Uggh! Yankees 4, Twins 3

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Hey ya’ll, remember that I’m the positive Twins blogger, right? It’s been awhile since I’ve been as frustrated in a game as last night. If you listen to last night’s podcast, you will get to hear a couple of rants. That doesn’t happen too often. For 8 ½ innings, that was a great baseball game. It stayed a great baseball game, just not for Twins games, starting with the bottom of the 9^th:

Joe Nathan was named the Rolaids Relief Award winner earlier yesterday. The award goes to the top closer in the league based on some formula. Nathan had a team record 47 saves on the season. But is there anyone in Twins nation that had any confidence when Joe Nathan took the mound with a 3-1 lead for the 9^th inning in Yankees Stadium last night with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui coming to the plate? My only confidence was this… I was so sure that Joe Nathan was going to blow the save, that I assumed I must be wrong, that just maybe Nathan would actually step up and get the final three outs without coughing up the lead. That’s right, my only confidence in Nathan was that I had no confidence in him, so maybe just this one time he would come through.

But instead, he started nibbling. Sliders just off the plate. Fastballs just off the plate. Falling behind because the Yankees hitters are disciplined enough not to swing at pitches that aren’t strikes. Here’s an idea for Joe Nathan. Hey, you throw 95-96 mph, try throwing one of those over the plate earlier in the count, not after you’ve nibbled your way into a 2-1 or 3-1 count. See, then they know a fastball is coming, and hitters like Alex Rodriguez… they like those kinds of pitches. Fastballs right down the middle travel a long ways. So really, I get that you’ve got like 14 pitches, and that they work for most of the league. But this isn’t most of the league. It is the Yankees, and this is the playoffs.

But again, it was no surprise to see Joe Nathan blow a save in Yankees Stadium. That’s what he does. The Little Engine That Could (as the media loves to portray the Twins) played a great game. They outplayed the Yankees. The Twins had 12 hits, seven walks and were hit by two pitches in the game. They were not overmatched. People can point to the play where Carlos Gomez ran past second base and was tagged out by Derek Jeter before Delmon Young scored. Not a good play by Gomez, obviously a mistake. But honest, if the Twins had a 4-1 lead going into the bottom of the 9^th, that would only have meant that Nathan would have given up three runs instead of two. Twins fans can play the LF umpire for missing the Mauer should-have-been double in the 11^th, a ball that was clearly fair. But it never should have got there.

The Twins lost. The Twins did not choke. No, one player choked, and he’s been doing that in Yankees Stadium regularly since 2004. Some Twins fans look to Ron Gardenhire and his 5-27 record against the Yankees. Or they mention that the Twins are 0-9 against them this year. Well, that can’t all be put on him. Last night, he made all of the right decisions, including replacing Nathan with Jose Mijares in the 10^th.

It’s really unfortunate that the game turned out like it did because a lot of very good things happened in this game.

• Nick Blackburn was awesome!! He didn’t give up a hit until the fifth and pitched into the sixth. Had it been a normal regular season game, he would have lasted much longer, I’m sure. He got ahead (with this crazy thing called a fastball, even if it only was 89-91 mph!). He threw a lot of strikes. He had good movement on his pitches. He looked in control. Nick Blackburn again pitched big in a big game!
• The bullpen was good. Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay were terrific. Matt Guerrier had an excellent inning of work.
• Nick Punto was on base three times. He drove in a run with a single and walked twice.
• Brendan Harris will likely be the team’s 3B for the near future. He came in for Matt Tolbert at 3B and hit the big triple that gave the Twins as 1-0 lead. He also mad an incredible diving play at 3B, got up and made a good throw to 1B which Michael Cuddyer was able to pick up on the short hope for an out. Tolbert left the game with a strained oblique.
• Michael Cuddyer had three hits. Denard Span and Joe Mauer each had two. Mauer also walked twice. Nick Punto went 1-3 with two walks.

How many times this year did I count the Twins out? I believe at last count, it was 49 times that I said the Twins 2009 season was over, that there was no way that the Twins could make the playoffs. The Twins backs are up against the wall again. This time, instead of playing another AL Central foe, they are taking on the best team in baseball. They are down two games to none in a best of five series. Things certainly look bleak.

And once again, I have to think, logic tells me, that this is over. Even though the Twins are coming home for Game 3. The effects of the Joe Nathan blown save can’t help but linger. That one was hard to swallow for Twins fans.

If you have any questions or comments, click here.

Game 1: Twins 2, Yankees 7

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First of all, I must apologize for no podcast last night. I went to lay down with my three year old shortly after nine o’clock, you know, just for a minute, so she would fall asleep. Well, you already know what happened. Of course, I fell asleep about 9:15. Next thing I knew it was about 11:30, and instead of waking up, I just closed my eyes and slept. So again, there was no new podcast last night, but we will have another podcast tonight where we will take a brief look back at Game 1, and look ahead to Game 2.

