also available at www.SethSpeaks.net –
As the Twins 2009 season came to an end just last night, it is likely that the Twins front office will nearly immediately turn their attention to the 2010 season. There are a ton of decisions that GM Bill Smith and his staff need to make this offseason. In conjunction with TwinsCentric.com and its Offseason GM Handbook, we are look at a series of What Would YOU Do blog entries. We have considered what to do with Orlando Cabrera and with Joe Nathan. Today, I thought it would be appropriate to have a discussion on what the Twins should do as it relates to starting pitcher Carl Pavano.
Pavano came to the Twins in early August after the Twins placed a waiver claim on him and the Twins and Indians were able to agree to a Player to be Named Later (that would become Yohan Pino). At the time, he was 9-8 with a 5.37 ERA in 21 starts for Cleveland. He provided that Twins something that they needed at that time, a veteran starter that they knew could pitch every fifth day. To say that Pavano performed to expectations may be an understatement. In 12 starts for the Twins, he went 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA. Of his 12 starts, he went seven innings in five of them, and at least six innings in nine of those games. Seven of the 12 starts were classified as quality starts. He fit in well with the Twins. He was willing to pitch on short rest late in the season. He saved his best stuff for his Game 3 start against the Yankees.
He isn’t overpowering. But when he is on, he hits spots and gets a lot of movement on his pitches. He was second in the league in fewest walks per nine innings. He is a solid, veteran pitcher, and with concerns after Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey going into next year, the team will want a veteran around.
Many (myself included) believe that the Twins biggest need may be a top of the line starting pitcher, a real ace. Carl Pavano is not that. He is a #3 or #4 type of pitcher.
Pavano will turn 34 years old in January, so he is far from old. He just missed throwing 200 innings by 2/3 of an inning. However, he made 33 starts this year. It was the first time he had made more than 17 starts since 2004. He had made 31 and 32 started in 2003 and 2004 for Florida.
Pavano signed a 1 year, $1.5 million contract, with incentives, with Cleveland. He is likely to get a substantial raise.
I think there is a general feeling among Twins fans that the team should consider bringing Pavano back. But the caveat seems to always be the same, “if the dollars and the years make sense.”
So what do you think? First, should the Twins attempt to bring back Carl Pavano back in 2010? If so, what makes sense? How many years, and how many dollars would you offer? What would your Twins starting day rotation look like? If you would like to share your thoughts, please click here.
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This is another of many, many decisions that the Twins General Manager Bill Smith will have to make now that the Twins playoff run is complete. John Bonnes (Twins Geek), Parker Hageman (Over the Baggy), Nick Nelson (Nick’s Twins blog) and myself have put together the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. In its pages, we will put the reader in the role of Twins GM. The four of us will act as advisers. We will provide you with 137 pages worth of information to help you work through your offseason. We discuss the Twins internal free agents, look at the 40 man roster and options to be added, possible trade targets and free agent options. We will review the Joe Mauer contract situation, the #2 spot in the order, and all of the Twins potential arbitration scenarios. Finally, we will each present you with a blueprint, our own recommendation of eight to ten ideas to improve the Twins in 2010. Darren “Doogie” Wolfson wrote the foreword for us. If you are at all interested in this, be sure to go to www.TwinsCentric.com where you can purchase an electronic book (all 137 pages) for just $9.95. If you’re even just a little bit intrigued, still check out that web site where you can also receive a Free Sample of approximately 1/3 the book. Of course, if you have any questions or comments, you can e-mail me, or e-mail TwinsCentric@gmail.com.
SethSpeaks.net 
I would offer Pavano a two year deal totally 14 million. 1st year guaranteed and the second based on 1st year incentives.
Punto wasn’t thinking on the base paths just like Gomez in Game 2. Even little leaguers know better.
However, Gardy likes aggressive baserunning and “his players” follow his lead. Gardy can’t even get Punto to stop sliding into 1st base.
Smart baserunning is one of the little things and the Twins don’t have enough payroll to not to do all of the little things well.
It was a great run while it lasted.
Pavano? No!
Get an Ace, overpay for Rich Harden.
Harden, Blackburn, Baker, Slowey, Duensing (sp?)
Not bad!
With Peavey playing for the White Sox and the stable of solid pitchers in Det, We need a #1 guy to lead the rotation.
