Updated Top 50 Twins Prospects

13 Aug

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net

Generally speaking, I post my Top 50 Twins Prospects list in early June and then after the season, in September sometime. Usually I will post a quick update right before spring training starts. I thought it would be fun to do an updated Top 50 Prospect list today. I’m not going to do the full profiles like I do in the main ones. In fact, this is just a list to create conversation. Tell me that you’re surprised by someone’s ranking and ask questions and help each other learn more about these guys. Tell me I’m an idiot for having someone too high or too low. I’m always interested in what other people think of these players. So again, let’s have a really good discussion about the Twins minor leaguers using this list as a starting point.

  1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Beloit Snappers
  2. Angel Morales, OF, Beloit Snappers
  3. Wilson Ramos, C, New Britain Rockcats
  4. Danny Valencia, 3B, Rochester Red Wings
  5. Ben Revere, OF, Ft. Myers Miracle
  6. David Bromberg, RHP, Ft. Myers Miracle
  7. Rene Tosoni, OF, New Britain Rockcats
  8. Joe Benson, OF, Ft. Myers Miracle
  9. Deolis Guerra, RHP, New Britain Rockcats

10.  Adrian Salcedo, LHP, GCL Twins 

11.  Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF, Ft. Myers Miracle

12.  Danny Rams, C/1B, Beloit Snappers

13.  Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, New Britain Rockcats

14.  Jeff Manship, RHP, Minnesota Twins

15.  Tyler Robertson, LHP, Ft. Myers Miracle

16.  BJ Hermsen, RHP, GCL Twins

17.  Anthony Slama, RH RP, Rochester Red Wings

18.  Rob Delaney, RH RP, Rochester Red Wings

19.  Luke Hughes, UT, New Britain Rockcats

20.  Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Rochester Red Wings

21.  Tom Stuifbergen, RHP, Elizabethton Twins

22.  Steve Singleton, MI, New Britain Rockcats

23.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, GCL Twins

24.  Trevor Plouffe, SS, Rochester Red Wings

25.  Josmil Pinto, C, Elizabethton Twins

26.  Michael McCardell, RHP, New Britain Rockcats

27.  Steve Tolleson, IF/OF, Rochester Red Wings

28.  Alex Burnett, RH RP, New Britain Rockcats

29.  Andrei Lobanov, LH RP, GCL Twins

30.  Blayne Weller, RHP, GCL Twins

31.  Jose Morales, C, Rochester Red Wings

32.  Martire Garcia, LHP, Elizabethton Twins

33.  David Winfree, OF, Rochester Red Wings

34.  Brian Dinkelman, 2B, New Britain Rockcats

35.  Billy Bullock, RH RP, Beloit Snappers

36.  Deibinson Romero, 3B, Ft. Myers Miracle

37.  Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Ft. Myers Miracle

38.  Whit Robbins, 1B, New Britain Rockcats

39.  Evan Bigley, OF, Ft. Myers Miracle

40.  Michael Tonkin, RHP, GCL Twins

41.  Matt Bashore, LHP, Elizabethton Twins

42.  James Beresford, SS, Beloit Snappers

43.  Chris Herrmann, OF, Elizabethton Twins

44.  Brian Dozier, SS, Elizabethton Twins

45.  Brad Tippett, RHP, Beloit Snappers

46.  Daniel Santana, SS, GCL Twins

47.  Liam Hendriks, RHP, Beloit Snappers

48.  Reggie Williams, UT, Elizabethton Twins

49.  Ben Tootle, RH RP, Elizabethton Twins

50.  Juan Morillo, RH RP, Rochester Red Wings

51.  Bonus – Yohan Pino, RHP, Rochester Red Wings

52.  Bonus – Loek Van Mil, RH RP, New Britain Rockcats

OTHERS TO CONSIDERDustin Martin, OF, Rochester Red Wings – Erik Lis, DH, New Britain Rockcats – Cole DeVries, RHP, New Britain Rockcats – Matt Fox, RHP, New Britain Rockcats – Santos Arias, RHP, Ft. Myers Miracle – Steve Hirschfeld, RHP, Ft. Myers Miracles – Ramon Santana, IF, Beloit Snappers – Shooter Hunt – RHP – Jon Waltenbury, 1B, Beloit Snappers – Derek McCallum, 2B, Elizabethton Twins – Michael Gonzalez, 1B, Elizabethton Twins – Wang Wei-Lin, OF, GCL Twins – Jairo Perez, IF, GCL Twins –

Alright, so this is a non-official ranking. My post season rankings will still appear after the minor league seasons sometime. But I hope that this updated list will create some fun discussion about the Twins prospects. Keep it educational and informative, please. Please leave your Comments here.  