Anyway, I will likely write more later, but just some quick thoughts from last night’s 7-2 loss to the Yankees:

·         The Twins jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the 3^rd inning on a Michael Cuddyer single and a passed ball. The Twins definitely came to play early. I don’t think anyone questioned that.

·         I’m certain that the Twins were exhausted. After such an emotional, long game the night before, they didn’t get to their hotel in New York until about 4:00. So I’m sure they didn’t exactly get their full night’s sleep. That said, I think that is overplayed a bit. I mean, in the regular season, teams play extra inning games in one city one night and then travel to another city and play the next night. Now, obviously this is a little different due to the magnitude of the play-in game and the post game celebration, but still probably a little overplayed.

·         CC Sabathia was very good in Game 1. He was throwing hard, throwing strikes and had his nasty slider working most of the night.

·         It’s hard to win a regular season when you’re #4 pitcher goes against the other team’s #1. But when you’re playing such a talented team, it’s accentuated. I actually like the Twins pitching matchup opportunities the next three games.

·         I really thought Brian Duensing pitched well and showed a lot of toughness. He went just 4.2 innings and gave up five runs, but he was able to keep the Twins in the game. The hanger that Derek Jeter hit well into the left field bleachers was a bad pitch, but other than that, he was solid. I questioned pitching to Alex Rodriguez in the 5^th inning with a base open and lefty Hideki Matsui on deck. But the pitch that Duensing threw was not bad at all. Fastball, down and in. But A-Rod is a great hitter, no matter what the media wants to tell you.

·         Then I questioned bringing Francisco Liriano in to fact Matsui. Duensing had done a very nice job against Matsui in two previous at bats. Of course, if Liriano comes in and gets Matsui, there is no need to second guess, but instead, Liriano gave up a two run homer and the game was suddenly 6-2.

·         Denard Span, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Mauer and Nick Punto each had two hits in the game. Span and Mauer each had hustle doubles. Punto coaxed the Twins only walk of the day.

·         And yes, listening to Chip Caray talk about the game is enough to make me turn the volume down and listen to John Gordon… OK, can’t do that either, but mute is definitely an option!

·         This is just my opinion, but with the Twins lacking a good DH option, I really think that they need to slide Jason Kubel back into the DH role. Jose Morales has returned to normal after hitting well most of the season. Might as well play the excellent defense of Carlos Gomez in CF with Denard Span in RF. That way, you get better defense, and you eliminate the need to remove Kubel from the game in the late innings.

·         I participated in a game of pepper with the C70 At the Bat blog, answering several postseason, Twins-related questions.

·         Topp Prospect Alert posted its Top 10 Twins prospect list.

·         IF you would like, you can listen to my appearance on Marty Andrade’s pre-game podcast that was before the Twins/Tigers game on Tuesday night.

·         Finally, bookmark the Baseball Digest Live podcast. There are two postseason preview shows there (which included impressive guests like Joe Hamrahi and Joe Posnanski and more!) and they will have frequent shows, so check their schedule.     

Please feel free to comment on anything.

Saturday Night Lights

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Be sure to tune in live to tonight’s MNGameNight.com podcast. The Twins Geek will be hosting the show tonight. I will not be on the show as I am taking a couple of days away from blogging, unless of course, there is any breaking news. There will also not be a new SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast on Monday night. During Saturday afternoon’s Twins telecast on FSN, I hosted a Live Chat. There weren’t a ton of questions, which is fine, but you can read the transcript by clicking here.

By the way, I did go to see Angels & Demons on Saturday night. I don’t know if it was quite as good as The Da Vinci Code, but obviously Tom Hanks was excellent, and it was very good and interesting.

TWINS 4, YANKEES 6 (11 Innings)

For the second straight game, the Twins lost to the Yankees on the Bombers’ final at bat. Friday night is was Melky Cabrera with a well-place soft line drive. On Saturday afternoon, it was an A-Bomb, from A-Rod. Rodriguez hit it high and he hit one far, a two run homer off of Craig Breslow with nobody out in the bottom of the 11^th inning. Here are some other notes:

• Nick Blackburn was excellent. If not for Mark Teixeira, his day would have been wonderful. In 7.2 innings, Blackburn gave up four runs on six hits. He walked three and struck out four. Then remember that Teixeira went 4-4 against him with four RBI, three on a home run, and see just how good Blackburn was against everyone else.
• Gardy decided to leave him out there for the 8^th inning. It was absolutely the right decision. Gardy decided to let him pitch to Teixeira with a runner on third and two outs that inning. It probably was the right move. I mean, you could walk him and have him pitch to A-Rod. There just really isn’t a right answer in that situation.
• Denard Span and Brendan Harris, the team’s top two hitters on the day, combined to go 0-11.
• #3 hitter, Joe Mauer, had a hit and a walk. The hit was a long home run, his sixth of the year already. He has five home runs in his last seven games.
• #4 hitter, Justin Morneau, went 2-3 with two walks. One of his hits was a home run, his 12^th of the year. He has six home runs in his last eight games.
• #5 hitter, Jason Kubel, went 2-5. He has now had four straight multi-hit games. He is 10-19 in his last five games to raise his average to .341 on the season.
• Matt Guerrier finally got a day off on Friday, but he was right back in there on Saturday afternoon. So, he has now pitched in six out of seven games. He threw two hitless innings, walked one and struck out two.
• Craig Breslow got the final out of the 10^th inning, coaxing a pop up out of Johnny Damon. He was about the only option to pitch the 11^th, and it was really an impossible situation for him. He walked Teixeira before serving up the game-winning homer to Alex Rodriguez.
• Sunday, Kevin Slowey gets his opportunity against the Yankees on Sunday afternoon when he faces off against AJ Burnett.  

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT

Saturday – SethSpeaks.net Hitter of the Day – Juan Portes, New Britain Rockcats

Saturday – SethSpeaks.net Pitcher of the Day – Dan Berlind, Beloit Snappers

ROCHESTER REPORT

Saturday –Rochester 3, Durham 4 – Anthony Swarzak threw a lot of strikes in this game. 70 of his 106 pitches were strikes. Unfortunately, many of those strikes were hit well. Swarzak gave up four runs on 11 hits and two walks in seven innings. He struck out four. Juan Morillo then struck out one in a perfect inning. David Winfree went 2-4 with his tenth double. Jason Pridie was 2-5 with his tenth stolen base.       

ROCKCAT RECAP

Saturday – Game 1 – New Britain 4, Portland 5 – Cole Devries started this game and gave up five runs on ten hits (2 HR) and two walks. Jose Lugo then got the next four outs. Rob Delaney struck out two in a perfect relief inning. Juan Portes went 2-2 with a walk and his third stolen base. Steve Tolleson went 1-2 with a walk.  

Saturday – Game 2 – New Britain 4, Portland 1 – Juan Portes had a second good game on this day. In this game, he was 2-2 with a walk. Rene Tosoni was also 2-2 with a walk. Zach Ward made the start for the Rockcats. He threw three no-hit innings. He walked two and struck out two. Frank Mata came in and gave up a run on two hits and a walk in 1.2 innings. He struck out two. Anthony Slama recorded his sixth save with 2.1 no-hit innings. He walked two and struck out three.  

MIRACLE MEMOS

Saturday –Ft. Myers 11, St. Lucie 9 (13 innings) – Carlos Gutierrez started this game and gave up four runs in five innings. None of the runs were earned. He gave up four hits, walked three and struck out three. David Bromberg entered in relief and gave up three runs (1 earned) on a hit and a walk in just 0.2 innings. Steve Hirschfeld gave up a run on two hits in 1.1 innings. Henry Arias came in and struck out three in two scoreless innings. Kyle Waldrop gave up a run to blow the save, but in all, he went three innings and gave up just the one run. Santos Arias struck one out in his inning. Danny Berg went 3-6. Danny Rams made his first start and it went quite well. He went 2-4 with a double and two RBI. Late in the game, Ben Revere pinch hit for him and stayed in the game. He went 2-2 with a walk. Evan Bigley went 2-5 with two walks and his first double. Steve Singleton was 2-5. Juan Richardson went 2-7, but his two run single in the 13^th gave the Miracle the win.     

SNAPPERS SNIPPETS

Saturday – Beloit 5, Peoria 6 – Angel Morales keeps giving glimpses that he is ready to bust out. In this game, the young outfielder went 2-3 with a walk and two doubles. Ozzie Lewis went 2-5. Dan Berlind made the start. In six innings, he gave up four hits and one walk while striking out six. Bruce Pugh gave up two runs on two hits and a walk and got just one out. Joe Testa came in and gave up two runs on a hit and a walk in 1.1 innings. He struck out two. Matt Williams allowed the losing runs to score in the 8^th. He gave up two hits in 1.1 innings.   

Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

More AL MVP Talk

As I posted earlier, the next week will be, or at least could be, incredibly intriguing because of the three Twins/White Sox games and the scenarios that could happen because of whatever happens in those games. But there is also something else for Twins fans to watch through the season’s final week, and that is the American League MVP race.

There are a lot of hitters hitting very well this year in the league, but none that are head and shoulders above the rest. I think there are ten guys whose names should be in the discussion, to some degree. In my mind, there are really only five guys that really should be in the discussion. Interestingly, those five players come from just three teams. Both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau from the Twins should be in the discussion. The Red Sox have Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youklis who warrant strong consideration this year. The other is Carlos Quentin of the White Sox who, despite missing the last three or four weeks of the season, still has to be in the discussion. Others that have been solid enough statistically to have their numbers mentioned include Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, Aubrey Huff of the Orioles, Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers and Grady Sizemore from Cleveland.