Looks good on paper until Harden gets hurt, and we will go 2/3’s of a season with Perkins and Duensing
Harden is going to get Burnett money.
It’s not realistic for the Twins to sign him.
No way Harden gets Burnett money. I have yet to hear from anyone who knows (ESPN, MLB Network, etc…) who says he is going to get Burnett money.
Nowhere close to Burnett money, less years, less money. Harden is the biggest injury risk starter out there (besides maybe Hampton)
No. I want an ace type, and I want them to spend the money/players to get it done. They have three pitchers that can give them quality starts in half their games (or more) in Baker, Blackburn and Slowey. They have 2-3 guys that can be the back of the rotation. They need a legit starting pitcher.
One IF there. IF they aren’t confident in Slowey’s health, they should sign Pavano. However, I’d want no more than 2 years, and no more than 10-12MM.
They NEED a 3B, SS, 2B, and 2 starters and to sign Mauer. Giving 5-8MM per year to a number 4-5 starter doesn’t fit their budget, unless it doubles.
I want want an ace too.
However, the priority is to resign Mauer. After Mauer, there’s not going to be much left, certainly not enough for an Ace.
Resigning Pavano to a reasonable contract (5-7 million for one or two years) is probably the max left in the budget.
Starters: Baker, Blackburn, Slowery, Pavano, and Duensing.
AAA Starters: Liriano, Manship, Swarzek
Bill, if that’s all they do, keep this year’s team in place, we will be looking at 85 wins again next year. That is unacceptable with Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Span, and Cuddeyer in your lineup.
not really much out there for ace’s. if you can sign harden great or pavano ok, but our pitching should be ok next yr.
the main thing is to get a set lineup without utility guys playing every day. move cuddy to 3b and get a real ss & 2b. get some bench help, i mean real major league guys not aaa guys!!
I’d like to see Pavano back, even if he is only a #4 starter…who can occasionally strike out 9 in a game.
Here’s my take–the Twins do need an ace. Harden’s not an ace. He might have ace stuff, but its hard to be an ace when you’re on the DL. Blackburn and Pavano seem to have ace type makeup, but #4 stuff. Big Spot Scott Baker is anything but in my book. Slowey could be a solid #2.
Why not trade Baker (and a couple other pieces) for a year of Roy Halladay? Halladay, Slowey, Blackburn, Pavano would be a good start on a rotation.
If Pavano is indeed a Type B free agent, offer arbitration. If he accepts, sign the deal 4-6 million probably, if he doesn’t take it, try to sign Lackey or Harden. Lackey will cost the team its #1 pick but not signing Pavano will make that pick up later.
Conventional wisdom is to pay the money for an ace in the rotation. I don’t think the twins can pull that off via a trade or signing a free agent, because they don’t have the extra players, nor the extra money after signing Mauer. If we have 5-6 middle of the rotation guys for next year, I would take that if we can keep M&M, Kubes, Cuddy, DSpan. Position players don’t break down as often as pitchers, and if you invest $15mil in one starter with not much at the back of the rotation, you’re screwed if that one starter gets injured. So I think signing a guy like Pavano to 6-8 mil a year for 2-3 years makes sense (if he would take it).
The money that everyone is talking about here is way too much. Why would the Twins give him 5-8 million guaranteed. Wow!
If we’re going to invest that kind of money – let’s try to upgrade to a much better pitcher. I don’t want Livan Hernandez x 2!
I would not give big money or years to Rich Harden, and I just don’t think he’ll get Burnett money. Way too risky. But I can’t help but wonder if other #1 types of pitchers could be available.
I concur with those who say offer him arbitration. That’s a given. Worst case, he accepts and signs a one year deal so the dollars aren’t too big a deal. Otherwise, I would make him a two year, fair-to-low price ($10-11 million, maybe an option year). If he takes it, it’s not a burden, if not, maintain contact with him throughout the offseason and wish him well.
I can’t help but wonder if these guys would be available…
1. Brandon Webb – one year left on a deal if the D-Backs pick up his option (which they already said they would)
2. Dan Haren – pretty hefty contract with a few years remaining
3. Matt Cain – sounds again like they are looking for a big bat and would move a pitcher to accomodate
4. Roy Halladay – no chance the Twins are in on him
5. Tim Hudson/Javier Vazquez – Atlanta has about 7 quality SP – not to mention that they have fallen out of favor with 2B Kelly Johnson
6. Josh Johnson – Florida typically likes to dump their good SP before they get too expensive – and I think they are already bickering about a long-term deal – Minnesota boy!
