Sweep Complete! One More Day

Also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Alright, as you know, about a month ago, John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson and I started a venture which on July 13^th turned into the TwinsCentric 2009 Trade Deadline Primer. We are pretty proud of the e-book and hope that those of you who did purchase it really enjoyed it and found it interesting, thought-provoking and entertaining. For a little over a month, the trade deadline has been a fairly consuming part of my life. Doing the research, writing the pages of the book and also on this blog, and the never-ending cycle of rumors are exhausting. And now here we are, one day away from the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline, and I need sleep. But I suspect the rumors and predictions will only be stronger today and tomorrow, right up until Friday’s 3:00 central time deadline. It should be a lot of fun to see.

So where are we as Twins fans as it relates to the trade deadline? Just a month ago, the team had two alarming needs, in the middle infield and in the bullpen. Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto were terrible. Jesse Crain had just been sent down. Sean Henn had been DFA’d, and the bullpen situation was horrible. Since then, the Twins have brought back Alexi Casilla and Jesse Crain and signed 2B Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league contract. And the Twins still have holes. The middle infield, both SS and 2B now, have holes. The bullpen still needs one or two arms. The bench is in need of upgrade. And now with Kevin Slowey out for the season, Francisco Liriano having forearm issues and pitching pretty poorly, Glen Perkins up and down starts, Nick Blackburn’s struggles since the All-Star break and Scott Baker’s inability to put hitters away quickly, this team could use a starting pitcher. This team is in need of change and improvement, and yet, we are at the end of July and they are just two games back of the Detroit Tigers after sweeping the White Sox tonight. 

That tells us two very different things. First, it is very much possible that this team could still win the AL Central division even if they don’t make a move. I don’t think it would happen, and I would still argue that their chances of finishing 3^rd would be as good as their chances of finishing 1^st. It also says that a couple of additions in key spots could be enough to put the Twins over the top in the division. And once you make the playoffs, you jus never know what could happen if the Twins are playing well then. 

I know many Twins fans are more than frustrated that Twins GM Bill Smith is yet to make a move. I admit, I have been too. The key to remember is that the trade deadline is July 31^st, not July 29^th or 27^th. From rumors we have heard, teams who have been in talks with the Twins about sending veterans to Minnesota have asked for a couple of names; Aaron Hicks and Danny Valencia. And why wouldn’t they? If they don’t start negotiations there, they should be fired. And on the same hand, if the Twins front office traded either of those players at this time, they should be fired. With time on their sides, the teams (like the Pirates or Blue Jays) have the right to ask for a bunch. But as that trade deadline approaches, some of that advantage is gone. If those teams want to add prospects and/or reduce payroll, they need to deal as much as the Twins or other teams in contention. So, it is very possible that asking prices could be down by waiting.

That said, the jewel of available middle infielders this July, Freddy Sanchez, is now not an option. He was traded by the Pirates to the San Francisco Giants for AA pitcher Tim Alderson. Keith Law ranked Alderson the 26^th best prospect in all of baseball. Don’t let the fact that he is generally ranked the 3^rd or 4^th best prospect in the Giants system fool you. They have Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner at the top of their list. The Twins don’t have a prospect in their system that is as highly thought of as Bumgarner or Posey. Aaron Hicks would be close. And I know I wouldn’t trade Aaron Hicks, or Danny Valencia, for anyone, including Freddy Sanchez. 

Cliff Lee was traded from Cleveland to Philadelphia. Last year’s Cy Young winner in the AL was exchanged for three solid AAA prospects and the jewel of that deal, Jason Knapp, who is still in A ball. A very nice haul for Mark Shipiro. Could the Twins have acquired Lee? Maybe, but it would require four top 10-12 prospects in the system, and how many of them would come back to bite the Twins over the next six to eight years that they are in the same division. 

The interesting thing is that none of the prospects in the Roy Halladay to the Phillies rumors were needed to acquire Lee. That means, in theory, that the Phillies could still get Roy Halladay too.

Hey, I’m all in favor of the Twins dealing from their stable of prospects. I fully understand the you have to give up something to get something. My opinion is simply that it has to make sense. Yes, it has to make sense for 2009. But it also has to make sense for 2010, and beyond. If the Twins literally had just one hole to fill, I’d be willing to give up a little more, maybe, but this team si likely more than one player away from being a good baseball team, not just a good AL Central team. But each trade needs to be judged on its own merit. And it has to make sense.

