at least not in recent years.

In reality, it doesn’t matter. A team can only play the schedule they are presented with. It’s not like the college football scheduling where a team like the Gophers can schedule USD (South Dakota) or USC (Southern California). With the unbalanced schedule, this debate can be had and there may not really be an answer at the end of the day. That said, it’s a topic that should at least be discussed.

But again, how important is it, really? I bet if you asked former Twins outfielder Marty Cordova right now how important things like where the AL Central ranks, or first-round playoff losses, or pretty much anything, he will remind us of exactly how important it is. You see, less than two weeks ago, Cordova’s daughter was in a car accident and has been in a coma ever since. According to Cordova, “They’re hoping she’ll come back 100 percent, but there’s no way to tell what her brain is going to do. There’s no magic shot. There’s no surgery to help. Only time can tell.”

So again, it’s amazing how life has a tendency to again remind us of just how important the great game of baseball is in the grand scheme of things. But it is a nice escape, and today I will spend a little time investigating and ranking baseball’s divisions. Again, this is only looking at the 2010 season. Please feel free to go back to previous years if you have some free time!

If a division is judged by its leader, it’s best team, here is how the divisions fell in 2010:

1.) NL East – Philadelphia Phillies – 97-65, 2.) AL East – Tampa Bay Rays – 96-66, 3.) AL Central – Minnesota Twins – 94-68, 4.) NL West – San Francisco Giants – 92-70, 5.) NL Central – Cincinnati Reds – 91-71, 6.) AL West – Texas Rangers – 90-72.

Or, could one say that a division can only be judged by its weakest link?

1.) NL East – Washington Nationals – 69-93, 2.) AL Central – Kansas City Royals – 67-95, 3.) AL East – Baltimore Orioles – 66-96, 4.) NL West – Arizona Diamondbacks – 65-97, 5.) AL West – Seattle Mariners – 61-101, 6.) NL Central – Pittsburgh Pirates.

We can look at it by the divisions’ overall record:

1.) AL East – 431-379 (.532), 2.) NL East – 416-394 (.514), 3.) NL West – 410-400 (.506), 4.) AL Central – 399-411 (.493), 5.) AL West – 312-336 (.482), 6.) NL Central – 462-510 (.475)

How about looking at the records against the other two divisions in its league? (AL teams won 110 out of 210 inter-league gamesin 2010. Not included because schedules way too different.)

1.) AL East – 206-154 (.572), 2.) NL East – 192-174 (.525), 3.) NL West – 195-180 (.520), 4.) AL Central – 172-188 (.478), 5.) NL Central – 188-221 (.460), 6.) 156-192 (.448).

How many teams in each division finished with a .500 record or better?

1.) AL East – 4 out of 5 (80%), 2.) AL Central & NL West – 3 out of 5 (60%), 4.) AL West – 2 out of 4 (50%), 5.) NL East – 2 out of 5 (40%), 6.) NL Central – 2 out of 6 (33%).

So there are five ways to consider which division is the strongest and/or weakest. If anyone wants to tell you that the AL Central is the worst division in baseball, ask them, “Based on what?” There is no way that the AL Central was the weakest division. Was it the best division? Of course not. Clearly the AL East and the NL East were likely the top divisions. The AL Central and the NL West likely would rank third and fourth, depending on how you want to look at it. The NL Central and the AL West were clearly worse than the AL Central in 2010.

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Happy Holidays

24 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Good morning and Happy Holidays to everyone!

Just a real quick note as you can imagine today and tomorrow will be rather busy, and I’m hoping to not spend too much time at the computer. But if you eat a bit much, and all of your family falls asleep after a big meal, and you just sneak to the computer and happen to come here, please feel free to e-mail me some of your thoughts on sethspeaks.net, the podcasts, radio appearances, the books, TwinsCentric, or anything. 2010 has been a big year for me and for blogging, and it’s exciting, but there is always room for improvement, and I will always welcome your e-mails for thoughts, suggestions, etc.

Today, I will be on 740 TheFan in Fargo at about 12:30. So, see if your Christmas Eve lunch plans can be moved to 1:00 so that you and your family can all snuggle around the transistor radio (or online) and listen to some Twins talk. I’m sure that fits in with the rest of your traditions, right?

Also, here are our panel’s Week 16 football picks.

Again, I just want to say thank you to all of the other Twins bloggers, the TwinsCentric guys, the Twins media, the Twins organization, and to you readers and podcast listeners for all of your support throughout the year (or years, in many cases). I hope for your continued support. So with that, I do welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me, if you would like.