Webb would be nice, maybe they would want Ramos, Revere and some young pitchers?
Hudson is probably attainable.
I don’t want Haren
Haladay, Cain and Johnson require blue chippers we just don’t have
I doubt Pavano will be a Type B because he only pitched 34 innings in 2008.
Toronto wants a boatload for Halladay. It’s not realistic for the Twins to meet that demand because in two years if not sooner they need to replace a few position players with prospects from the farm system (just like Span replaced Hunter).
I believe Cuddyer has one year left on his contract.
With no salary cap, the Twins are at a major disadvantage vs NY, Boston, and other major mkt teams. They can’t mortgage the farm system without impacting their future. I think signing the Int’l prospects this past year is the best approach instead of signing large ticket free agents.
Remember, Morneau, Slowery, and Neshek are returning next year.
I wrote on my blog almost a month ago regarding a post that was made by MLBrumors.com regarding the status of Carlos Zambrano. If the Twins would take on Zambrano’s contract, I wrote that the Twins should trade Kubel straight up for Zambrano. I am a huge Kubel fan, but if the Twins could land Zambrano and Delmon could continue to improve, then I believe it would be worth it. I wrote why the Twins would do the deal and why the Cubs would do the deal on my blog. The rotation would look like this: Zambrano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing and would allow the Twins to shop Perkins and/or Liriano – maybe for JJ Hardy??
No way I trade Kubel for Zambrano. That would not be a smart move. Zambrano is on the downside of his career and his attitude would not fit in well at all.
“Delmon could continue to improve,” I wasn’t aware he had improved…
Zambrano is WAY to expensive, and he is old and not too good anymore.
What does Pavano bring that some random average guy doesn’t? Pavano will want $8MM plus per year, for half or less of his starts to be quality. I don’t get the love for him (unless you think things will magically change for him next year).
The Twins were 11th in the AL in pitching ERA. 11th, and you want to bring back the same staff? Their starters were 12th of 14 teams. 12th, with an ERA of 4.84 (while facing Cleveland and KC and Chicago and Detroit – teams that were ALL in the bottom half of the AL in runs scored!).
They need 2 new starting pitchers, and Liriano and Perkins are NOT it. Pavano may or may not be it, but his ERA with the Twins was 4.64 He faced Detroit three times (10th in runs scored this year), KC four times (13th in runs scored this year), TX twice (7th in runs scored this year), CLE twince (8th in runs scored this year) and Toronto (6th in runs scored this year). So, he faced three average teams in runs scored, and two bad teams in runs scored. It’s not like he dominated, it’s not like he was consistently good (or consistently bad, like Liriano was).
So, if you can get him cheap (and it doesn’t interfere with signing Mauer), you might do it. If you need to pay him much money at all, you can probably use Deunsing in his place for a lot less money.
Delmon has not improved, so I’m not sure how he’d continue to improve. Counting on Delmon is risky at best, and foolish at worst. It’s possible that he gets better, no doubt, but there is no evidence he’s getting better at all yet.
The last 6-8 weeks of the season was not evidence that Delmon was getting better?
It’s hard to say that Delmon has not improved over last season. He had a similar average as he did last year (.284 compared to .290) and he hit 2 more HRs in 180 fewer at bats. It will be pretty hard for Delmon not to improve if he would get consisten at bats – that is the main reason he struggled for a good portion of the year until Morneau got hurt and he knew he would be playing every day. People tend to forget that he is the second youngest player on this team and he would be the youngest player on the Rochester Red Wings team (Danny Valencia is almost an entire year older than Delmon).
Not really, no. He looked better in the 2nd half of last year also. Those last few weeks by Young are a small sample size (that wasn’t all that good, actually). He had 1 HR in September, placing him tied for 15th in the AL in HRs in September among those that played LF. He was also 15th in OPS in September among AL Left Fielders. That doesn’t even address his fielding and throwing.
If you think he was good this year, don’t go to fangraphs and look at his value stats….you’ll be disappointed.
Oh yeah, I forgot. I’m sure that Buster Olney will be covering some guys personal website and talk about his fangraphs. Does Peter Gammons cover that, too? Maybe MLB Network tonight will focus on all these cool stats everyone throws out.