TWINS 7, ROYALS 1

The story of this game was Francisco Liriano. He had not pitched in a game for a week, and he had just one start in nearly three weeks. In the first inning, he looked good, but he also gave up a solo home run to Willie Bloomquist. It was a controlled optimism for me at that point. I mean, he’s shown glimpses before. But after that, he was excellent. Liriano went seven innings and gave up just that run on just three hits. More important, he walked just one and struck out eight. He looked like a different, better pitcher, and the Twins need that. Hopefully this is something that he can build on for the rest of the season. We can hope. We have seen good starts before. He just has to put together a nice run. I think the argument could be made that the Twins postseason chances are directly related to the success of Liriano the rest of the way.

After Liriano gave up the run in the first inning, the Twins came back. With two outs, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau singled. Jason Kubel singled in Mauer. Michael Cuddyer singled in Morneau. And then Joe Crede launched his 15th home run of the season to give the Twins a 5-1 lead. Crede went 3-3 in his first game back after his second cortisone shot.

Matt Guerrier pitched a scoreless eighth inning. He had not pitched since Sunday. Joe Nathan struck out the side in the 9th. He had not pitched since last Friday, so it was good to get both of them into an inning. Some thought that Jeff Manship should have thrown those final two innings. I disagree, and here is why. In Tuesday’s debacle, Brian Duensing, Bobby Keppel and Jesse Crain pitched enough that they could not pitch on Wednesday and ideally would not have to pitch on Thursday. So, if Carl Pavano has a short site this afternoon, it would still be good to have Manship available to go four or five innings, if necessary.

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT

Wednesday – SethSpeaks.net Hitter of the Day – Rene Tosoni, New Britain Rockcats

Wednesday – SethSpeaks.net Pitcher of the Day – Miguel Munoz, Elizabethton Twins

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

OK, it was a day full of transactions yesterday, so as a reminder, I’ll list what I believe to be all of them here.

  • Glen Perkins put on the Disabled List.
  • Jeff Manship added to the 40 man roster and promoted to the Twins. Kevin Slowey put on the 60 Day Disabled List.
  • Anthony Slama promoted to Rochester.
  • Loek Van Mil promoted to New Britain.
  • Wilson Ramos to be activated from the Disabled List and return to New Britain.
  • Bobby Lanigan promoted to Ft. Myers.
  • Brad Stillings promoted to Beloit.
  • Kelvin Mota and Jhon Garcia promoted to Elizabethton.

ROCHESTER REPORT

Wednesday – Rochester 4, Buffalo 7 – Reid Santos found out earlier in the day that he would be starting this game instead of Jeff Manship. It didn’t go so well. He gave up six runs on five hits and two walks in five innings. Jason Jones gave up an unearned run on three hits in three innings. The Red Wings managed just six hits in this game. Brock Peterson hit his seventh home run. Danny Valencia added his sixth homer.  

ROCKCAT RECAP

Wednesday – New Britain 4, Erie 1 – Mike McCardell came off of the Disabled List and gave up just one run over five innings. He allowed four hits, walked two and struck out four. Carlos Gutierrez worked a scoreless sixth. Frank Mata threw two scoreless innings. Alex Burnett takes over the closer’s role from Anthony Slama. He recorded his third save with a scoreless ninth. Rene Tosoni led the offense. He hit his 23rd double and his 13th home run. Luke Hughes hit his ninth double.

MIRACLE MEMOS

Wednesday – Ft. Myers 3, Palm Beach 10 Deibinson Romero went 2-4. Estarlin de Los Santos hit his tenth double. But the pitching and defense just weren’t good. Michael Tarsi started and in six innings, he gave up six runs (3 earned) on nine hits and two walks. Joe Testa gave up three runs (1 earned) on four hits and a walk in 1.2 innings. He did strike out three. Henry Arias got the final four outs, two on strikeouts. He gave up one run on one hit.   

SNAPPERS SNIPPETS

Wednesday – Beloit 2, Clinton 4 Brad Tippett pitched very well again. In 6.2 innings, he gave up two runs on three hits. He walked one and struck out five. Dan Osterbrock got the final out of the 7th, but not until he gave up another run on one hit and two walks. Kyle Carr threw two innings. He gave up a run on two hits and a walk. Angel Morales went 2-4 with his 19th double. Ramon Santana and Jonathan Waltenbury were each 2-4 as well.

E-TWINS EXTRAS

Wednesday – Elizabethton 5, Greeneville 1 Miguel Munoz has struggled quite a bit this season, so it was great to see him have such a good start. He gave up just one run on three hits and a walk in eight innings. He struck out six. Matt Tone struck out two in a scoreless ninth. Josmil Pinto went 2-4 with his ninth home run. Paul-Michael Klingsberg went 2-4.  

GCL TWINS GOINGS ON

Wednesday – GCL Twins, GCL Rays – This game was suspended after just three innings due to rain. I obviously won’t go back and look at old box scores, so here are a couple of highlights. Jairo Perez had a double and a triple to that point. BJ Hermsen threw three innings and gave up just one hit, walked one and struck out five.

Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

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59 Responses to “Updated Top 50 Twins Prospects”

  1. Dwade August 13, 2009 at 12:32 am #

    I’m as high on Deolis Guerra as anyone, but he’s got to start sliding down these boards at some point. He’s shown flashes of what he’s capable of, but by and large, he’s been pretty ineffective to date.

    He’s so young, he’s got time to be bad, figure it out, and still have a solid major league career, but from what he’s shown so far in A and AA, I wouldn’t put him at 9.

    If/when Kyle Gibson signs, where does he slot in?

  2. TwinsFix August 13, 2009 at 1:32 am #

    @Dwade

    I rated Guerra 4th last year, so I’m among those incredibly high on him, but I agree. He should be 10-15 because he hasn’t shown us anything on the hill.

    And couldn’t Gibson be a top-5 prospect?

    • Joe August 13, 2009 at 7:00 am #

      Once Gibson signs he is the teams top pitching prospect in my opinion. His will be top 3 in the organization as well.

  3. roger August 13, 2009 at 6:24 am #

    Seth, like those above, I must question Guerra’s ranking until we start to see some level of dominance from him.

    Other changes that I would make include: I would get both McCardell and Burnett up near the Top 10. Certainly would question Morales at #2 a couple months ago, but he has done what we want to see from a 19 year old in A ball these past couple months.

    You know that I like to see prospects get it done on the field to earn their high rankings. Thus, I can’t see Hicks at #1 no matter how great everyone thinks his “tools” are. Personally, I would exchange Hicks with Tosoni moving up all the way to #1. Of the extra players you mention, how can Steve Hirschfield not be in your top 50? I would think he deserves to be in the high 20’s or so…based on how he has been pitching at Ft. Myers.

  4. Ned August 13, 2009 at 6:34 am #

    Thank you Seth. Great list. It would be interesting if you put your spring ranking of the player so we could see if they were moving up, down, or a draft choice.

  5. Bill August 13, 2009 at 6:40 am #

    I thought everybody agreed Revere was either #1 or #2. He might only be Juan Pierre (though I think he already has more patience than that), but I don’t see anybody other than arguably Hicks who’s a sure thing to be any better than that…

  6. Joe August 13, 2009 at 6:58 am #

    I really do not think its time for Guerra to be this high. He is not consistent at all. When he shows glimpses of greatness he follows it up with hints of retardation.

    BJ Hermsen should be higher. He is right there with Salcedo. Only a year older too.

    Are we not putting Jorge Polanco and Max Keppler on this because we have never seen them before. Couple 16 year from Dominican and Germany respectively.

    Baseball America thought more highly of David Bromberg then Kyle Drabek. If you all remember Drabek was the prized prosect that the Phillies refused to trade in the Roy Halladay negotiations.

  7. Bill in Sarasota August 13, 2009 at 7:01 am #

    Here are my five biggest differences:
    – Hirschfeld at 21 instead of (>50) – performance speaks for itself even at 24 in High A.
    – Tippett at 17 instead of 45 – great year at 21 in low A, 3rd straight successful year
    – Burnett at 10 instead of 28 – dominant RP in AA at 22, he could in the Twins bullpen late next year.
    – Guerra at 15 instead of 9 – I think 9 is being hopeful the potential finally delivers sometime in the future
    – Salcedo at 22 instead of 10 – intriguing at 18 but I want another good year before he’s in my top ten.

    The difference is I weigh performance more than you and I don’t discount RP as much as you.

    Seth – Great job for starting the discussion

  8. Michael M August 13, 2009 at 7:48 am #

    I think Revere has done enough to earn top 2 standing while I’d Morales right below Tosoni. I’d rank Burnett higher and am surprised that Santos Arias isn’t ranked a lot higher.

    I think ranking is like comparing apples to oranges as lower-level guys tend to get inflated based on “potential,” “tools”, etc whereas the higher guys are tied more to performance. I guess I’d rather see these rankings divided between AA/AAA top 25 and HIgh A and lower top 40ish.

  9. brad August 13, 2009 at 7:52 am #

    I too like produciton over projection and Revere and Burnett would be higher and Guerra maybe around 20.

    Seth, any update on Gibson?? Are the Twins close to signing him before the deadline?

  10. thrylos98 August 13, 2009 at 8:10 am #

    interesting… I wished you weighted until Monday (the signing deadline for the 2009 draftees) before this 🙂 I think some of the new blood is ranked a bit lower than it should have been (based on the rankings of the new blood the last couple of seasons). Bullock, Bashore and Gibson (when he signs) are probably as good or even better than Gutierrez and Hermsen at this point.