David Eckstein – not going to make a difference. I think I’d rather wait for Grudzielanek. My guess is that the Twins will still try to make a move for a bullpen arm. It will be seen as minor, and probably will be. But that is a need. They could use a starting pitcher. Maybe Arizona would be willing to move Jon Garland or Doug Davis for a lesser package? Starting pitching is at such a premium, and as much as some of the Twins young starters have struggled, there is tremendous value in keeping them.

 

Any thoughts as the deadline approaches? What do you think?   

TWINS 3, WHITE SOX 2

I went to last night’s game with my parents, who were celebrating their 37^th wedding anniversary, my sister and my daughter. So that was a lot of fun, and thankfully the Twins no only won the game, but it wasn’t too long. A few notes:

• Brian Duensing found out just a few hours before the game that he would be starting in place of Francisco Liriano who was experiencing some swelling in his left forearm. Then he went out and pitched a very good game. He went five innings and gave up just two runs. The first was on a solo home run to Jayson Nix that was just out of the reach of Denard Span in left. The second was a no-doubter to dead center by Carlos Quentin. He gave up just one more hit, a single, and he walked just one. The team had to be thrilled with getting that from Duensing.
• Then Jesse Crain came in, which I’m sure still makes a lot of Twins fans nervous. But he did just fine too. He gave up a single to the first batter he faced, but got out of that inning. He gave up another single the next inning and was able to get a double play ball to end that inning. The Metrodome radar board showed him hitting 95 a few times. If he can come back and be what he was from 2004 until his injury in 2007, the Twins will be thrilled.
• Matt Guerrier was excellent again in the 8^th inning. He had a perfect inning which dropped his ERA to 1.99 and his WHIP to 0.85. I know he doesn’t profile as the dominant 8^th inning type that we all want, but he’s been incredible.
• And Joe Nathan got the 9^th. He certainly made things interesting as it took him two or three batters to find any control. Gordon Beckham got ahead in the count and laced a single to left. Then after striking out Jermaine Dye looking, he walked Paul Konerko. He was able to strike out Chris Getz on a slider in the dirt, but in doing so, the two runners advanced to 2^nd and 3^rd. Bobby Jenks was now warming up. Mark Kotsay, who just arrived with the team that day, came up and on the first pitch hit a hard line drive that Michael Cuddyer did not have to move for at all to end the game and give Nathan his 29^th save. After a cheap, one-out save the night before, Nathan had to work for this one!
• The Twins jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 2^nd when Alexi Casilla knocked an RBI ground-rule double to the left centerfield gap. The second run scored on a ground out by Denard Span. Then with two outs in the bottom of the 6^th inning, Casilla lined a soft single into centerfield that scored Joe Crede from second base with the go-ahead and eventual game-winning run.
• Casilla needed that. He was 2-3 with two important RBI. He also added a stolen base and advanced to 3B. His average is at .171, and like with Crain, if Casilla can go on a run the last two months, he could be very important. I don’t think any of us expect him to hit .300 the rest of the way, but if he can hit .270, play good, smart defense and run a little, he could be decent at the bottom of the order. And again, Mark Grudzielanek is putting his work in and could be ready in a couple weeks.
• Denard Span did a nice job of being a leadoff hitter again. He was on base three times, with two singles and a walk. You can’t ask for much more than that.
• The Twins managed just two other hits in the game. Jason Kubel singled in the first. Carlos Gomez had a single and a stolen base in the game.
• The Twins have a much-needed off day at home today. They have now won four straight games and are 52-50, one game ahead of the White Sox, and two games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central

Now a couple of other baseball game etiquette notes:

• I think people here know about how dumb I think that The Wave is, right? Well, sitting near the left-field foul pole, I now have a new-found dislike for the beach ball. I just don’t get that thing at all. After the first out of the 4^th inning last night, people in the left field upper deck must have agreed to something ahead of time because as soon as the first out was recorded, about 40 beach balls were knocked into the air. Some would fall to the lower level. A couple fell onto the field. Explain this to me. First, why is that fun? Second, watch the game. Third, because some people then don’t watch the game, anything can happen. As this was happening, a White Sox batter lined a foul ball into the bleachers behind the Twins bullpen. Someone got hit in the head and needed assistance. Now yes, that can happen any time, but it could also be not paying attention. And finally, it’s inevitable that one or more will fall onto the playing field, and that means that a ball boy has to run out there and pick it up. It delays the flow of the game. Anyway, there is my game rant of the day.
• Secondly, do people at games realize there is a reason that ushers generally ask fans to wait until the end of an at bat before letting people go back to their seats? It’s so that people can watch the game and see. I don’t know how many times people were asking people to stand up and let them through to their seat mid-at bat. Maybe that’s a left-field thing? But that is annoying.