I’m sure Bill Smith is looking at his Fangraphs to determine what he is going to do this offseason with Delmon. Never mind that he, along with Kubel and Cuddyer, carried this team the last 6 months of the season.
Kunza, how did a guy that was 15th among AL Left Fielders in OPS in September (I think he had 8 RBI, tied for 92nd in the AL for that month) (and was a bad defender) carry this team?
morneau; 14m
nathan; 11.25m
mauer; 12.5m
cuddy; 8.5m
punto; 4m
kubel; 4.1m
baker; 3m
rausch; 2.9m
total; $60.25 m
if they resign mauer you’d think that would add about 8m on to this. something will have to give. nathan and cuddy both could bring in some good players and save 20m, which we need. nathan looks to be slipping and cuddy will be hard pressed to repeat this yr. cuddy would be a perfect fit in atlanta (escobar) and maybe nathan would fill a hole for the phillies not sure what they have to trade???
I couldn’t agree more!
hey ya’ll, this post has nothing to do with Delmon Young… we’ll cover that at a different time… in the meantime, go to http://www.TwinsCentric.com and get your Free Sample of the Offseason GM Handbook, or maybe your $9.95 e-book! 🙂 All of that is covered as well! 🙂
And yes, I’m definitely a Delmon guy still… but this is about Pavano and that decision.
Lots of non-fancy stats (including ranks for the whole AL, while teams had scrubs up, and ranked againes C, CF, 2B, SS also):
RBI in September: 8 – 92nd overall in the AL
HR in September: 1 -101st overall in the AL
Walks in September: 2 – 165st overall in the AL
Hits in September: 49th overall in the AL
BA in September: 59th overall in the AL
I agree GGG. Cuddy is the perfect trade candidate given the season he had this year. I blogged a while back that they should try to get Vasquez from Atlanta for him, but I am a big Escobar fan as well. The one problem I wrote is that Cuddy is one of Gardy’s favorites and we’ve seen in the past that Gardy will not let his guy’s get away (see Punto and last offseason).
Sorry Seth, he asked, I answered. I’ll stop on teh DY posts (and my posts are about his past, not his future here) until you bring him up.
You make it sound like you “won” -hardly
The Twins have addressed their bullpen during this season with Rauch. That unit pitched good down the stretch. They also have plenty of relief candidates ready to step in if need be.
The rotation could use a starter or 2. I like the idea of bringing Pavano back on a 2 year 10-14 million contract. I like the idea of trading for a pitcher, but how many prospects do we want to trade? I can see us being players for both Hardy and Uggla. Maybe an expanded deal for Uggla and Josh Johnson.
I see the offseason shaping up as the Twins signing a starting pitcher to no more than a what we are suggesting for Pavano, extending Mauer, trading for Uggla\Hardy or oither IF and signing another one…..even if the other one was Cabrera if the money was right.
I think the biggest issues with last season were the bullpen, rotation injuries and ineffectiveness, and the Middle IF\ 3b when Crede was hurt.
I think Delmon is beginning to improve. Remember his mother passed this year and he did not look overmatched against the Yanks. maybe a little too aggressive at bat….
If the money is right, then he is a great back of the rotation signing.
BTW, Pavano does grade to a “B”. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com scroll down to the Elias rankings.
It would be great if Pavano will be a Type B.
How is Washburn not a B but Pavano and Perkins are?
You have to sign pavano. How many #1’s are out there and at what price?
I disagree with some people who say we don’t have much money left after we resign Mauer. The Twins will have around $100 million available for payroll in 2010 (http://rubechat.kfan.com/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=46388#p863253). By my rough payroll estimate they have $78 million in payroll for next year which leaves them $22 million to improve this team. There is lots of room available to sign a guy like Pavano or perhaps even a better guy like Hall or Bedard.
