also available at www.SethSpeaks.net –
We hear so often that the Twins minor league system is bad, that there are not players ready to come up to the big leagues and contribute to the team. I think most Twins fans understand that the Twins have done a lot in the last two or three years to really improve the overall value and talent level of the minor league system. However, most of that high-end talent is in High-A Ft. Myers or lower levels. Names like Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano will pop up in Top Prospect lists very soon. But the Twins also have some very good talent in the upper levels as well.
I am often asked if there are any players in the Twins minor league system that can come up and contribute in 2012. The answer is absolutely Yes, but there are several angles to answering that question.
ALREADY THERE
In 2010, the Twins came into the season with a very veteran lineup. Not one rookie was in the everyday lineup to start the season. Alex Burnett was a surprise in the Opening Day bullpen despite zero innings pitched above Double-A. Danny Valencia came up in June and became a regular in July. Because he was the only rookie playing, there was little pressure on him and he went out and contributed mightily for the Twins down the stretch. In 2011, because of all of the injuries, Valencia has frequently been joined in the starting lineup for three or four players with less than a year of big league service time. That puts a lot of pressure on everyone in the lineup to do more than what they may be ready for. That isn’t good for the team and we have seen those struggles. Consider the current Twins roster. Here are the players with less than two years of big league service time: Valencia, Burnett, Drew Butera, Ben Revere, Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Rene Tosoni, Anthony Swarzak and now Lester Oliveros. We have seen already that Valencia can put up some numbers, including some power. We have seen the value of Ben Revere’s speed on the base paths and in the field. Trevor Plouffe has struggled with the glove, but he leads the organization in home runs this season. Luke Hughes was the story of spring training and has contributed a couple of home runs while playing 1B and 2B. Tosoni has shown patience at the plate and good power potential. Swarzak has been very important as the Twins long reliever and spot starter. Butera’s defense has proven to be as good as advertised. Burnett has shown signs of how good he can be out of the Twins bullpen. And, at this point, we don’t know anything about Lester Oliveros, other than that he throws hard, walks and strikes out a lot and is still just 23 years old. Again, that is a lot of players expected to contribute despite such little time. They have certainly struggled at times this year. However, most of these players have also shown that they can contribute to the Twins over the coming years. Valencia, Plouffe, Swarzak and Tosoni are guys who have been Top 10 Twins prospects and have the talent to contribute for years to come.
RETREADS AT ROCHESTER
The Twins went out of their way to appease the Rochester masses and brought in a ton of minor league veterans. After losing 95 games in 2010, the Twins wanted to give Rochester a more competitive team. It didn’t work. The Red Wings are currently 48-82 this season. Sure, guys like Phil Dumatrait and Chuck James have pitched for the Twins, but those veterans were not really brought in to help the Twins. They were brought in to help the Red Wings. Guys like Jeff Bailey and Chase Lambin really struggled early in the season. However, the real purpose in bringing in the veterans was so that the real prospects who were not ready for AAA were able to stay in New Britain and develop appropriately. The best players of the Red Wings were the prospects. Unfortunately for the Red Wings, all those injuries meant that the Red Wings carousel was continuous again throughout the season. The Twins again called to Rochester frequently, taking the pitchers and top hitters from the Red Wings. Plouffe was one of the International League’s best hitters. Revere, Hughes, and Tosoni were also all in the opening day lineup for the Red Wings.
There are prospects in Rochester, but at this point, there are question marks with them.
- Scott Diamond – His best start of the season may have been his Major League debut when he went 6.1 innings and gave up three runs. It has been a real struggle for the lefty with the Red Wings. The 25-year-old has gone 4-14 with a 5.88 ERA. It will be very interesting to see how he responds with the team in 2012 because coming into the season, he had never posted an ERA above 3.52 at any stop along his trek up the Braves minor league system. That includes a 3.30 ERA in ten 2010 starts with Gwinnett, Atlanta’s AAA affiliate in the International League.