    Poor Jose Morales and Juan Morillo so low? We know that Morales will be in the show this season and so far has hit .300+ in the majors, so at this point, he is more of a sure think than Danny Rams (who just had one good season in A ball play). And Morillo’s stuff by itself should rank him higher than any other AAA pitcher (Mulvey, Manship, even Delaney); he is the same age as Slama and one year older than Delaney and I would think that he has better potential just based on that fastball (same argument somewhat for ranking Guerra that high. It is the stuff)

  11. gobbledygookguy August 13, 2009 at 8:25 am #

    doesn’t make last years draft look real great when Gutierrez is 13, Hunt is out of the top 50 and the 2nd round pick has been traded. not the way to rebuild a floundering system.

  12. Topper August 13, 2009 at 8:26 am #

    Thanks for this Seth, good idea.

    Salcedo looks like a great player, he’s had some sick games, I like his potential. Glad he’s on the cusp of the top 10. I also like seeing lots of our new blood on this list, that was some solid drafting — I like McCallum, I’d love to see him in top 50 somewhere.

    I’d also love to see Sano on this list, but that’s just wishful thinking…

  13. Sarah August 13, 2009 at 9:18 am #

    I think Juan Portes is doing great this season and it’s not receiving the credit he deserves.

    Why not add him to the list?

  14. clyde August 13, 2009 at 9:23 am #

    Seth, do you know the reason why Matt Bashore has only pitched once?

  15. TT August 13, 2009 at 9:26 am #

    Seth –

    There seem to be a large number of rookie and a-ball players high on that list. That usually means that a player’s optimistic upside is weighted heavily compared to the likelihood they will contribute anything at the major league level. Was that intentional?

    “Baseball America thought more highly of David Bromberg then Kyle Drabek. ”

    I thought the BBA best tools were based on a vote of the league’s managers. Historically that has made them sort of the equivalent of gold glove voting. Not meaningless but not always meaningful either. Have they changed that? If Bromberg was stock, now would be the time to sell. He may turn out to be a decent pitcher. But he is not really a top pitching prospect.

    I think you have Luke Hughes way overrated. He has no position. There is no way he is a better prospect than Mulvey or Plouffe by any standard. Morales is probably a better hitter and plays a premiere defensive position.

    I would add Danny Valencia to the list of overrated players. He finally does have a five game hitting streak going, but he still managed to hit under .250 during it. He’s not a defensive wizard and until he demonstrates he can at least hit AAA pitching, he looks like a guy whose numbers have been inflated by being old for his league. Even his upside doesn’t warrant a number 5 rating. He may hit as well as Brendan Harris with a slightly better glove at third.

    I think Ramos belongs at the top of these ratings. He is above average at a premier fielding position and he can hit and hit for power. I think the only reason there isn’t more excitement about him is that the Twins have Joe Mauer.

    I think Revere, Hicks, Benson and Morales are basically a wash. They all have tools and who turns out better will depend on who does a better job of refining those tools at the major league level. That’s not saying all four will make it that far. But its likely we won’t know who the best of them is until we see what they do at the major league level.

    Which brings us to performance versus tools for evaluation. If you are going to wait to see how players perform, why not wait until they perform at the major league level. Rating prospects is all about projecting how much better they will be in the future. If you stuck Hicks, A. Morales, Revere and Benson at AAA right now, none of them would likely do very well. That doesn’t make them worse prospects than Luke Hughes. It doesn’t make Trevor Plouffe a worse prospect either.

  16. Seth August 13, 2009 at 9:27 am #

    Great comments everybody!! Keep them coming. I’m really happy that I did this as I think your opinions and comments and such will help me think through my choices. Although in past years, it has typically been pretty easy to come up with a top 3 or top 5, I think this is a very interesting, debatable group of prospects. I legitimately think you could make an argument for 1-7 all to be #1 or to move up or down. With the season Bromberg is having, how can I have him at #6?!

    I also agree that it is inexcusible that I don’t have Hirschfeld in there. Portes was kind of an oversite. I put a lot of time into this list without trying to be perfect (is there such a thing as “perfect” when it comes to prospect rankings?). I wanted just a good feel for where I would rank people as of today, and definitely want to encourage this discussion. A 20 year old pitcher showing signs of life in AA is much more exciting to me than a 25 year old reliever dominating at AA. By that, I don’t disagree that I probably should have Burnett higher.

    I’ll try to address some of the questions throughout the day, so keep them coming. I want to make not only the Top 50 prospects after the season good, but also look for any thoughts as I’m working toward the 2010 Prospect Handbook.

  17. Seth August 13, 2009 at 9:40 am #

    Update on Gibson – chatted with him a little bit yesterday… I was telling Travis of Travis Talks (TravisTwinsTalk.blogspot.com) that I’m now thinking his odds of signing are about 55%, whereas I had been saying 80% If he does sign, it won’t be until Monday.

    If Gibson signs, I would probably put him at #2, but again, you could make an argument for #1 as well.

    Bashore has been shutdown until Instructional League just do to forearm soreness. Not believed to be anything major. I also heard the other day that Tootle has been shut down until Instructs, but haven’t had that verified.

