also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -
Our good friends over at Twinkie Town have spent the past couple of months working on their community Top 50 Twins Prospect list. Each day, those who went to their site were able to cast their vote for a player. The player with the most votes gets the spot, and the next day they would vote for the next spot. They started at #1 and worked all the way to #50 and the best part was community discussion each round.
I thought it would be fun to compare and contrast my Top 50 Twins Prospect list to the Twinkie Town list. The top five on each list are the exact same, but after that, there are some significant differences, and by the time it reaches the end of the list, there are several names that don’t appear on both lists. So, as pitchers and catchers are set to report to Ft. Myers on Saturday and SethSpeaks.net is winding down, discuss these lists and feel free to post your own rankings.
|
Rank |
SethSpeaks Top 50 | Twinkie Town Top 50 |
|
1 |
Miguel Sano | Miguel Sano |
|
2 |
Eddie Rosario | Eddie Rosario |
|
3 |
Oswaldo Arcia | Oswaldo Arcia |
|
4 |
Aaron Hicks | Aaron Hicks |
|
5 |
Joe Benson | Joe Benson |
|
6 |
Liam Hendriks | Kyle Gibson |
|
7 |
Kyle Gibson | Chris Parmelee |
|
8 |
Adrian Salcedo | Liam Hendriks |
|
9 |
Alex Wimmers | Brian Dozier |
|
10 |
Chris Parmelee | Chris Herrmann |
|
11 |
Brian Dozier | Max Kepler |
|
12 |
Travis Harrison | Levi Michael |
|
13 |
Tom Stuifbergen | Adrian Salcedo |
|
14 |
Angel Morales | Alex Wimmers |
|
15 |
Chris Herrmann | Angel Morales |
|
16 |
Manuel Soliman | Carlos Gutierrez |
|
17 |
Levi Michael | Tom Stuifbergen |
|
18 |
Max Kepler | Travis Harrison |
|
19 |
Niko Goodrum | Niko Goodrum |
|
20 |
Hudson Boyd | Hudson Boyd |
|
21 |
BJ Hermsen | Logan Darnell |
|
22 |
Danny Santana | Madison Boer |
|
23 |
Madison Boer | Manuel Soliman |
|
24 |
Terry Doyle | David Bromberg |
|
25 |
Logan Darnell | BJ Hermsen |
|
26 |
David Bromberg | Lester Oliveros |
|
27 |
JD Williams | Matt Hauser |
|
28 |
Matt Hauser | Deolis Guerra |
|
29 |
Jairo Perez | Tyler Robertson |
|
30 |
Pat Dean | Scott Diamond |
|
31 |
Matt Summers | Terry Doyle |
|
32 |
Danny Rams | Nate Roberts |
|
33 |
Scott Diamond | Matt Summers |
|
34 |
Angel Mata | Cole DeVries |
|
35 |
Corey Williams | Corey Williams |
|
36 |
Danny Ortiz | Matt Bashore |
|
37 |
Carlos Gutierrez | JD Williams |
|
38 |
Nate Roberts | Danny Rams |
|
39 |
Lance Ray | Pat Dean |
|
40 |
Deolis Guerra | Andrew Albers |
|
41 |
Michael Gonzales | Dakota Watts |
|
42 |
Lester Oliveros | Tim Shibuya |
|
43 |
Ryan O’Rourke | Lance Ray |
|
44 |
Hung-yi Chen | Evan Bigley |
|
45 |
James Beresford | James Beresford |
|
46 |
Bobby Lanigan | Tony Davis |
|
47 |
Tyler Grimes | Danny Lehmann |
|
48 |
Anderson Hidalgo | Jorge Polanco |
|
49 |
Tim Shibuya | Angel Mata |
|
50 |
Luis Nunez | Jairo Perez |
Any thoughts? Please feel free to e-mail me or use the Comments Section!