- Kyle Gibson – He came into the season as the Twins top prospect and rightfully so. The Twins top pick in 2009 made his minor league debut in 2010 and advanced from Ft. Myers to Rochester. He began the 2011 season with the Red Wings and went 3-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in the season’s first two months. He walked very few, got a ton of ground balls and even struck out a batter an inning. He was definitely on pace to debut with the Twins in 2011. Unfortunately, in his final eight starts, he went 0-5 with a 6.47 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. Clearly something wasn’t right, and he is currently in Florida rehabbing an elbow injury, hoping to avoid Tommy John surgery that would cost him his 2012 season. However, this does not make him a lesser prospect. It will just be 2013 before he is able to contribute to the Twins.
- Carlos Gutierrez – The Twins second first-round pick in 2008 has been a starting pitcher to start each of his previous seasons in the minors. This season he finally went full-time into the bullpen. He has had his ups and downs with the Red Wings. His overall numbers are not impressive. He is 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He almost made the Twins roster out of spring training. Control continues to be his problem at times. However, he also missed most of July with an arm injury and has struggled since his return. But again, in terms of ‘stuff,’ Gutierrez definitely has it. He throws hard and gets a lot of ground balls due to his sinker. He will play a role with the Twins at some point in 2012.
- Liam Hendriks – The Twins pushed Hendriks to AA New Britain to start the 2011 season and he pitched great. The Australian went 8-2 with a 2.70 ERA. Because of the need for pitching in Rochester, he was promoted after pitching in the Futures Game and in the Eastern League All-Star Game. He began his AAA tenure with three very good starts before two clunkers. His last two starts have again been solid. The 22-year-old has walked 21 and struck out 100 batters in 125.1 innings this year overall. Hendriks needs to be added to the 40 man roster following the season, so it is possible that he could get a September call-up.
- Kyle Waldrop – Another reliever who impressed in Spring Training (For the second straight year), Waldrop struggled in the first half this season. However, since the All-Star break, he has been wonderful. His big sinker ball has been in full effect for the last month and he should be given a September opportunity. If so, he will be another important possibility in the Twins bullpen in 2012.
PLAYOFFS FOR PROSPECTS
The New Britain Rock Cats are 64-64 this season, but they remain in contention for a spot in the Eastern League playoffs. Since the Twins and Red Wings (and Ft. Myers Miracle) are out of contention for the playoffs, there are some terrific prospects who are staying with the Rock Cats in an attempt to make the playoffs. Many believe that being on a winning team, and playing for the team, is an important part of the development process. I would say that it can’t hurt. But the Rock Cats also have several players who could contribute to the Twins in 2012. A couple could be in contention for an opening day spot while each of them could be seen at some point in the 2012 season. Here is a look at the top prospects:
- Joe Benson – The Twins Minor League Hitter of 2010, Benson has been a much better all-around player in 2011. He is hitting .284/.379.499 with 26 doubles, three triples and 14 home runs. He also has 13 stolen bases. All that, despite missing five weeks after knee surgery. Benson is an incredible athlete with tremendous power who is also probably the second fastest player in the organization after Ben Revere. Benson is also a terrific outfielder with great range and a rocket for an arm. His biggest area for needed improvement was his strikeout rate. In 2010, he struck out every 3.5 plate appearances. This year, that number is about four. Depending upon which outfielders the Twins bring back next year, Benson could play a very big role for the Twins starting in 2012.
- Chris Parmelee – Benson was the team’s second round pick in 2006. Parmelee was the team’s first round pick, and he backed up a very good 2010 with an even stronger 2011. The left-handed hitting first baseman is hitting .291.371/.451 with 27 doubles, five triples and 13 home runs. He does struggle against left-handed pitching. He has more power potential. It isn’t fair to expect him to be Justin Morneau offensively or defensively, but he can be a very solid big leaguer at 1B, maybe in the Lyle Overbay mold. He has a terrific approach at the plate, and if the Twins have a need at 1B in 2012, Parmelee will be ready to step in. He could also DH against right-handed pitching. He also can play a little bit of right field if needed.