    McCardell is definitely one that could be higher as well, so I’m glad that’s been pointed out.

    Salcedo vs Hermsen is a great debate and hopefully they will both do well and be at the top of the list the next couple of years. I like Salcedo because of the strikeouts, and Hermsen just hasn’t recorded as many yet. But GCL numbers are hard to put value on. Both could be special though.

    As for the 16 year olds signed by the Twins, I didn’t include them. The guys from the Dominican and Venezuela will likely end up in the DSL for a couple of years, and I don’t have DSL players in this ranking. And, we’ll see on Kepler. I don’t even know where he would go to play next year? Australia? GCL?

    Morillo… I just couldn’t get past the walks. I know others are high, but he’s at almost 6 per nine innings and I just can’t see him getting much leash with that.

    TT – you are right, BB America’s Tools issue is based on voting from league managers, so it has to be taken for what it is.

    I figured some wouldn’t agree with me having Ramos so high based on injury, but considering age, and successes and power and being a good, strong-armed catcher, his ceiling could be tremendous!

    Alright, I will end this one, but feel free to continue discussing. This is fun!

  18. John August 13, 2009 at 9:41 am #

    Seth- do you have any scouting knowledge of Salcedo, or is the ranking just based on his rookie-league stats? The latter are impressive but if he throws mid-80s, he’s not a serious prospect yet.

  19. mike wants wins August 13, 2009 at 9:44 am #

    Jose is no super star in the making, but I think he’s already shown he is no worse than a MLB backup catcher. That certainty has to move him up the curve, doesn’t it? I’d argue he’s likely better than several starters in the majors right now. Nope, he’ll never be a star at throwing out runners. But, I think he can hit, and he can catch (if not super well, but there are others in the majors that aren’t great at D that catch). That “proof” has to be worth more than ranking in the 30s.

    I think Hughes would have a position, if he was in a different organization, and that would be a corner OF (not a great one, but good enough one). Also, I think RH DH is a role that makes sense for him, not to mention platoon at several other infield positions, or PH off the bench, or whatever. Again, no star, but possible decent 23rd MLB player on a roster.

    I think Valencia is over rated by all of us, because we are so desperate for a 3B to be in this system. He’s been good at each step, but he’s not exactly been young at each step. I hope he’s what some of you all think he is, but I think he’s rated a tad high here. His ceiling just isn’t as high as some other guys on this list.

    Guerra, not sure. I think he’s so young that we can’t think he’s bad yet. But, he’s not been that good since he came here. This ranking seems one of hope as much as it is “fact”. He certainly has a high ceiling, but he also hasn’t shown an ability to harness it.

    That 2008 draft does start to look weak all of a sudden.

    Gibson will be in the top 10, surely.

    Revere makes me nervous. He’s about OBP and speed, yet he’s had leg muscle issues over and over. That should make them nervous (I just wish we could find out if there is ANY chance he could move back to 2B).

    Thanks for the list, Seth.

    • Nils August 13, 2009 at 11:26 am #

      I disagree completely on your Valencia take, while his ceiling isn’t as high as Danny Rams, he has proven he can hit for average and power at a much higher level. Valencia should definately be top 4, no doubt, just look at his numbers

  20. Bill in Sarasota August 13, 2009 at 9:54 am #

    I hold off rating the recent draft picks until mid-season of thier 2nd season. They cannot be traded until then and the sample size is too small (Hunt 2008 Eliz. is the example though Hicks was the exception ).

    Plouffe might only be 23 and his hitting might improve but his 22 errrors is troubling. I can’t see him having value anywhere except SS and 22 errors limits that possibility. Hughes may not have a position but he’s demonstrated in the past year to have a good bat.

  21. Seth August 13, 2009 at 10:05 am #

    Was told by a couple of people that Salcedo throws into the 90s already, and that his stuff is just nasty. Then factor in his age. Maybe a little high. Higher than I would typically go, so we’ll see how he finishes up, and what reports I get on him.

    When a guy’s ceiling is probably backup catcher whose OPS will likely never be over .650, I just don’t get excited. THa’ts not to say he won’t be a quality MLB backup catcher.

    I have the same concern about Revere. Hopefully it’s not a real issue. Knee and leg problems for a speed guy can be alarming. So far no knee surgeries, so that’s good! He’s done a nice job of being more selective… but still little power, although he apparently swings really, really hard!

    • roger August 13, 2009 at 11:20 am #

      Seth, didn’t Revere have surgery (maybe was just a scope) last August?

  22. BB-STC August 13, 2009 at 10:08 am #

    Seth,

    Where would you have placed Ladendorf on this list?

  23. Seth August 13, 2009 at 10:12 am #

    Ladendorf – I would probably give you a range. He’d probably be somewhere between 9 and 16.