Thank you, and again, Happy Holidays to you, and your families!

The Waiting Game

23 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

In recent weeks, many Twins fans have become increasingly frustrated with the Twins lack of movement. In many eyes, the Twins are waiting on Carl Pavano to decide if he wants to return to the team before moving forward with other moves. Obviously a commitment to Pavano is not something to be taken lightly. If the Twins sign him, it’s likely going to eat up $9-10 million out whatever their payroll will be. That’s a significant chunk.

However, was waiting for Pavano the right move? Did waiting for Pavano cost them Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier or other free agents that they could have spent more time and energy on?

Obviously none of us know. Only those in the front office know the big picture of the Pavano situation and what effects, if any, have been related.

But Pavano himself has also been playing a waiting game, and to be frank, he has lost big time.

At the onset of the offseason, there was Cliff Lee, Jorge de La Rosa and Carl Pavano. De La Rosa quickly re-signed with the Rockies to a two year, $21.5 million deal that includes a player option for the third year at $10.5 million, and then a team option for 2014. Many thought that would set the market for Pavano. Cliff Lee was in his own stratosphere in terms of years and dollars, but some thought that Pavano should wait for Lee to sign because the teams that lost out on the lefty could fall back to Pavano. Well, since Lee signed with the Phillies, teams have not been knocking down Pavano’s door. Obviously the Yankees won’t go there again. But surprisingly, the Texas Rangers have expressed little interest. One team that showed a lot of interest at the winter meetings was the Milwaukee Brewers. However, they have traded for pitchers Shawn Marcum and then Zack Greinke, so they are likely out of discussion. Rich Harden has signed. And now Brandon Webb is garnering much more attention than Pavano.

So, as of right now, the Washington Nationals continue to show interest, but not for more than one year, and the Twins. There is some belief that the Twins have told Pavano to come to them with the offers that he receives, to give them the opportunity to match. In reality, I now wonder if Pavano actually even has any other options than to return to the Twins.

What the Twins now need to do is be a little more aggressive and give Pavano and his agent a deadline. The Twins need the situation resolved so that they can move on if necessary.

Pavano and his agent may have overplayed their hand, and it’s looking more and more like Pavano will no longer get the type of contract that he may have earlier in the offseason.

Why? Let me count the ways. First, he does have that Type A status hanging over him. Teams do not want to give up draft picks. If the Nationals sign him, they would only lose a 3rd round pick because their first round pick is protected and their 2nd round pick will go to the Phillies for signing Jayson Werth. The Tigers  may be an option, but they would have to give up their first round pick. That factor can’t be minimized. Secondly, Pavano will turn 35 in January. As much as Pavano’s two consecutive 200+ inning seasons likely earned him a multi-year deal, I can’t blame teams for being hesitant. He hasn’t been a beacon of health in his career. He isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He likely will never duplicate, or come close to duplicating his 2010 numbers again. If teams like the Rangers, Angels, Red Sox and others are staying away, there are reasons, and I understand that.

I spent about 20 minutes on Fanatic Jack’s podcast last night, and I bet Jack a meal sometime that both Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey would have better 2011 seasons than Carl Pavanoo. Does that mean that I don’t think that the Twins should bring back Pavano? Not necessarily. But do I think they should overspend? Absolutely not.

The Twins do have options. At least three of their starting five, without Pavano, should be expected to be significantly better. Liriano has room to improve still. And, if they don’t waste spend $10 million on Pavano now, they will be able to 1.) give their internal options first-shot to earn starting roles, and 2.) have plenty of money available in June and July to make moves. That is when Bill Smith has shined. He has made moves the last two years in July and August that have helped the Twins. I like the idea of giving guys one more chance and then finding out midseason what the actual needs are. It might not be starting pitching. It might not even be the bullpen. We don’t know.

Have the Twins overplayed their cards on Carl Pavano? The argument certainly could be made. Have Carl Pavano and his agent played the waiting game too? Absolutely, and it is looking more and more like a game they are losing.

What do you think? What is going to happen? Will the Twins sign Pavano, and if so when, and for how much? And if not, what is the plan? What are the options?

What do you think? E-mail me or leave your comments here.

Still Building from Within

21 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net and www.startribune.com/blogs/twinscentric.

Look back a decade: Torii Hunter spent a couple of seasons making people wonder about his skills before becoming a star. Look back a generation: Frank Viola spent two seasons with a five-plus ERA before blossoming. Tell me why Casilla is utterly hopeless?