When I look at these lists I remember there are less than 10 players in the minor leagues at any one time who will become major league regulars as starters or significant bullpen guys. Ten years ago, Baseball America’s top ten had four players who later were regulars. Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Rincon. The only other two in the system who have had significant roles in their major league careers were Kubel and Balfour. There were half dozen others who managed to hang on at the major league level for a few years as role players. The rest either never reached the major leagues or couldn’t stick when they did.
I know there is no set criteria for ranking prospects. But I think there is tendency to forget that the distribution of prospects has a very small number at the top with a considerable dropoff. The difference between the top two and the 10th guy is probably bigger than the difference between 10 and 50.
The only players here I think might have a better than 50-50 chance of making it as regulars are Sano and Hicks. The further down the list you go, the more important being close to ready is. I think guys like Oliveros, Gutierrez and Guerra who are in big league camp and have the arms to be top setup guys are a lot more likely to contribute than a lot of the players in those top tens.
That would be the nature of prospect lists and prospect rankings. If 3-4 of these guys become significant big league players, that would be great! I’m not sure if that is what TT is trying to say here or what? That’s the same for every organization in baseball.
Seth,
My point is that after the top few (10?) players, a random list of all the players in the Twins system is almost as likely to have a guy help in the big leagues as the rest of the top 50. Jason Kubel probably would not have been on a top 50 list 10 years ago.
That doesn’t mean making a top 50 list isn’t useful for people following the minor leagues. But if you are talking about the ability of the minor league system to help at the major league level most of these guys are pretty irrelevant whether they are ranked 20 or 50. Any player in big league camp is more likely to provide higher value at the major league level than most of these guys.
#45 James Beresford is the same as well
What do you mean “SethSpeaks.net is winding down”?
Ya, what the heck does that mean? Please don’t stop.
The Twins should have dealt Aaron Hicks while he still had the status of being a top prospect in baseball. I don’t want to call Keith Law the ultimate authority on MLB prospects but when you fall from #10 to #80 it’s kind of a head scratcher to think he will make the Twins top 10 next year. I will paste Keith Law’s comments below for you to read yourself.
“It was quite a fall for Hicks, who didn’t just fail to perform but didn’t look good in not performing, leading many pro scouts to head for the exits. That’s bad news for a kid who was in high Class A at age 21 and really wasn’t that polished or instinctive (I say this in hindsight) coming out of high school. The one thing Hicks could, and still can, do well is work the count and have good at-bats, but the rest of his game has lagged. His tools are still strong — he can run and throw and there’s power there in BP — so it’s hard to see him developing into less than an average everyday player.
Hicks’ main problem is that he doesn’t recognize breaking balls well, despite his strong ball-strike recognition. His right-handed swing is much stronger and more balanced than his left-handed swing, but the Twins feel he’s making enough progress left-handed to continue hitting from both sides of the plate. I still see a potential star here, since Hicks is the same age as most college seniors, but expectations of fast progress based on his patient approach turned out to be way too optimistic.”
Maybe Hicks could have been used as a centerpiece of a blockbuster deal for an actual ACE pitcher. I guess a day late and a dollar short.
“prospects but when you fall from #10 to #80 it’s kind of a head scratcher”
Is the difference between 10th and 80th meaningful? Probably not.
“The Twins should have dealt Aaron Hicks while he still had the status of being a top prospect in baseball.”
Maybe. But there were lots of complaints when they traded Ramos for Capps. There is an illusion that the label “top prospect” will get you a major league star in exchange. But that isn’t going to happen.
What Law seems to be admitting is that he shouldn’t have ranked Hicks as high last year. Of course, what does that say about his current estimate?
We complained about Ramos for Capps because they traded a rare commodity for a mediocre reliever. We didn’t complain because they dealt a prospect. That’s a false choice. Had they traded Ramos for an Ace type, I’d have been good with that. Trading him for the single most over rated commodity in baseball, not so much.