True/False? Over/Under? (Part 2)

8 May

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net – 

Here I continue to answer your questions on the Twins and their minor league system.

Your questions:

From Doogie – Over/Under games in which the Twins will be shutout this season – 14.

    1. Seth – Under. That said, they’ve been shut out three times so far in 29 games which puts them on pace to be shutout 16 times.

From Doogie – Will the current starting rotation because of performance (putting injuries aside), still be the same on Aug. 1?

    1. Seth – Yes – I think it will remain that same, as you said, barring injury. Anthony Swarzak (and to a lesser degree, Kevin Mulvey) is looming large right now at Rochester, but let’s see where he is in mid-June, and where the Twins starters are. I would like to think (and hope!) that things would stabilize for the starters.

 From Doogie – I say 86 wins gets you this division, which will be the lowest amount of any division winner – do you go higher or lower?

    1. Seth – Higher – But not much. I think that one of the teams will have a burst and jump up to the 88-90 range. That still may be the lowest of any division winner.

 From Doogie – T/F: Bill Smith will make a significant trade before the non-waiver trade deadline.

  1.  
    1. Seth – True – But it won’t be deemed ‘significant’ by most. I think he’ll make a move in mid-July to address the team’s biggest area of need. It may not be for a marquee name that everyone wants, but it will make a lot of sense at the time.  

From Cole – T/F: Luke Hughes’ Defense will improve enough so he will be a decent position player option for the Twins, not just DH.

    1. Seth – True – But I only say that because you used the word “decent.” Brian Buscher is a ‘decent’ position player option, and Hughes may not be a lot worse. He does have six errors in 23 games this season at 3B for the Red Wings.

 From Cole – T/F: Alexi Casilla has seen his last days in a twins uniform as Rob Neyer suggests here.

From Nick – True or False, Alexi Casilla will be the Twins opening day 2B when the team opens up Target Field next year.

  1. Seth – To both questions, No. I do think that Casilla will return to the Twins at some point this season and be on the roster to start the 2010 season. I just don’t think he will be the starter. Gardy’s got his Tolbert/Punto combination now!

 From Cole – Over/Under – Danny Valencia will hit .280 15hr 80rbi his first year with the twins, and average that yearly with the twins .

    1. Seth – False – I think he can hit .280 and hit 15 home runs in a full season, if he comes up with the team to start the year. My guess is that the Twins won’t have him start the season with the team, but hopefully be ready to come up a month or two later. Also, I think that he would likely hit down in the lineup a ways, so 80 RBI might be tough. Now, after his initial season, I think he’ll be a middle of the order type of bat, and those numbers will certainly be well within his grasp.

 From Ben P – Over/Under Liriano’s K/9 innings 8.5

    1. Seth – Under.  Right now, he’s at 7.3, and I think that number will rise. But I would project maybe 8.2 or 8.3. He still does have good stuff, but he is certainly pitching to contact.

10.  From Ben P – Over Under Jose Mijares 3.75 ERA

  1. Seth – Under, and I would project by quite a bit, maybe in the 2.20 range.

11.  From Ben P – True or False Juan Morillo will be on the Twins roster at the start of next year

  1. Seth – True – In 4.1 innings at Rochester, he has five strikeouts and NO walks. That is probably the only statistic I look at with Morillo. The Twins can keep him in AAA the rest of this season, working with Bobby Cuellar, hopefully refining his control and working on a second pitch. I think he could be a very important cog in the 2010 bullpen.  

 12.  From Ben P – True/False: Joe Crede plays 100 games.

  1. Seth – True – He has played in 23 out of 29 games so far this season, and one of the games missed was due to the birth of a child, and another was due to an illness. He is on pace to play in just shy of 130 games. That was always the magic number I used to determine if the Twins should sign him, and I think he can do it.  

13.  From Ben P – True/False: Matt Tolbert will have a higher OPS than Nick Punto this year.

  1. Seth – True – I could have a higher OPS than Nick Punto. OK, I probably couldn’t, but Matt Tolbert certainly can. Punto is at .496 now, which he probably won’t stay at. I would expect he’d end the season between .580 and .620. Tolbert can probably have an OPS in the .650-690 range over the course of the season.  

 14.  From Brendon – Over/Under – Johan Santana’s strikeout total will be 300.  (Career high 265 – current pace 324).

15.  From Brendon – True or False – Johan Santana will win his 3rd career Cy Young and 1st for the Mets.

  1. Seth – Under – But he could break his career high. Isn’t he supposed to be a slow starter? He is currently 4-1 with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. And yes, he will win that NL Cy Young this year.  

 16.  From Brendon – True or False – Royals will surprise everyone and win the central division.

  1. Seth – False – But I think they will compete into September. I know my bias shows, but I fully believe that the Twins have the most talent in the division and will, at some point, turn things around.  

17.  From Brendon – True or False – Trevor Plouffe will play more games at SS than Nick Punto in 2010.

  1. Seth – False – A Gardy-led team will play Nick Punto at SS as much as he can, so unless Punto is injured, he will be the team’s primary SS. That said, I hope that the answer to your question is True.

 18.  From Brendon – Over/Under – Joe Mauer’s new contract (with the Twins) will average 18M per year.

  1. Seth – False – earlier I mentioned that I thought the Twins would sign Mauer to a five year deal. I think it would take at least $79-85 million. Huge numbers, but the average would be between $15.8 and $17.

19.  From Nick – Over/Under – Joe Crede’s HR total – 20.

  1. Seth – Under – He is on pace for about 16, and I think coming into the year, my expectation would have been 15-18, if healthy. If he was hitting .250 instead of .232, he would be basically playing as expected.

 20.  From Nick – Over/Under – Kubel’s RBI total – 100

  1. Seth – Under – He is on pace for about 90. Maybe more important, he hits behind Justin Morneau. He may not have a ton of RBI opportunities. I also think that at some point, he will move down to the 6th spot in the order.

21.  From Nick – Over/Under – Span’s batting average – .300.

  1. Seth – Under – but over .290. Most important than batting average for Span is his on-base percentage. I would like to see him keep his OBP over .380.

 22. From Nick – Over/Under – Liriano’s ERA – 4.00.

  1. Seth – Under – Liriano’s ERA is currently at 5.30, but it can still come back down in a hurry. I still think it will be in the low-3s.

Still more questions to answer, so be sure to keep checking back later in the day. Feel free to send in more questions. Any thoughts? Leave your questions or comments here.

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