Howard Sinker in his A Fan’s View blog yesterday made a tremendous point. It is important to remain patient. Of course, in Viola’s third year, he posted a 3.21 ERA over 257.2 innings. I think Alexi Casilla will be fine. I think that Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be just fine. Will either post a .730 OPS? Probably not, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t fill their roles adequately. I just don’t think that offense will be the biggest issue for the Twins in 2011. Pitching, both starting and bullpen, is where there are question marks, but the cupboard is not empty.

What I would like to see is if 29-year-old Scott Baker, in his seventh season with the Twins, can hit 200 innings (or post a sub-4.20 ERA) for just the second time, and earn his $5 million salary. I’d like to see Kevin Slowey, in his fifth big league season, be 100% healthy, and see what he can do. He threw 199 innings in 2007 between Rochester and Minnesota. I’d like to see Nick Blackburn get back to going 11-11 with an ERA between 4.03 and 4.05 like he did in 2008 and 2009. As bad as portions of their 2010 seasons were, none of this is unrealistic. They have done it before. Along with that, maybe Brian Duensing can prove a lot of us wrong and put together another strong season in 2011, hopefully the full season as a starter. And, Francisco Liriano put himself back in discussion for best pitchers in the league (which is also helped by Cliff Lee moving to the NL). If healthy, he can still continue to improve.

So, if Carl Pavano leaves for greener pastures in places like Washington, D.C., or Pittsburgh, it really is not the end of the world. What are the odds that he could post a 3.75 ERA again or throw another 221 innings in a season? Not terribly good.

The Twins have a history of building from within, or giving opportunities to players who have come up through their system, and to stand behind them through struggles. We have seen it time and again. And for the most part over the last decade, it has paid off. The Twins have used free agents to complement their core of home-grown players. Last year, there wasn’t a solid internal option at second base, so they signed Orlando Hudson.

Last week, the Twins lost Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier to free agency. It is likely that they will not bring back Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch or Ron Mahay either. Fans, understandably, are up in arms about the lack of certainty in the Twins bullpen. There is no certainty that Joe Nathan will return to form in 2011. Jose Mijares is immensely talented, but he was up and down in 2010. Matt Capps is the given in the Twins bullpen, and he is what he is (a solid reliever). Beyond that, there are a lot of question marks.

Twins fans don’t want to hear about someone like Glen Perkins being a bullpen option in 2011. There are also a lot of guys with little or no big league experience being mentioned as options. I understand that is scary. We want certainty in the bullpen, right? Certainty, in this case, would have been retaining Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier because they are veterans, right? But if I read the comments here at the StarTribune.com blogs or many Twins blogs, most blog commenters were not big fans of Jesse Crain. Most blog commenters were not exactly confident when Matt Guerrier would come into games. But aside from Rafael Soriano, Brian Fuentes and Type A free agent and former Twins pitcher Grant Balfour, few relievers have been more reliable than Crain and Guerrier. And you didn’t want them back. So, who would be out there at this stage that could be counted on more? I am a proponent of signing RHP Jose Veras and LHP Hideki Okajima, but in each case, there are reasons that their 2010 team non-tendered them. Certainly not guarantees.

Simply stated, there are very few reliable relief pitchers from year to year. Most (or at least many) relief pitchers are failed starters. There are a lot of injuries. It is in the bullpen where you can find diamonds in the rough. It’s where guys (like Guerrier) who are out of options to get an opportunity, and a few take advantage of it. Look at the Yankees’ David Robertson. In 2009, he was a question mark. In 2010, he was getting put into some pretty big situations for the pinstripes.

With that said, there are a lot of options for breakout types in the Twins bullpen. Remember that they only need three or four of these guys to produce for the Twins in 2011:

  • Anthony Slama - It amazes me that many Twins fans seem to think he can’t contribute to the team. Are people really willing to say that a poor 4.2 inning debut in the big leagues tells us that he can’t pitch up there? Really? His 1.95 ERA over four minor league seasons mean nothing? His 12.5 K/9 means nothing? His 1.06 WHIP? His 2.44 ERA in one-plus seasons at AAA mean nothing? Bloggers and blog commenters have been clamoring for Slama for a few years, and now they’ll give up on him? Because of 4.2 bad innings? I think Slama can be a solid 7th inning guy.
  • Alex Burnett - he has a chance to be really good. He came up as a starter, a successful starter, but in 2009, he moved to the bullpen. Despite not pitching in AAA, and only a short time in AA, he was on teh Twins Opening Day roster and spent most of the first half with the Twins. He struggled as the season went along, but he has great stuff and will definitely be back with the Twins, eventually pitching late innings.
  • Pat Neshek - It amazes me how quickly some Twins fans turned on the sind-winding reliever. Yes, his velocity was down. I get that. But this year, he will get an actual offseason of working out and preparing, not an offseason of rehabilitation. Will he come back and be as incredible as he was in 2006 and 2007? Maybe, maybe not, but I’m willing to give him that opportunity.
  • James Hoey - Similarly, there was a lot of excitement about Hoey with the Orioles in 2006 and 2007. The righty throws hard and was generally thought to be the closer of the future with Baltimore. And then he had shoulder surgery, and he worked his way back up the ladder. His velocity is back. The strikeouts are back. He will need to cut down walks, but he is a power arm that the Twins bullpen needs.
  • Rob Delaney - Delaney was undrafted in 2006 and dominated the lower levels of the minor leagues, including AA. AAA has been more of a struggle, but consider that in 80 AAA innings, he walked just 23 and struck out 92. Sure, his one inning in the big leagues last September wasn’t pretty. He looked nervous and gave up a homer, a single and a walk before getting the three outs. But again, I’ve heard some say that he can’t handle the big leagues because of that one outing.
  • Kyle Waldrop - It surprised a lot of people that the Twins didn’t protece Waldrop after a terrific 2010 season with the Rochester Red Wings. Since returning from his shoulder surgery, he has been incredible out of the bullpen. After 20 games in Ft. Myers, he posted a 1.46 ERA in 31 New Britain games. He posted a 2.57 ERA in 2010 in Rochester, but his ERA was at ONE halfway through the 2010 season. Yes, he was not good in the Arizona Fall League, but he still has a chance to be a very good, groundball reliever.
  • Glen Perkins - A left-hander who did succeed a few years ago as a starter, he looks to be a lefty reliever in 2010. Of course, he doesn’t get left-handed batters out, so I just don’t know how he can contribute, but stranger things have happened when players get opportunities.
  • Eric Hacker, Yorman Bazardo, Jeff Manship, Anthony Swarzak, Chuck James - These guys could all get an opportunity for a long relief role. Manship filled the role toward the end of 2010 and could do so again, but the others are options.
  • Carlos Gutierrez - In a podcast just last week, Gutierrez informed me that he wants to pitch out of the bullpen, that it is where he is ‘at home.’ However, he acknowledged that spending the last couple of years as a starter has been valuable in helping him develop secondary pitches. I’m frequently asked who could be the 2011 version of Danny Valencia. Kyle Gibson certainly could come up in June and contributed as a starter. Carlos Gutierrez could come up in June and really help out the Twins bullpen.

Are any of those big name acquisitions? No. They are internal options. Can any of them contribute to the Twins in 2011? Absolutely. Can three of four of them join Nathan, Capps and Mijares to form a solid bullpen? Defintely. Am I just trying to be positive here? Probably. But can the internal choices be equal or better than the external, high-cost free agents? Absolutely.

The Twins historically have relied upon their own players, on building from within. It’s been a philosophy that has worked well for them. Even if their payroll has gone from $65 million to $100 million to $115 million, there is no reason to start spending foolishly on free agents or giving up the farm for players who might help. Can the Twins win the division with their current roster? I think so. It’d be tough, but I would not put it against them.

To be fair (and honest), I have been immensely frustrated with the Twins offseason. I expected them to wisely stay away from high-dollar free agents. I thought we might hear more about trades than we have. The Twins might soon spend a lot of money for two or three years on a guy who is already 35 years old. They could also give two years to a 40 year old one-dimensional player. I’m sure those moves will make a lot of fans happy. Maybe I’m strange. I figure there are six or seven weeks until pitchers and catchers report, so I still hold out that the team will add an impact player, the type of player who can make a difference without breaking the bank. But I don’t know that the team is better. I also don’t know what the Twins plans are, or their contingency plans are (if Pavano and/or Thome were to sign elsewhere). No one does because the Twins front office is great at not letting information leak We can’t all be Jim Breen!

Finally, Twins fans need to remember one important thing… at least the Twins and their stability is a lot better than following the Vikings and their chaos this year!

MORE TO READ TODAY:

Here are a few more articles for you to peruse throughout the day:

·         JJ Stankevitz has been a frequent guest of the SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast. He does a great job as the blogger for the White Sox site on Examiner.com. He is also a student at the University of Missouri where he writes for KBIA Sports Extra as well. He recently had the opportunity to meet fellow Missouri student/alumni and current Twins prospect Kyle Gibson. The results were a terrific article on Gibson.