In my mind, the choice is easy. Even without my obviously homer-ish tendencies, I think that Justin Morneau is the choice for AL MVP. Both Phil Miller of the Pioneer Press and LaVelle E. Neal of the Star-Tribune penned articles on Justin Morneau’s MVP Candidacy over the weekend.  

Let’s start by looking at the more typical statistics to compare the favorites:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	XB Hits	RBI	Runs
Justin Morneau	310	382	518	900	73	128	93
Dustin Pedroia	324	376	492	868	70	79	116
Carlos Quentin	288	394	571	965	63	100	96
Kevin Youklis	311	384	556	940	71	107	87
Joe Mauer	329	415	448	863	40	79	95
Alex Rodriguez	304	393	581	974	68	101	103
Aubrey Huff	311	367	568	934	82	107	95
Josh Hamilton	308	374	538	912	70	124	94
Miguel Cabrera	297	356	548	905	72	125	83
Grady Sizemore	275	381	520	901	76	89	97

If you look at these more basic statistics, you have to wonder how the two Twins are in the discussion. Morneau leads the league in RBI, a statistic many voters put a lot of value upon. Valuable hitters drive in runs, particularly in big spots. I think it is important to look at more than just home runs, so I put extra base hits in the conversation. If you go by that, you understand why Aubrey Huff is mentioned, and again have to wonder why Joe Mauer is included. If OPS is your favorite statistic to show value (getting on base and total bases are important), then Alex Rodriguez is the clear winner. Again, if you just look at these numbers, you can lump all ten of them together and it would be impossible to really pick a winner. So, we have to look a little deeper, at some more advanced statistical analysis.

	RC	Clutch	WS	WPA	VORP
Justin Morneau	124	13.5	28	4.1	51.6
Dustin Pedroia	105	-4.6	23	3.2	59.8
Carlos Quentin	102	3.6	24	3.9	51.3
Kevin Youklis	111	13.2	24	1.6	49.7
Joe Mauer	98	2.6	27	4.6	52.5
Alex Rodriguez	93	-13.2	23	0.3	65.7
Aubrey Huff	117	2.8	23	2.4	62
Josh Hamilton	114	2.4	27	3.8	57.4
Miguel Cabrera	111	2.5	19	3.8	49.4
Grady Sizemore	123	-1.1	27	3.5	67

Alright, here are some other statistics, four at The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus and Fan Graphs.

·         Runs Created shows Justin Morneau at the top of the list, one point ahead of Grady Sizemore, and significantly ahead of the rest of the pack.

·         Clutch is obviously something that shows value, and again, Justin Morneau is at the top of the list, with Kevin Youklis the only one even close.

·         Justin Morneau is also at the top of the Win Shares list, which does factor in defense.

·         Win Probability Added obviously shows which hitters consistently come up big in important situations. Morneau comes in second in that category. Two whom? Teammate Joe Mauer has a big lead in that category.

·         Some will say that Value Over Replacement Player is important to the league MVP discussion. I do think that it has to be considered, but at the same time, the league MVP award is not a position ranking, it’s a league award. That said, this statistic again shows me that Grady Sizemore has been very good on a team that has played quite well down the stretch, although too late. Really, each of the players is doing well in this category. Of course, at 1B, there are more players who do well, so to still have a VORP that high is very impressive.

SUMMARY

Again, I wanted to look at as many names as I could to make sure that my belief that Justin Morneau should be the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player. Everyone has their favorite statistics, so I wanted to look at several that people can use to try to get a feel for each. I don’t want to let any one statistic be the reason to pick a player. However, in my mind, an MVP should:

·         Play most of his team’s games. (I think that all of the above names fit this category, you could argue that Joe Mauer and Carlos Quentin could be deducted a little bit based on games played.)

·         Be a hitter unless something absolutely crazy happens (I don’t care how great Cliff Lee was, he only pitched in about one-fifth of Cleveland’s games. I don’t care how many Saves Francisco Rodriguez racked up this season, he pitched in less than half of his team’s games, and if you want to get into it, he wasn’t even one of the game’s best closers).

·         Be from a contending team, or at least a very good team. I don’t subscribe to the thought that an MVP has to be from a playoff team or a division winner, only that his team be in contention most of the season. (That really eliminates the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Aubrey Huff, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore.)

My Vote (with a week to go in the season)

1.)    Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins

2.)    Kevin Youklis, Boston Red Sox

3.)    Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

4.)    Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

5.)    Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

6.)    Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox

7.)    Aubrey Huff, OF, Baltimore Orioles

8.)    Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

9.)    Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians

10.)                        Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

 

What do you think? Any thoughts?

 

With that, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com,