Any other thoughts on the Twins sweep of the White Sox or what they need to do by tomorrow at 3? Leave your thoughts here.

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT

Wednesday – SethSpeaks.net Hitter of the Day – Deibinson Romero, Ft. Myers Miracle – Aaron Hicks, Beloit Snappers

Wednesday – SethSpeaks.net Pitcher of the Day – Santos Arias, Ft. Myers Miracle – BJ Hermsen, GCL Twins

ROCHESTER REPORT

Wednesday –Rochester 4, Gwinnett 4 – Reid Santos got the start in this game. He gave up four runs on ten hits in seven innings. He walked one and struck out two. Juan Morillo came in and struck out two in a perfect eighth inning. Trevor Plouffe went 2-4 with his 15^th double. Steve Tolleson was also 2-4.  

ROCKCAT RECAP

Wednesday – New Britain 4, New Hampshire 5 – The struggles of Matt Fox continued in this game. He fell to 6-7 on the year after giving up five runs on five hits in six innings. He walked three and struck out three. Frank Mata pitched a scoreless seventh inning. Anthony Slama walked one and struck out two in a shutout inning. Erik Lis provided the offense. He went 2-4 with his 13^th home run.    

MIRACLE MEMOS

Wednesday – Ft. Myers 4, Brevard County 2 – Deibinson Romero had a great day at the plate, and Santos Arias was excellent on the mound in the Miracle win. Romero went 2-2 with two walks and his fourth home run. Evan Bigley knocked his 15^th double. Estarlin de Los Santos went 1-3 with two walks and his fifth stolen base. Arias improved to 5-1 with seven shutout innings. He gave up just five hits, walked one and struck out three. Blair Erickson got the next five outs, but he left the game in the 9^th with the bases loaded. Loek Van Mil came in and allowed two inherited runners to score on a hit before recording the final out and his third save.   

SNAPPERS SNIPPETS

Wednesday – Beloit 2, Great Lakes 4 – Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales both had good games at the plate, but it wasn’t enough for the Snappers on this night. Hicks went 2-3 with two walks, his second triple and fourth stolen base. Angel Morales was 2-4 with his 13^th double. Dan Berlind got his 10^th loss of the season. In five innings, he gave up four runs on five hits and three walks. Kyle Carr struck out two in 1.2 scoreless innings. Bruce Pugh struck out the only guy he faced. Billy Bullock pitched another scoreless inning.   

E-TWINS EXTRAS

Wednesday – Elizabethton, Johnson City – Postponed by Rain again.

GCL TWINS GOINGS ON

Wednesday – GCL Twins 4, GCL Rays 0 – BJ Hermsen continues to impress. He improved to 5-1 and reduced his ERA to 1.05. He threw six shutout innings and allowed just four hits and a walk in six innings. Zach See threw two scoreless innings before Jean Mijares pitched a perfect ninth. Brian Bistagne went 2-3. Mark Grudzielanek went 1-3. Oswaldo Arcia went 1-3 with a walk, his fifth double and sixth stolen base.  

Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

More AL MVP Talk

As I posted earlier, the next week will be, or at least could be, incredibly intriguing because of the three Twins/White Sox games and the scenarios that could happen because of whatever happens in those games. But there is also something else for Twins fans to watch through the season’s final week, and that is the American League MVP race.

There are a lot of hitters hitting very well this year in the league, but none that are head and shoulders above the rest. I think there are ten guys whose names should be in the discussion, to some degree. In my mind, there are really only five guys that really should be in the discussion. Interestingly, those five players come from just three teams. Both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau from the Twins should be in the discussion. The Red Sox have Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youklis who warrant strong consideration this year. The other is Carlos Quentin of the White Sox who, despite missing the last three or four weeks of the season, still has to be in the discussion. Others that have been solid enough statistically to have their numbers mentioned include Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, Aubrey Huff of the Orioles, Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers and Grady Sizemore from Cleveland.

In my mind, the choice is easy. Even without my obviously homer-ish tendencies, I think that Justin Morneau is the choice for AL MVP. Both Phil Miller of the Pioneer Press and LaVelle E. Neal of the Star-Tribune penned articles on Justin Morneau’s MVP Candidacy over the weekend.  