·         Parker from Over the Baggy posted an article on the blueprint for a bullpen.

·         Needless to say, Fanatic Jack is Dazed and Confused about what is going on with the Twins offseason. It is really hard to disagree with him.

·         Twinkie Town has now completed its Top Ten Twins Prospects and you can now vote for Twins Prospect #11. Roger Dehring is going a great job of running the polls, and the discussion is terrific for anyone interested in Twins prospects.

Be sure to tune in to tonight’s SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast, live at 9:00.

Monday Twins Notes

20 Dec

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Good Monday morning, Twins Fans! Thanks again for stopping by SethSpeaks.net. I think I have this site figured out, although I am using a different system that I just don’t know well at all yet, so bear with me. Today, I’ll just cover a few topics to start off the week.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka Signs and Meets Press

On Thursday afternoon, it became known that the Twins and Tsuyoshi Nishioka had reached an agreement on a three-year contract. There was no surprise because he was not going to travel to Minnesota without having general terms figured out. The press conference was shown live on FSNorth.com, and it was interesting to watch. After answering a question from LaVelle E. Neal, Nishioka wanted to make a quick statement. Impressively, he spoke in English. He introduced himself and said he was happy to be in the Twins family. The rest of his statements and comments were interpreted by a translator. Asked about his role, he said that he sees his job as trying to touch home plate as much as possible. Asked whether he has a preference to play shortstop or second base, he came back with a great Twins answer, that he is still new to the team and will do whatever the manager wants him to do, but he will prepare for both. In fact, if the manager wants him to be the ball boy, he will do so happily. It was fun to watch. Bill Smith specifically talked about how important it was for the Twins to be recognized in Japan. Ron Gardenhire congratulated the UMD Bulldogs who won the Division II National Championship for the second time in the last three years.

So, now Nishioka is signed, about a week before the deadline. Obviously he will start at either shortstop or second base. It was good to see his wife, Naoka Tokuzawa, who is a model. Nishioka is a celebrity as well, and I am sure you have seen his Adidas commercials over the past year or two from Japan. This is a nice signing. I am thinking a .700 OPS would be about what I would expect. He has a nice, smooth swing. He does have a good glove. He isn’t Ichiro ,but that isn’t to say he can’t be a very solid contributor to a winning team. He also has the speed thing that Gardy and Bill Smith have talked about. Fans and stat-heads can talk about UZR and OPS and such, and I’m right there with them. But think about this… how many times during the course of a season will JJ Hardy be on 1B with two outs and not be able to score on a double? Nishioka will be about to score on that. Is it 10 runs a year? 5? 15? I know that’s not a measurable statistic, but it is a fair point to bring up.

Zach Greinke Traded to Milwaukee

Late on Saturday night, Jim Breen of the blog Bernie’s Crew posted a blog saying that he was hearing a lot of rumors about a trade bringing Greinke to the Brewers. In fact, he was specific enough to say that what he was hearing was that the Brewers would get Greinke and shortstop Yunieski Betancourt from the Royals in exchange for shortstop Alcides Escobar, outfielder Lorenzo Cain and minor league pitchers Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. Many didn’t buy the reports because it came from a blogger, as opposed to someone from the main stream media. After it became official, Breen tweeted that he had received upset phone calls from people with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the paper that hosts Bernie’s Crew, unhappy with the blog posting. In the end, I was happy to see the blog get its due on ESPN’s bottom line and SportsCenter and around the Twitter universe and more places.

So, the Brewers get the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner with a lot to prove. He was incredible in 2009, and just mediocre in 2010. He can be dominant, but playing with the Royals, it may be difficult to find it every time out. Greinke should do well the next two years, although it certainly isn’t a slam dunk, and who knows how he will respond should the Brewers become a contender. Now, based on their rotation, the Brewers should be in contention in the NL Central. Their starting rotation will be Yovani Gallardo, Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf. It should help their against a Cardinals’ rotation that features Adam Wainright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook. I’m not sure that either competes with the Phillies (Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt) or the Giants (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner), but they are very good. The Brewers certainly are “going for it” this offseason, likely coming to the realization that they will not be able to rid themselves of Prince Fielder for what they would be looking for in return. So, they will try to win by putting together an impressive pitching staff to surround the likes of Fielder, Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, etc. Note that the Brewers gave up their top hitting prospect, Brett Lawrie, to acquire Shawn Marcum from Toronto. Of course, the Royals also got the Brewers to take back Yunieski Betancourt, who is coming off of his best season since 2007 (a .692 OPS despite 16 homers).