  24. DH in Philly August 13, 2009 at 10:21 am #

    Two of the guys I respect most (out of many that I respect) are Seth and Roger. When I read the list, I thougth Seth had rated Tosoni too high, by 10 – 15 spots. Then I read that Roger thought he could have gone higher – even to No. 1! I have to admit that I don’t get the Tosoni appeal, but that’s what makes a market. Different valuations. He seems like just a guy to me – Michael Restovich redux. One thing in his favor is I remember reading a quote from Gardy saying he liked how Tosoni got after it.

  25. TT August 13, 2009 at 10:23 am #

    Bill –

    Plouffe is almost a year younger than any other position player at Rochester. I think Plouffe’s errors are troubling only if they are fielding, as opposed to throwing, errors. A lot of those throwing errors will disappear with a good first baseman at the major league level. I also think you underestimate his bat. It will likely be good enough for second base and maybe third.

  26. mike wants wins August 13, 2009 at 10:23 am #

    Funny you mention swinging hard w/o much power….my son and I were at the PGA practice round yesterday, and we both noticed how the pros don’t swing really, really hard….It’s about the sweet spot and timing (in baseball), as much as it is about bat speed.

  27. Seth August 13, 2009 at 10:30 am #

    DH – Regarding Tosoni, I really see no comparison between he and Restovich. 23 doubles and 13 homers for a 22 year old in AA isn’t too bad. Too many strikeouts, sure. I know the Twins love him. I couldn’t put him at #1, but I do believe he is a strong prospect. The bigger question may be how he gets big league playing time next year or 2011, whose spot will he take? I’m intrigued by how quickly he has been promoted since signing, even with missed time last year. Means that the team is very high on him too.

    And Plouffe is still young, but he’s also been in AAA now for a year and a half. But it’s also important to note that he’s got time to go with his youth. He has options available in 2010 and 2011, so I think it’s wise to remain patient.

  28. Noah August 13, 2009 at 10:44 am #

    I think it is a joke that you have Hicks above Revere, even if Revere is injured, the guy can flat out hit, and the FSL is pitcher friendly.

    • Nils August 13, 2009 at 11:30 am #

      he doesn’t hit for power, has a bad arm and not as good at taking walks as Hicks

      • Noah August 13, 2009 at 3:07 pm #

        Power is so overrated, last time I checked Denard Span had hardly any homers in MiLB and now hes the Twins 3rd best player

      • Noah August 13, 2009 at 3:07 pm #

        Revere will be the next Puckett

  29. Noah August 13, 2009 at 10:46 am #

    I also feel you have too much of a man crush on Morales.

  30. sam August 13, 2009 at 10:52 am #

    is tosoni and winfree about the same players ?

  31. roger August 13, 2009 at 11:11 am #

    DH, my excitement about Tosoni is the rapid progress he has made through the system. Since getting a late start, he really had only played about 45 games above rookie ball (40 at FM last year and a handful at Beloit the year before) before this season at AA. So a slow start in AA could be expected. But like Morales at Beloit, he adjusted to the level of competition and has been very good since the first month of the season. The Twins don’t move players rapidly through the system, yet they have pushed Tosoni which tells me they are very, very high on this young man.

    If we are going to talk about young players, the one to watch is Wander Guillen. He may be the best hitter the Twins have in the DSL and he won’t turn 17 until later this month. Expect he will be in the GCL next year as a 17 year old like Morales was after he was drafted. Obviously, haven’t seen this kid play but it seems he gets a couple hits almost every day on a team with a lot of older guys hitting .200 something!

  32. roger August 13, 2009 at 11:18 am #

    DH, I also am not certain I would rank Tosoni #1. Without spending a lot of time on my rankings (which I will do after the season), it seemed to me that two players to swap would be Hicks and Tosoni. Whether Tosoni should be ranked higher than Ramos, Valencia, Revere and Morales would take more time than I have when posting a comment. Just wanted to clarify that DH, thanks!

  33. Brad August 13, 2009 at 11:31 am #

    Any update on how the Twinks are doing trying to sign the young Dominican SS? Sano is it?

  34. mike wants wins August 13, 2009 at 11:37 am #

    I think MLB is still trying to uncover his age, which implies to me that their tests and his statements don’t match just yet…..as for signing him, almost none of these guys that have signed for big bucks from there have worked out (I read that on ESPN, so it’s 2nd hand and I won’t vouche for its accuracy), so I’m not sure how excited I am either way at this point.

  35. Joe August 13, 2009 at 12:33 pm #

    I think Hermsen should be the top pitching prospect…. maybe a lil high on Tosoni and Angel Morales… other wise a pretty solid list….

  36. Ricky August 13, 2009 at 12:47 pm #

    Alexander Soto and Nick Romero i think could be in the top 50. Soto has decent power potential and Romero is having a good year.

    If Reggie Williams was still a middle infielder he’d probably be higher. What are the plans with him? is he going to remain an outfielder?