- Brian Dozier – I would argue that no Twins minor leaguer has made a stronger impression in 2011 than Brian Dozier. The Twins surprised a lot of people when they invited Dozier to big league camp this spring. But he has come through with a tremendous season. It began in Ft. Myers and hit .322/.423/.472 in 49 games. In 64 games with the Rock Cats, he has hit .317/.384/.500. Overall, he has 30 doubles, 11 triples and seven home runs. He also has 24 stolen bases. As a top of the order hitter, he has 50 walks and 60 strikeouts. He profiles as a good #2 hitter. Twins minor league pitchers love when Dozier is playing shortstop behind them. With the struggles of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the 24 year old Dozier should go to spring training with a legitimate opportunity to be the Twins starting shortstop.
- Yangervis Solarte – Solarte broke out in 2010 when he hit at Ft. Myers and got an opportunity with New Britain, but he got hurt and missed a couple of months. He began this season with the Rock Cats and he has hit the entire time. He hit .300 or higher in April, May, June and July. Overall, he has hit .320/.361/.441 with 30 doubles, three triples and four home runs. He doesn’t walk a lot, but he also strikes out only about once every 13 plate appearances. The only question with Solarte is if there is a position that he can play adequately. That will be the thing that will determine how big his future role with the Twins will be. The 24 year old has played primarily at second base and can also play both corner outfield positions, but not really well.
- Deolis Guerra – This may be a surprise name to many, especially if you look at his overall numbers in 2011, but Guerra has been terrific. Overall, he is 7-7 with a 5.83 ERA on the season. He began the year with ten starts. He went 3-5 with a 9.00 ERA. In 43 innings, he gave up 66 hits, walked 15 and struck out 30. Opponents hit .357. Then he was moved to the bullpen, and he has been great since. In 24 relief appearances,e he is 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA. In 45 innings, he has given up 33 hits, walked 11 and struck out 55. Opponents have hit just .198 against him. The still-just-22 year old right-hander has a good fastball and a great changeup. It’s remarkable how the role change has improved his control, but his strikeout rate is very improved. He still has an option year in 2012, so hopefully he continues to make improvements and plays a role with the Twins as early as mid-2012.
- David Bromberg – Twins fans should not forget Bromberg. He was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster after last season. He has consistently moved up the Twins farm system, three times leading his league in strikeouts. He began this season in New Britain, but in late April, he was hit in the forearm by a line drive and he missed three months of the season. He returned recently, but probably too quickly. It’s important to note that his injury was not to his elbow or shoulder, it was a fluke injury. In other words, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t regain his form which means he will compete for a job with the Twins in 2012.
There are others on that Rock Cats roster who could find themselves with the Twins in time. Evan Bigley is an outfielder in the Chad Allen mode. Danny Lehmann is the most respected catcher by pitchers in the Twins minor leagues. His defense is on par with Drew Butera’s, with probably a little better offense. Andrew Albers has had a tremendous season with the Miracle and the Rock Cats. The lefty could continue to work his way up. Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh are two pitchers who can throw into the upper-90s and are potential bullpen arms. Brett Jacobson has had an up and down season, but he has a chance. Bobby Lanigan has struggled some as a starter, but he profiles well as a future reliever because of a good fastball and a very good slider. Steve Hirschfeld was my choice for Twins minor league pitcher of the month in April and May. Finally, lefty Logan Darnell began the season in Beloit and is now with the Rock Cats.
ONE MORE
Although it is a rarity for a player to jump from Ft. Myers to the big leagues in one season, I would encourage people to keep an eye on Oswaldo Arcia. The 20-year-old outfielder was the Appalachian League Player of the Year last year for Elizabethton. He spent a month at Beloit this year, posting an OPS over 1.000. He then missed six weeks due to arthroscopic elbow surgery. Instead of going back to Beloit, Arcia went to Ft. Myers where he has continued to hit well. I believe his bat is legit. I posted on Twitter a couple of days ago that I think Arcia may be the best hitting prospect that the Twins have had since Jason Kubel in 2005. He seems to be a natural hitter. It might be a little aggressive to consider Arcia as a possibility for the Twins in 2012, but if there is a hitting prospect for Twins fans to really get excited about, it is Arcia.