So, what did the Royals get in return? Escobar is a very good glove at shortstop. He is the reason that the Brewers were willing to trade JJ Hardy a year ago. Offensively, he posted a .614 OPS, so he may not contribute much with the bat. Lorenzo Cain is a very good defensive centerfielder. In his 158 plate appearances with the Brewers, he hit .306/.348/.415 with 11 doubles and a homer. He began the season at AA and in 62 games, he hit .324/.409/.434 with 15 extra base hits. He moved up to AAA and in 22 games, he hit .299/.384/.425. He appears to have a little bit of a future, whether it is right away as a 25 year old big leaguer in 2011 or within the next year. Jeremy Jeffress pitched 18 games between Hi-A and AA in 2010, and then made ten relief appearances for the Brewers at the end of the season. The guy has a million dollar arm. He was the team’s 1st round pick in 2006 and legitimately throws 100 mph. But he has a ten cent head. The guy has been suspended twice for a “drug of abuse.” The first failed test is a warning. The second failed test is a 50 game suspension. In 2009, he was suspended for 100 games for his third failed test. One more failed test, and he faces a lifetime ban from baseball. Finally, Jake Odorizzi, the team’s 1st round pick in 2008, was also part of the trade. He was recently named the team’s top prospect and went 7-3 with a 3.43 ERA in the Midwest League. The 20 year old has upside, but he is obviously the furthest from the big leagues. So, the Royals definitely got some talent, and three of the players have big league service time already. The Royals already had baseball’s top minor league system, and this trade only helps that.

So the question I got asked throughout Sunday was could the Twins have sent an equivalent package to the Royals in exchange for Greinke. The first answer to that question is No, the Royals weren’t going to trade Greinke to the Twins unless the package was completely overwhelming. But getting beyond that simple fact… who are some comparables? The Twins don’t have a player in their system comparable to Alcides Escobar. He’s young and plays terrific defense. Not much offense. I’ve said Nishioka might be a nice comparable, although Escobar is about three years younger. Ben Revere could be a comparable to Lorenzo Cain in that he did spend a month with the Twins, but Revere is not as good defensively and does not have any power. Cain has never hit more than 11 homers in any minor league season, but that’s still significantly more power than Revere. Joe Benson might be a comparable in a year if he continues to progress. In fact, Benson has much more upside than Cain does, but he’s just not there yet. Jeffress throws hard, so the only comparable Twins minor leaguer would be Carlos Gutierrez who got into two games for Rochester last year, so he’s about a year behind Jeffress. Gutierrez may not have quite Jeffress’s upside, but he is a lot less risky. Odorizzi is the Brewers top pitching prospect. Kyle Gibson is the top Twins prospect. Gibson is better than any of the prospects that the Royals got, and he was a college draft pick so he should be more advanced. The best comparable to Odorizzi that I can think of would probably be Adrian Salcedo.

So, there really isn’t a good comparable trade, but maybe something like Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, Carlos Gutierrez and Tsuyoshi Nishioka would be on par with the deal? Even if you replace Gibson with Salcedo, the package would be a lot to give up for a guy who had a great 2009 and a mediocre 2010.

Ricky Nolasco Signs Extension with Marlins

Another pitcher whose name Twins fans have throw out as thinking the Twins should acquire is Ricky Nolasco of the Florida Marlins. Last night, he signed a three year, $26.5 million deal with the Marlins, so most likely he would not be available.

What Happens with Carl Pavano?

So where does all this leave Carl Pavano? Does it make the Twins more likely to be his final destination? With Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies, Nolasco re-upping with the Marlins and Greinke being traded to the Brewers, Pavano remains the most sought-after free agent starting pitcher. The Brewers were one of the teams said to be very much in on discussions to sign him, but with additions of Marcum and Greinke, it’s hard to believe that they would be interested any more. The Tigers have shown interest, but not at more than one year. The Nationals apparently are sticking to a one year offer. The Rangers were said to be considering Pavano as a backup plan to Cliff Lee, but to this point there are no indications that they are showing the interest. Yesterday, a rumor came out that the Pirates might have some interest.