  37. Ricky August 13, 2009 at 12:50 pm #

    Another GCL guy with some nice potential is Hyeong-rok Choi.

  38. Bill in Sarasota August 13, 2009 at 12:56 pm #

    Tosoni is a very good defender – covers a lot of ground in the OF and a strong arm.

  39. Seth August 13, 2009 at 1:25 pm #

    Good call on Alex Soto, for sure. He’s been in the 40s the last couple of lists, and he’s shown some decent power, and I think pitchers really like throwing to him.

    Good point also on Reggie Williams. he’s been playing more corner outfield, so that’s worth noting too!

  40. Brooks August 13, 2009 at 2:31 pm #

    Where’s Pedro Guerra??? He’s absolutely killing the DSL. Granted it’s the DSL but he’s gotta get SOME sort of consideration, doesn’t he??????

  41. rosterman August 13, 2009 at 4:00 pm #

    I start thinking about how the AZL roster will play out, the Twins protective 40-man this fall, and who might be snatched in the Rule 5 (and minor league portion) Draft.

    Your Top 10:
    I’m hoping Hicks matures and becomes the player we all wish Delmon Young was. I would still rate Ben revere higher than Hicks or Morales. Partly because of drive and attitude. Jose Morales is equal to Ramos at this point and should be a Twin for 2-3 years, in the elast. Ramos is still two seasons away, as I expect the Twins to have him repeat part of 2010 at AA. I’m curious if the Twins will protect Joe Benson, or if he’ll be snatched away.

    11-20. Is there room for a minor league guy to become a bench bat/DH. If so, maybe Parmelee will get the shot. As heir apaprant to a backup role to Morneau, maybe he;ll be on the bench come 2011. Of will it be Danny Rams, not considered high as a catcher, but he can catch. Doubt if Luke Hughes will get his chance with the Twins. See him being Rule 5ived by someone. Fine crop of pitchers…all seven listed and the two in the Top 10 makes for 9 that the Twins need to find space for in the next two seasons.

    21030. Lots of bubble guys. Tolleson, Singleton or Dinkelman Not room for all in the bigtime (and Toby gardenhire will get a reserve shot, I’m sure). Is Plouffee that backup that will overshadow them all for a couple of seasons> Sadly, don’t see him as the SS of the future. Four mroe pitchers with a good upside to contribute in the majors.

    31-40. Ah, yes. Robbins and Winfree. Now talk about trade bait! Just a promising arm or two.

    41-50. Juan Morillo is a posible keeper, just because of big league experience and his ability to throw hard and fast. The Twins will probably have to 40-man him or he’ll walk.

    The Twins will be saying goodbye to a few folks on the bubble. Will Waldrop and Rainville get drafted, or Matt Fox? Who do they keep as the fifth outfielder: Roberts, Martin or Pridie. Will Erik Lis need to be 40-manned, or can the Twins hope no one grabs him and he becomes 2010’s BVrock peterson. Drew Butera? Will he get an at bat in September?

    Are Jose Lugo and Armando Gabino considered prospects? Cole DeVries?

    Be interesting to see how the Twins system shakes out come spring, and if the Twins make their own grabs or other systems prospects to make up for any possible losses.

    • Jeremy August 13, 2009 at 9:09 pm #

      Seth,

      Speaking of the Rule V, who do you think WILL or MAY be added?

      I think Valencia, Delaney and Tosoni are for sures.

      Depending on the amount of spots left I would say Guerra, Van Mil, Morillo, Singleton, Burnett, and Dinkelman are maybes (in that order).

      Next year will be interesting with the following guys all eligible: Slama, McCardell, Benson, Parmelee, Revere, Bromberg, Hirschfield, Robertson, Tippett. The Twins won’t be able to keep all the pitchers that deserve to be.

    • sam August 14, 2009 at 9:02 am #

      you do not think winfree can be a fifth outfielder?

  42. Seth August 13, 2009 at 4:21 pm #

    Let me try to answer some of these questions:

    Where is Guerra? He’s in the DSL. Again, after Ramon Acosta went the entire DSL season last year without giving up an Earned Run, and his struggles in E-Town this year, I just can’t get too excited about his numbers… yet!! Obviously still worth watching.