SethSpeaks.net 
Thanks for the thorough update on minor league guys. I always enjoy reading your stuff and learning more about the future Twins!
I loved reading this. Thanks.
Note on your note: Reformatting worked!
Great interview with Tim Shibuya last week. Thank you.
Mike
Interesting that the formatting worked as I have heard from a couple of others that it still wasn’t working.
And thank you, Shibuya was tremendous. Great kid, and he’s pitching well too for the E-Twins!
Seth, it certainly appears there are a number of guys who may prove to be capable Major Leaguers. But you don’t win championships with capable Major Leaguers. You need some stars… some studs… guys who can carry a team with their arms or their bats. Sano has that potential, I think. Arcia or Benson? Maybe… I’m just not convinced, yet. In any event, it’s a stretch to see those guys leading the Twins any time soon.
There may be guys on this list capable of plugging a hole here or there, but this team seems to need more than that. They need star-level talent and I just don’t see a ton of that kind of potential in the system.
Shouldn’t (theoretically) Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel and hopefully someone stepping up in the pitching staff be the stars for the next couple of years while maybe Benson or maybe Arcia, or eventually Sano, and maybe Salcedo, develop, improve and gain that status?
By the way, thanks for the interesting (and thought-provoking) mention over at Knuckleballs blog today! http://knuckleballsblog.com/2011/08/much-ado-about-nothing/
theoretically, perhaps. But I don’t see anyone on the current pitching staff capable of stepping up and two of the hitters you mentioned, Kubel and Cuddyer, may not even be on the roster next year.
I wish I felt more optimistic about Mauer and Morneau, but given their health and performance the past 18 months, it’s tough to feel that way.
Pugh has been a disapointment this year. Thought he could be better but he got Rocked at AA.
Seth who do you expect at Arizona this year? In my mind Dozier is a lock, anyone else?
“who do you expect at Arizona this year? In my mind Dozier is a lock, anyone else?”
I agree that Dozier should be a lock… I think if Wimmers finishes well, he makes sense. I think Bromberg makes sense to get innings. I think Benson could make some sense, especially if he’s not with the Twins in September. he was there two years ago, but played less than half the time. After that,it’s kind of a guess. Twins don’t only send top prospects there, so you never know, probably a reliever, maybe a Danny Lehmann since the teams need catchers.
Thanks for the great update. Now, after reading this, I think it is more realistic that these guys will contribute in 2013, rather than in 2012. It is not the end of the world, a little more patience…
I agree. In terms of really contributing, most of these guys may show up in 2012, but it may take a little longer to hit/fill potential. My assumption is that the Twins will complement them with Mauer/Morneau and a couple of free agents. It woudln’t be good to again have a situation where more than a couple of guys come up at a time.
Hendriks pitched last night and only went 2.2 innings – do you know why? It didn’t look like he was getting hit all that badly.
He actually started on Sunday, but the game was suspended due to rain… when they started up again on Monday, Jake Stevens took the mound.
I should have known that. Thanks for the tactful answer.
Like everyone else, I much appreciate this blog–thanks Seth. I suppose it’s worth asking: if the Twins are about to undergo a fairly substantial youth movement to complement Mauer and Morneau, is there any possibility that we’ll have to deal with trade demands from veterans who don’t want to wait until 2013 or later? (Span, Baker, the M&M boys themselves?)
I assume a combination of contracts/fondness for the Twin Cities/tremendously low value on the trade market might keep some guys around…but is there any sense that we may start an Oakland-esque revolving door roster?
I don’t think there will be a youth movement. There was no planned youth movement this year, but injuries created a situation where a lot of young guys had to play a lot .I don’t think all of these guys will be up next year. I think they could be. A couple may force their way up, and that’s a good thing. But the Twins aren’t going to go with a full youth movement.