The general overriding theme is that it appears more and more with each transaction that it is becoming more and more likely that Pavano will return to the Twins. IF there are not other teams that are even offering two years, the Twins should feel good about offering two years, and even throwing in an option for 2013. Completely guessing, I would think that Pavano would want a deal done before the holidays which means in the first half of this week. Of course, the ongoing attempts by the Rays to rid themselves of Matt Garza could play into that as well. 

Blog Spotting

It’s always good to be able to give a little credit and recognition to many other Twins blogs or bloggers that work hard to provide content as well. So, check these out and if it is something you enjoy, be sure to bookmark some of these sites too.

Please feel free to Comment in the Comment section.

Twins Trade Jose Morales for Paul Bargas

16 Dec

The Twins today traded backup catcher/1B/DH/PH Jose Morales today to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for 22 year old left-handed pitcher Paul Bargas.

Morales has had an eventful career since the Twins drafted him as a 2B in 2001, two rounds after taking Joe Mauer. He always put up solid offensive numbers, but he was just hurt so often.  He played one game for the Twins in 2007, went 3-3 with a double, but he hurt himself sliding into 2B and was done for the year. He would spend parts of 2008-2010 with the Twins. In 2009, he was frequently the Twins DH. He is a decent catcher with a poor arm. But he is fairly athletic for a catcher. He should play more with the Rockies.

Obviously this is a big thing for Drew Butera in that it appears he will remain the Twins backup catcher. Morales was options in 2008, 2009 and 2010, so he would not have been able to go to Rochester again in 2011.

Bargas was the Rockies 13th round pick in 2009 out of UC-Riverside. He pitched in 58 games out of the bullpen in 2010 for Asheville, the team’s Class A affiliate in the Sally League. He went 5-4 with 5 saves and a 3.59 ERA. In 67 innings, he walked 19 and struck out 65.

Twins Sign Nishioka for Three Years

16 Dec

This afternoon, SI’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the Twins had signed infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a three year, $10.5 million contract. It was the day after Thanksgiving when it was announced that the Twins had won exclusive rights to negotiate with Nishioka. Now that he has signed, Chiba Lotte will receive the $5+ million posting fee.

Once MLB Trade Rumors posted a tweet that the deal was done, former big leaguers CJ Nitkowski, who spent a spring training with the Twins and has pitched in Japan in recent years, tweeted the following:

CJNitkowski – AAA & AAAA middle infielders are wishing they were Japanese imports tonight RT @mlbtraderumors: Twins, Nishioka Agree To 3/$10M Deal.”

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Nishioka, I would say. But Twins officials and scouts are happy to have him in the fold. He will likely start the season as the Twins second baseman.

Nishioka had flown from Japan to Minneapolis and arrived late this morning. It was clear that the signing would likely take place quickly since he was coming to town. Likely the sides had agreed in principle on the deal before flight arrangements were made. I guess things like telephones, e-mail, the internet and video conference work pretty well, right?

Crain, Guerrier Leave for Greener Pastures

16 Dec

Please note that I am having technical difficulties at www.SethSpeaks.net and have not been able to post there the last few days. Hopefully the situation can be resolved quickly.

I was driving in my car yesterday when I heard the news that Matt Guerrier was going to the Dodgers, with a 3 year, $12 million contract in his back pocket. Although I thought he was the one 2010 Twins reliever that could come back, I was thrilled for the guy. He has pitched in at least 72 games each of the last four years. Yes, he has had a couple of hiccups, but considering 1.) how often he pitched and 2.) how many big situations he came into, he did a great job for the Twins. Really, he has done well in whatever role the Twins have asked. When they acquired him, and he was out of options, he was in long relief, and a spot starter, and he pitched well in that role. By 2006, he and Pat Neshek were both getting 8th inning duties. There is a reason Gardy went to him so often. He got the job done. And he was remarkably durable. Frankly, relievers don’t pitch well and stay healthy for the length of time that Guerrier has.

So, I am happy for Guerrier, that he got a lot of offers, and in the end, got a very nice contract. He absolutely deserved it. I think that the Twins were smart not to go to those years or those dollars with him. But nevertheless, Guerrier will be missed.

I had just come in from cleaning my garage last night when I read a couple of tweets on my phone about Jesse Crain. I got to my computer and in those two minutes, it became official. Jesse Crain was signing a three year contract to pitch for the hated White Sox. Wow! I was in awe for quite some time. I was frustrated. The Twins lost their best relief pitcher… to the White Sox! How does that happen? I knew he wasn’t coming back to the Twins. But we had heard that the Rockies and Blue Jays were interested in him. We had heard that the Diamondbacks might be interested. But the White Sox?

