Guerra/Hughes to New Britain

7 Jul

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net

The New Britains made three roster moves today. The first was putting pitcher Jay Rainville on the disabled list. The other two were a little more surprising.

First, Luke Hughes was activated and sent to New Britain. I have mentioned that previously as an option simply because he needs to get back into the proverbial swing of things with some consistent at bats. I don’t expect him to be with the Rockcats too long.

The other move is the one that may create some discussion. The Twins decided to promote 20 year old Deolis Guerra from Ft. Myers to New Britain. Now, I think I could make stronger arguments for three other Miracle starters (Tyler Robertson, David Bromberg and Mike McCardell) much more deserving, and older. The argument for Guerra being promoted is that he has now spent 2 1/2 seasons in the Florida State League and needs to make a move. Maybe he will “pull a Swarzak” and shock us all by being better with an undeserved promotion. We shall see.

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4 Responses to “Guerra/Hughes to New Britain”

  1. Jeremy July 7, 2009 at 10:24 pm #

    Seth,

    I believe the Twins have to make a decision on Deolis Guerra this fall as to whether they want to add him to the 40-man roster. Do you think that played a factor in their decision to move him up? I know the same could be said about Bromberg, but he seems to be pitching pretty well and I would consider him an easy choice to be added. McCardell and Robertson both have another year. It’s just my opinion, but I would hope that pitchers are pitching at AAA during their first option year.

    There are a lot of pitchers that will have to be decided on. It should make for a fun November.

  2. Joe July 7, 2009 at 11:12 pm #

    Have they made a decision on the pitching staff at Rochester or are they just going to throw spot starters the rest of the year? Also are you surprised that Van Mil hasn’t been promoted yet?

  3. Joe July 8, 2009 at 8:08 am #

    You are right you could make a better argument for any one of the other 3 starters at Fort Myers to be called up however 2 and a half years is long enough for Guerra if you ask me. I said earlier in the season that if could get a confidence boost with a promotion. He is still only 20 and not every body can be Felix Hernandez. What is the deal with the 40 man roster. Who has to be on it and what are the general rules?

  4. Joe July 8, 2009 at 6:24 pm #

    OK I crunched some numbers and decided Deolis Guerra has shown more improvement in 2009 from 2008 then people think. Now if you just want to go by the numbers he is clearly the last guy on the list of pitchers with Tyler Robertson, David Bromberg and Mike McCardell that should be promoted. But I ruled out Tyler Robertson based on his injury issues and the fact that he as not really overpowered FSL lineups yet. Mike McCardell has suffered the big drop off after he dominated the Midwest league. So that leaves Fort Myers staff ace David Bromberg. So this is where I made my comparisons by how much Guerra and Bromberg improved in (innings per appearance, ERA, strikeouts per 9 innings, walks per 9 innings, strikeout to walk ratio and WHIP.

    I do know Bromberg was in a different league however I have read just about everywhere that the FSL is a pitcher friendly league. So this just helps my case and the Twins decision to promote Guerra.

    I used Baseball Reference to compare the stats from 2008 and 2009 in the following stats. Below is the percentage change in each statistical category.

    David Bromberg
    Innings Per Appearance: down 18%
    ERA: better by 38.96% (4.44 in Beloit and 2.71 in Ft Myers)
    K/9: down 25.47% (10.6 in Beloit and 7.9 in Ft Myers)
    BB/9: up 21.875 percent (3.2 in Beloit and 3.9 in Ft Myers)
    K/BB: down 27.5% (3.28 in Beloit and 2.05 in Ft Myers)
    WHIP: better by 4.95%

    Deolis Guerra
    Inning Per Appearance: up 7.4%
    ERA: better by 14.57% (5.49 in 2008 and 4.69 in 2009)
    K/9: up 20.41% (4.9 in 2008 and 5.9 in 2009)
    BB/9: down 46.94% (4.9 in 2008 and 2.6 in 2009)
    K/BB: better up 128% (71 to 71 in 2008 and 57 to 25 in 2009)
    WHIP: better by 13.66%

    Again some of the overall numbers you have to flat out give to Bromberg. But their are some cases that you can make for Guerra. Guerra’s amazing improvement with his control is what the Twins like. They will take a guy who can not walk guys over someone who gets strike outs any day of the week. I hope the change of scenery will help Deolis Guerra. He has literally fallen off the map since the trade from the Mets.

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