Any chance Guerra can translate his bullpen success back to the rotation? Or is he a guy who tried and failed to develop a breaking pitch (and got rocked in the process?)
Also, do you see Boer and/or Wimmers as guys who could have an impact sometime next year?
I’m really liking Dozier. With the way the season has gone, I’d love to see him, Benson, Parmalee, and Solarte all get September call-ups.
“Any chance Guerra can translate his bullpen success back to the rotation?”
I guess, but I wouldn’t mess with it. Failed starters are typically your best relievers, so why not let him see?
“do you see Boer and/or Wimmers as guys who could have an impact sometime next year?”
No. Wimmers has an outside shot, especially if he finishes strong and goes to the AFL and starts next season in New Britain. Boer will be tried as a starter, and that will slow his development time to the big leagues… but obviously starters are much more valuable than relievers, so it could be a good thing.
Excellent post, Seth. The consistency of play from the NB guys is what I really like, and maybe that was something to be built by staying in New Britain, but man . . . isn’t it a problem if your AAA club can make such demands and perhaps slow down prospects? Is Rochester going to only begrudgingly take on Benson, Parmelee, Solarte, and Dozier next year?
I guess I had thought that the stacking of AAA with some AAAA-type players was so the Twins could call *them* up when help was needed, but outside of Rivera/Holm, that didn’t happen (Bailey, Lambin, and especially Bates).
Also, wouldn’t it be reasonable to basically replace Jason Repko with Dustin Martin? The Twins cannot be serious about keeping Repko around next year, right?
“Also, wouldn’t it be reasonable to basically replace Jason Repko with Dustin Martin?”
It is, if Repko costs more than the $600,000 he cost this year. But Repko is a thousand times better defensively at all three positions, has a much better arm, bats right-handed, is a similar (if not a little better) AAA hitter than Martin.
Just digging in a bit deeper on the Parmelee/Overbay comp…
Parmelee’s slash line this year of .291/.371/.451 isn’t a whole lot different than Overbay’s major league career line of .270/.354/.439. That obviously includes Overbay’s peak years, but it also includes his recent decline years.
However, here are Overbay’s minor league numbers coming up through the Diamondbacks’ system:
1999 Age 22 Rookie Ball .343/.418/.588, 1 strikeout/6.64 plate appearances
2000 Age 23 A .332/.397/.498, 1 K/8.06 PA
2000 Age 23 AA .352/.420/.533, 1 K/7.08 PA (62 games)
2001 Age 24 AA .352/.423/.528, 1 K/6.65 PA
2002 Age 25 AAA .343/.396/.528, 1 K/6.73 PA
2003 Age 26 AAA .286/.419/.479, 1 K/7.79 PA (35 games)
Those are some impressive batting averages and solid K numbers, but you also notice the limited power for a first baseman which has always been one of Overbay’s biggest downfalls and probably the reason why Seth picked Overbay as a comp in the first place.
Parmelee should move up to AAA next year at age 24 which puts him a year ahead of Overbay in development time. If you assume Parmelee’s 2011 AA numbers are near his true ability level, then his 1K/6.58 PA and slightly better ISO discipline compare pretty nicely to Overbay’s minor league numbers. Parmelee’s 2011 ISO power is slightly less but still pretty close to Overbay’s.
To make a long story short, it looks like Parmelee’s success will be dependent on whether or not he can hit near .300 year in and year out, so the Overbay upside comp is a pretty perfect one. No, Parmelee has never hit .300 in the minors, so projecting him to do so in the majors may be questionable. If you look at his numbers each season, though, he has been able to increase his batting average. Not only is his batting average at .291 this season, he has also increased his power this year compared to last year.
Maybe next year Parmelee moves up to AAA and hits .300 with another uptick in power. That sounds fairly Overbay-esque. You never know…
Great stuff… I guess my only comment would be that Overbay’s AAA numbers came in the Pacific Coast League… I know there is a pretty big difference in numbers from the PCL to the International League. I don’t know how that would play out for Parmelee or others, just an added thought really.