Ozzie Guillen loves Jesse Crain, even though it was Crain that essentially ended the White Sox dream of coming back and beating the Twins in the AL Central last year. Twins fans won’t soon forget when Crain came in with runners on and a one-run lead. He struck out Paul Konerko and Manny Ramirez, and that was that.

Some Twins fans choose to remember the “Crain-Wreck” monicker, one I never understood. I’ve always been a big Crain backer because of how good he was early in his career, and how decent he was the year after shoulder surgery. But 2009 was really bad. There is no questioning that. He was sent to the minors, but then he came back in September and didn’t allow a run the entire month. In 2010, he had three or four bad games in early May, and Twins fans gave up on him. In fact, in mid-May, in podcasts, I was finally giving in as well and saying it was just time for a change of scenery. However, I also noted that if they release him, the Brewers might pick him up. They needed a closer, and the Twins had to play the Crew six times. There was never any questioning of Crain’s stuff. I liked to reference the 96 mph fastball, with an 89 mph slider and a 76 mph curveball. The stuff was always there.

And then came May 20th. From then on, he was the best relief pitcher in baseball (except maybe the inexplicable Joaquin Benoit). He started pitching backwards. He would lead with the slow curveball, or the slider, and he would keep going to it. That only made the 96 mph fastball look faster. He made hitters look silly the rest of the year. Sure, negative Twins fans will point out the one bad pitch he did make, in a fairly important 10-pitch at bat against Mark Teixeira in Game 1 of the ALDS that Tex drilled into the right field bleachers. That’s fair. He hung one. But the ridiculous comments I hear and read about how he just teases you and then when it matters, he lets you down. Well, again, disappointing as the Teixeira home run was, I would take my chances with Jesse Crain any day of the week, against anyone.

We found out now that he signed a three year deal worth about $13 million with the White Sox. Good money, and yet less than I thought he might  get. Of course, in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, I said they should sign him to a three year, $12 million deal.

Now, again, I was not advocating the Twins should overpay for Crain, and I was resigned to the fact that he was not coming back to the Twins. My frustration was that he went to the White Sox. The White Sox now have a bullpen, even after non-tendering Bobby Jenks, that includes Crain, Matt Thornton, Chris Sale and Sergio Santos. That in addition to their normally-strong starting rotation and their newly improved lineup. Kenny Williams and the White Sox have had a tremendous offseason.

Meanwhile the Twins have lost their two best relief pitchers, won’t bring back Brian Fuentes and probably Jon Rauch, traded their starting shortstop and signed a whole bunch of 27-31 year old minor league veterans who will fill the New Britain and Rochester rosters.

Yes, I am feeling that it is likely that the Twins will bring back Carl Pavano and Jim Thome. That’s fine. They’re both solid. I think Pavano has another decent year in him, but if he gets a three year deal, that’s scary. Should Jim Thome get a two year deal? What additional trades will happen if those two come back? Will they deal Kevin Slowey? Would they trade Jason Kubel? I like Pavano and Thome and both were awesome in 2010.

Sign Jose Veras, as Jesse Crain light. Sign Hideki Okajima as a left-handed reliever and assistant for Tsuyoshi Nishioka? Give me something to be excited about. I was talking with a good friend and a big Twins fan last night who said that after the excitement of last offseason (When admittedly a few big moves happened in late January!), the payroll, Target Field, and the excitement for another step forward in 2011, he is apathetic toward the Twins right now. I couldn’t counter. It’s hard to disagree. I would NEVER advocate making a move just to make a move. But there are still players out there who can make this team better.

I know this is coming across as negative. It should. But there are still reasons to be positive. The White Sox are clearly now the favorites in the AL Central. No question about that. But the Twins have seemed to have their number in recent years, at home and at US Cellular. The Twins have Joe Mauer. The Twins are hoping for a full season from Justin Morneau. Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span should all improve upon their 2010 seasons. Can Delmon Young take another step forward? Can Francisco Liriano take another step forward so that no one questions if he is an ace or not. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have to step up. Can Brian Duensing be this good? And can we really expect Joe Nathan to be back at 100% early in the season?

There is no reason to think that the Twins won’t again be very good in 2011. This is a very good team. I’m always the first to say that there are still two months before pitchers and catchers report. But now I’m just starting to wonder, “What is the plan?” What’s the plan? Because I really can’t see one. I know, it’s not my job to know everything. I don’t need to. Do we just trust the Twins front office, that they have a plan and they are going to make moves to improve a team? I guess we don’t really have a choice, do we?

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