Role Player Status Salary ($M)
C Mauer Contract $12.500
1B Morneau Contract $14.000
2B Casilla Serfdom $0.425
3B Valencia Serfdom $0.425
SS Punto Contrct $4.000
RF Cuddyer Contract $8.500
CF Span Serfdom $0.425
LF Young Arbitration $2.200
DH Kubel Contract $4.100
BKUP MI Harris Arbitration $1.500
BKUP CI Tolbert Serfdom $0.425
4TH OF Gomez Arbitration $1.800
BKUP C Morales Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 1 Baker Contract $3.000
STARTER 2 Blackburn Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 3 Liriano Arbitration $2.400
STARTER 4 Duensing Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 5 Slowey Serfdom $0.425
Closer Nathan Contract $11.25
RH SETUP Neshek Arbitration $1.000
LH SETUP Mijares Serfdom $0.425
MR Crain Arbitration $2.000
MR Rauch Contract $2.900
LONG MR Bonser Arbitration $1.000
LONG MR Guerrier Arbitration $2.500
TOTAL SALARY $78.48 $78.48
PROJECTED 100
AVAILABLE $21.53
Cut Liriano, add $2.4 MM available. Cut Harris, $1.5MM added. Sign Mauer to extension (including tearing up last year of deal), $7.5MM deducted from available. That leaves $17.4 MM to sign a starting pitcher, 3B, ss. They should be able to fill one to two of those with that money.
ooops, it leaves more than that….
offer him arbitration. If he accepts it, which he won’t, fine sign him. Else, take a supplementary 1st round pick.
Even if twins don’t sign a top of the rotation pitcher. Take the pick, choose a high school pitcher and hope for the best. Use the money saved wisely.
I’m guessing Mauer will be closer to $25million per year.
I believe $100 million is a little aggressive/optimistic. I think $90 million is probably more realistic. Leaving some room for a mid-season move.
Above estimate is $78 million w/o Cabrera, Crede, Pavano, or possibly ripping up Mauer’s last year of his contract.
I don’t see the budget for a front line ace. At best it’s going to be Pavano or Washburn if either is reasonable as discussed above.
i will be very, very, very surprised if they go over 90m on payroll. they will fill the seats for the first couple years anyway so imo 75-85 is more likely.
The way I see it, our most valuable and expendable options are:
Joe Nathan- more valuable then expendable, but he is getting older, and is expensive. Better to trade him earlier than too late.
Wilson Ramos/ Jose Morales- Mauer is the obvious starter, one or the other can be back up. Ramos is probably more valuable
Ben Revere- We already have a stocked outfield with Kubel, Delmon, Span, Gomez, Cuddy and prospects Pridie, Tosoni, Hicks and Parmelee. I only pick out Revere because of his perceived value to other teams.
Perkins- Clubs see him as a #3/4 lefty, but he doesn’t have much upside and isn’t necessarily any better than Duensing. We have a plethera of end of the rotation types, and we need to trade some of them
In 2007 the payroll was $73 million. Dave St. Peter said that revenue would increase $40-50 million in the new stadium, of which half would be put towards payroll (http://www.startribune.com/local/18217239.html). Assuming a small revenue increase of %3 per year since 2003 you get $100 million in payroll ($73 for 2007 + $7 Million in natural growth + $20 Million Stadium). Show me where my math is wrong and I will accept a lower payroll assumption but the Twins have $100 million in payroll capacity for next year. Anything below that should be scrutinized for cheapness.
If it is $25MM, can one team pay 25% of its payroll to one player? Can a team with a $75MM payroll field a competitive team if two players are making $39MM of the payroll (M&M)? How about $100MM with three players making half of the total?
No more than 1 year for Pavano at no more than $5 mill, I know he pitched a great game yesterday but he had a 5+ ERA and this is the first year he has pitched most of the season in how long???
The Twins will not sign Harden, nor should they, considering his injury history. Some stupid team, see Mets, that looses out on Lackey will give him crazy money.
I’d hate to see him go but IMO this is the year to trade Cudyer or Kubel. Would Kubel and a couple prospects net us Cain?
i think the Twins should try to sign Pavano. He gives them a veteran pitcher to go with the long list of younger guys. After Baker and, maybe, Blackburn, the Twins are going to be doing auditions next spring for places in the rotation. Signing Pavano makes it much more likely they will end up with five solid starters. You know someone will get hurt and someone else will not live up to their potential. There will be plenty of opportunities for Pavano to pitch.
That said, I don’t think pitching is the Twins priority in the off-season. They need a number two hitter. That would mean more runners on base for Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer to knock in.
Second, shortstop or third base are the only fielding positions open to fill that need. Punto, Tolbert and Harris don’t belong there. And Casilla may not even belong in the major leagues. I doubt Plouffe is going to start his career that high in the batting order and he probably doesn’t fit the role anyway. It becomes less of an issue if they sign Cabrera, but he isn’t really an ideal hitter in that spot either.