It would be cool if you added context to your summaries. Maybe use the scale that the Twins’ scouts use or compare prospects to Twins players when they were at the same level (like the Kubel/Arcia comp or Span/Revere). Reading about prospects is always exciting, but it’s hard to get any kind of perspective on guys you’ve never seen play, and who play at different levels in the minor leagues.
I too am excited by the “hitting” prospects in the lower minors. But they are years away from helping the Twins. And I only see serviceable pitching in the lower levels. No Ivan Nova’s down there. I don’t see a whole lot to get excited about in the upper minors or the ones that have been up to the bigs this year. I see Hughes as a journeyman type who might get 3 or 4 years in the bigs and then be a veteran AAA prescensce for some other organization. Tosoni doesn’t excite me at all. His minor league numbers are not that impressive. I just don’t think you can live on potential. I don’t see above average in his stats. I see at best a .260 hitter in a platoon role. I like Ben Revere’s potential, but his arm is being exposed everynight. Plouffe will be serviceable, but will never develop into a Cuddyer in my eyes. Gibson getting hurt is a big setback. After him, there is just no one that I see that can come up and be a 1, 2 or 3 guy in a major league rotation. Hopefully Hendriks can prove me wrong. I am not sold on Guttierez or Guerra. All hype, no numbers for those two. And I disagree on Chuck James. I think he can be a serviceable bullpen guy or maybe even a back end rotation guy. I remember a guy by the name of Geoff Zahn who had injuries with the Dodgers. We picked him up and in year two he was pretty darned good. Don’t give up on Chuck James just yet. I am most excited by Brian Dozier at AA. Progressively better numbers. Pretty good defense. I think of all of the guys we are talking about he has the best chance at being a starter next year and actually contributing. Benson and Parmelee have got a shot. But will Parmalee be another Matt Moses or Brian Buscher? Or will he make the next step, say like Garrett Jones did with Pittsburgh. Benson will be given every opportunity, especially if Cuddyer and Kubel leave. I just think at this point he would be overmatched. There is just not enough in this group to help the Twins next year. Unless…… Mauer and Morneau stay healthy and return to their glory years type production. You resign Cuddyer and/or Kubel. And Baker and Liriano would suddenly become 1 or 2 type rotation guys. Pavano would have to pitch like he did last year. Blackburn and Duensing would have to be removed from the rotation. And a Hendriks, a free agent, James or Swarzak to fill out the rotation. Alot of ifs would have to all come together to make the Twins competitive again next year. I just don’t see it happening.
Great post again Seth. The biggest problem that we have, by far, and it is not even close, is we are trusting Bill Smith to build this team again. After the major disasters this year with all the young guys, I would bet anything that Gardenhire is going to “convince” Mr. Smith that he needs veterans to win and no more rookies.
As for the rookies, the reality is that there isn’t anyone on the list that is really a top prospect. We have a few guys that “could be” good in the future, but the cupboard is still bare.
Great post. Thank you
Seth,
You remind me a little of the way the front office thinks and operates. Which is…overvalueing what you currently have, and/or missing completely in terms of overall player evaluation.
There is hardly a guy on that entire minor league list, other than a couple way down in the lower ranks, that translates to anything more than a below average major leaguer. That includes Ben Revere…..who looks more like a #9 hitter or fourth outfielder. Plouffe has had one quality season in the minors, and a handful of average seasons. Now that he is no longer an SS prospect, those numbers look even worse.
There’s some hope for Benson, Parmalee and Dozier….but all are complete unknowns at this point.
Pitching? What Pitching??
what about Gibson?? Hendriks?? Hendriks has a career ERA in the 2’s and gibson was playing injured when he started to give up runs… i would say those 2 are pretty solid prospects to come up and through the big leagues and be more than below average pitchers. Hopefully Gibson wont require surgery and we might be able to get a bit of a glimpse of Hendriks in September