Let’s start by looking at the more typical statistics to compare the favorites:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	XB Hits	RBI	Runs
Justin Morneau	310	382	518	900	73	128	93
Dustin Pedroia	324	376	492	868	70	79	116
Carlos Quentin	288	394	571	965	63	100	96
Kevin Youklis	311	384	556	940	71	107	87
Joe Mauer	329	415	448	863	40	79	95
Alex Rodriguez	304	393	581	974	68	101	103
Aubrey Huff	311	367	568	934	82	107	95
Josh Hamilton	308	374	538	912	70	124	94
Miguel Cabrera	297	356	548	905	72	125	83
Grady Sizemore	275	381	520	901	76	89	97

If you look at these more basic statistics, you have to wonder how the two Twins are in the discussion. Morneau leads the league in RBI, a statistic many voters put a lot of value upon. Valuable hitters drive in runs, particularly in big spots. I think it is important to look at more than just home runs, so I put extra base hits in the conversation. If you go by that, you understand why Aubrey Huff is mentioned, and again have to wonder why Joe Mauer is included. If OPS is your favorite statistic to show value (getting on base and total bases are important), then Alex Rodriguez is the clear winner. Again, if you just look at these numbers, you can lump all ten of them together and it would be impossible to really pick a winner. So, we have to look a little deeper, at some more advanced statistical analysis.

	RC	Clutch	WS	WPA	VORP
Justin Morneau	124	13.5	28	4.1	51.6
Dustin Pedroia	105	-4.6	23	3.2	59.8
Carlos Quentin	102	3.6	24	3.9	51.3
Kevin Youklis	111	13.2	24	1.6	49.7
Joe Mauer	98	2.6	27	4.6	52.5
Alex Rodriguez	93	-13.2	23	0.3	65.7
Aubrey Huff	117	2.8	23	2.4	62
Josh Hamilton	114	2.4	27	3.8	57.4
Miguel Cabrera	111	2.5	19	3.8	49.4
Grady Sizemore	123	-1.1	27	3.5	67

Alright, here are some other statistics, four at The Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus and Fan Graphs.

·         Runs Created shows Justin Morneau at the top of the list, one point ahead of Grady Sizemore, and significantly ahead of the rest of the pack.

·         Clutch is obviously something that shows value, and again, Justin Morneau is at the top of the list, with Kevin Youklis the only one even close.

·         Justin Morneau is also at the top of the Win Shares list, which does factor in defense.

·         Win Probability Added obviously shows which hitters consistently come up big in important situations. Morneau comes in second in that category. Two whom? Teammate Joe Mauer has a big lead in that category.

·         Some will say that Value Over Replacement Player is important to the league MVP discussion. I do think that it has to be considered, but at the same time, the league MVP award is not a position ranking, it’s a league award. That said, this statistic again shows me that Grady Sizemore has been very good on a team that has played quite well down the stretch, although too late. Really, each of the players is doing well in this category. Of course, at 1B, there are more players who do well, so to still have a VORP that high is very impressive.

SUMMARY

Again, I wanted to look at as many names as I could to make sure that my belief that Justin Morneau should be the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player. Everyone has their favorite statistics, so I wanted to look at several that people can use to try to get a feel for each. I don’t want to let any one statistic be the reason to pick a player. However, in my mind, an MVP should:

·         Play most of his team’s games. (I think that all of the above names fit this category, you could argue that Joe Mauer and Carlos Quentin could be deducted a little bit based on games played.)

·         Be a hitter unless something absolutely crazy happens (I don’t care how great Cliff Lee was, he only pitched in about one-fifth of Cleveland’s games. I don’t care how many Saves Francisco Rodriguez racked up this season, he pitched in less than half of his team’s games, and if you want to get into it, he wasn’t even one of the game’s best closers).

·         Be from a contending team, or at least a very good team. I don’t subscribe to the thought that an MVP has to be from a playoff team or a division winner, only that his team be in contention most of the season. (That really eliminates the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Aubrey Huff, Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore.)

My Vote (with a week to go in the season)

1.)    Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins

2.)    Kevin Youklis, Boston Red Sox

3.)    Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

4.)    Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

5.)    Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

6.)    Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox

7.)    Aubrey Huff, OF, Baltimore Orioles

8.)    Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

9.)    Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians

10.)                        Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

 

What do you think? Any thoughts?

 

With that, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com,