    Rosterman, a few things… 1.) I don’t know about drive and attitude. I’ve never heard any negative things about Hicks or Morales. I do know they both have huge upsides and talent. 2.) Joe Benson doesn’t have to be added to the 40 man roster until after the 2010 season, so no worries there. 3.) Can’t imagine Parmelee being ready to contribute off the bench in 2011. Certainly not Rams yet then. 4.) Luke Hughes is on the 40 man roster already, just added last offseason, so unless they take him off, which they won’t, he can’t be lost. 5.) What could the Twins get for Robbins and Winfree?? 6.) Waldrop and Rainville weren’t drafted in the Rule V last year. Rainville certainly wouldn’t this year. Waldrop’s bullpen success might make him a possibility. 7.) Matt Fox has been Rule V eligible the last two years and hasn’t been taken. 8.) Pridie is already on the 40 man, could be removed, and I can’t imagine Roberts or Martin being added. 9.) Erik Lis wasn’t added to the 40 man last year and wasn’t lost. Don’t think he would be this year either. What is the 2010 Brock Peterson? Lis will go to AAA next year and probably hit alright. He just doesn’t have a position. 10.) Butera? He might. It wouldn’t hurt much to add him to the September roster. I doubt it though. 11.) Lugo and Gabino… Maybe Lugo, but only because he’s left-handed, but if Gabino was at all a prospect, don’t you think he would be up by now? 12.) DeVries flies under the radar, but his first half success in AA has to be noted.

    Yes, it will be another interesting offseason to follow the Twins system!!

  43. SHS August 13, 2009 at 5:15 pm #

    As usual great Job Seth

    the one major qualm I have is McCardell below Stuiffbergen

    I don’t think the kid from Netherlands has shown us that much yet, to warrant that position, he doesn’t K anybody…

    where as McCardell us a sure fire #4-5 big league starter IMO.

  44. Tim August 13, 2009 at 6:41 pm #

    Seth, great job, it was fun to read a top prospect list this time of year. I generally agree with the general area where every prospect is listed, except I’d put Morillo at least 20 spots higher. Here’s what I’d put as my top 10:
    1. Aaron Hicks
    2. David Bromberg
    3. Angel Morales
    4. Danny Valencia
    5. Ben Revere
    6. Danny Rams
    7. Wilson Ramos
    8. Rene Tosoni
    9. Joe Benson
    10. Carlos Gutierrez

  45. Blair August 13, 2009 at 9:03 pm #

    Hi Seth, as i sent u my top 30 list the night b4 you published your list, i was happy we were on the same brainwave on most players, as i do follow closely, but prolly not into it as much as you, but i love to follow it nonetheless. Our noteable differences, i had Tippett at 9, and you had him at 45, i think the twins have high hopes for him, and he seems to becoming around pretty well. Hirschfeld, i have at 15, and u just forgot about him, but with his size and his track record, i thought he deserved to be that high. Salcedo, i didnt have that high, but i dismissed him a little bit , cuz i had not heard of him, where as i had Hermsen, who i had at 8. Overall, i think we thought alot alike, and for me i feel validated, LOL, in that i love following the Twins, and you validate alot of things i think. So thanks, love the blog.

  46. Justin Murphy August 13, 2009 at 9:14 pm #

    Seth, I’m wondering, why isn’t Ramon Santana even in the top 50? His OBP is .377. He’s old for Low-A, but I think he could move up soon, no?

  47. TT August 13, 2009 at 9:16 pm #

    “if Gabino was at all a prospect, don’t you think he would be up by now?”

    That Gabino hasn’t been called up is a puzzle. They obviously don’t think he is ready. But if he wasn’t a prospect would he have been added to the 40 player roster?

  48. Seth August 13, 2009 at 9:30 pm #

    Blair, I was shocked that Lanigan got the promotion to Ft. Myers over Tippett because he’s been so good. He doesn’t throw hard, but he just knows how to pitch. Hirschfeld, I would probably have in the low-30s, high 40s? And hey, there is no such thing as a perfect prospect predictor, so make your own list and be proud of it. We can always adjust it, and for me, discussion like this makes it so much more fun.

    Justin Murphy – I just am not into Santana. He’s in his third year in Beloit now. He’s doing well, so I don’t get why he hasn’t moved up to Ft. Myers, especially back when Estarlin de Los Santos was injured.

    TT – I agree… there have been enough opportunities to get GAbino up here. He has pitched well in whatever role they have asked him to pitch in. I’m asking the same thing… why put him on the 40 man if he’s not going to come up?

  49. Gizzy August 15, 2009 at 12:05 pm #

    I feel Chris Parmelee is a Top 3 prospect in are system . The guy is hitting very well in the tuff florida state league , 271 avg 14 hr 64 rbi . His eye keeps improving his ks are dropping. This guy could crack 40 hrs in the big league some day and he doesnt make the top 10 , If he finishes the season strong he will be BA top 100 next year

  50. TT August 16, 2009 at 10:19 pm #

    Gizzy –

    I agree on Parmelee. He is the same age as Revere and Benson and is leading the FSL in both HR and SLG. His K’s have dropped some in the second half, but I am not sure it is statistically significant. That said, I think he belongs on the list of young Twins outfielders with Revere, Hicks, Morales and Benson.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Twins Morning Doinks : Baseball Digest - August 14, 2009

    […] Seth Stohs posted his updated Top 50 Twins Prospects list. It’s awesome looking at prospect lists and Seth’s has a lot of interesting names. Most […]

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