Confidence Rankings

4 Feb

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net

I was chatting with Travis Aune of Travis Twins Talk this morning, and he asked me for what percent confidence I have in a couple of things happening, so I gave my opinion… Today, I’m going to post my Confidence rankings and ask you to weigh in with your thoughts. Joe Christensen blogged that the Twins are in a good position on a couple of players whose names have been in Twins’ minds and ears all offseason.

How confident are you that the Twins will sign Orlando Hudson?

Seth Confidence – 52%

Why? Well, it sounds like he is deciding between the Twins and the Nationals. So, he has to decide if he wants the extra million dollars and signs with the Nationals, or if he wants to play for a winning team. If he chooses the money, then that says a lot and maybe the Twins should be happy he didn’t sign with them. That’s why I have them slightly over 50% You also have to factor in that there still could be a third or fourth team quietly in the discussion as well.

Ramifications – Nick Punto would move to 3B and split time with Brendan Harris. The team would have to trade Alexi Casilla for whatever they could get for him.

How confident are you that the Twins will sign Jarrod Washburn?

Seth Confidence – 82%

Why? Like I wrote the other day, his name hasn’t gone away for a couple of years. I have been told that at least one high ranking Twins official really likes Washburn and thinks he could provide a lot of value to the Twins. And, now he has no other options. The Twins should offer a minor league deal and if he makes the team, he can make a base of a million with incentives for another million.

Ramifications – If it is a minor league deal, the team would not have to make an immediate move. However, if he makes the opening day roster, he would have to be added to the 40 man roster, so at that time, the Twins would have to release someone or trade something like Glen Perkins for whatever they can get for him.  

How confident are you that the Twins will extend Joe Mauer before Opening Day?

Seth Confidence – 99.85973%

Why? It’s going to happen. Mauer doesn’t want the distraction. The Twins don’t want the distraction. Mark Rosen will likely be proven right. I am just leaving a small percentage that it might not happen just because.

Ramifications – Twins fans everyone will rejoice!

Imagine if the Twins land Orlando Hudson and sign Joe Mauer. They already improved with the acquisitions of JJ Hardy, Jim Thome and Clay Condrey. Would it be an absolutely perfect offseason for the Twins? And would people FINALLY start giving Bill Smith some credit?

How confident are you? If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to e-mail me or leave them in the Comments section.

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18 Responses to “Confidence Rankings”

  1. Brady February 4, 2010 at 12:45 pm #

    Of course it wouldn’t be a perfect offseason in many minds, but would it be a great one? Absolutely.

  2. mike wants wins February 4, 2010 at 1:04 pm #

    Um, if a guy in his 30’s takes less money you think that makes him a better person/ballplayer? That seems insane to me. He should take the money. Who knows how many more contracts he’ll get.

    I agree with your percentages on all three. I think they will sign Washburn. I think he’ll be their 5th best starter, and we’ll all wonder why they would spend money there for a guy that would be replacable for the minimum. Of course, last year I thought he was good….until I started looking at the numbers for the last four years, when I started to get nervous about how good he is.

  3. Bryce February 4, 2010 at 1:14 pm #

    Bill Smith will get credit…but it can all blow up in his face if he goes ahead and signs Washburn for any amount of money. Frankly, $1 spent on Washburn is $1 foolishly spent.

  4. MrHockey February 4, 2010 at 1:47 pm #

    Don’t forget Pavano–he counts.

  5. Gopher Nation February 4, 2010 at 2:04 pm #

    I agree with your first and last percentage but I wouldn’t think Washburn would be that high. We have so many options for the 5th starter that are much cheaper and younger. I am really looking forward to giving Liriano another chance. Hudson would really help us and I agree with Punto moving over to third. Would the Twins consider moving Harris rather than Casilla? Harris signed a 2 year $3.2 million contract so not sure if that would hinder or help a trade. I am still hoping Casilla will figure it out eventually and is 4 years younger.

  6. JimCrikket February 4, 2010 at 2:09 pm #

    Looking like Hudson’s percentage has skyrocketed since you posted, Seth.

    I don’t have the same issues with bringing in Washburn that others do, as long as the best 5 pitchers are in the rotation when they break camp. If he isn’t one of the five, trade him or cut him loose, but some legitimate competition in ST for rotation spots isn’t a bad thing.

    Likewise, I wouldn’t give Casilla away for nothing until later in ST, if then. Let’s see how Harris, Tolbert, Punto look compared to Casilla… and let’s see who pulls a hammy.

    As for “Would it be an absolutely perfect offseason for the Twins? And would people FINALLY start giving Bill Smith some credit?”… I say 5%. Nothing ever goes as planned and when something goes wrong, people around here will jump all over Smith for not anticipating it happening. Gotta have something to whine about!

  7. Jesse H February 4, 2010 at 2:44 pm #

    I disagree with your last percentage. If Joe Mauer and the Twins didn’t want this to be a distration then they would have signed before TwinsFest. They had November, December, and January to get a contract done and their inability to do so made TwinsFest less about the 2010 Twins Season and Target Field but instead shifted focus to Mauer and his contract. Back in a chat on 12/4 we had a discussion about this:

    ——————————————————–
    12:53 [Comment From Jesse: ]
    Joe Mauer Predicition – He will either be announced by Twinsfest as having signed or he will not sign with the team. There are no tricky issues to work out so either the negotiation is amicable with Joe accepting a discount of sorts but the Twins actually offering market LENGTH contracts, unlike Hunter (Market: 5 years, Twins: 3 years) Santana (Market: 6 years, Twins: 4 years) Blake (Market: 3 years, Twins: 2 years). If it isn’t done by Twinsfest then it looks like either side will not back down on those 2 issues and Joe will be in Boston next year. Thoughts? Specifically on what sort of process would occur that would delay a contract until spring training.
    Friday December 4, 2009 12:53 Jesse

    12:54 Based on injuries to Santana and Hunter in year 2 of X years, the twins look pretty wise, so I don’t think offering less years is a bad strategy. That said, I think it gets finalized right before Twins Fest, whatever it is.

    The only thing will probably be the # of years, you’re right. Dollar-wise, I am sure the Twins will be just fine.
    ———————————————————–
    http://www.coveritlive.com/index.php?option=com_altcaster&task=siteviewaltcast&altcast_code=0b86d4a5b2&height=550&width=470

    We are a week after TwinsFest and all we have are a bunch of shot-down rumors. The only thing that appears to have changed is that now your prediction is he will sign before TwinsFest because now you predict Spring Training ;-). I would put the prediction at %49 now and it will drop to %25 at Season start and %5 at season end.

  8. Don Stevens February 4, 2010 at 2:55 pm #

    Initially, I was disappointed to see Seth’s percentage so high on Washburn because I’m not sure we need him. But then I saw Seth suggest a minor-league deal which is a no-lose situation for the Twins if he takes it. It’s hard to believe the Twins are the only suitors though? And, “you can’t have enough pitching”. On another note, OHudson may not think of taking the extra $ from the Nats as his only consideration. Would he not be eligible for post-season money w/ a consistant winner, like the Twins, competing for the pennant? While Nick is good security, I would rather keep Casilla’s potential.

  9. mike wants wins February 4, 2010 at 3:01 pm #

    I’ll give smith “some” credit if they sign Mauer and add Hudson, youbetcha. Not convinced on the Hardy/Gomez deal yet. I do like that he has tried to address the bullpen before the year is 2/3 over this year, but you have to wonder about how much money is tied up there, if you end up with Harris/Punto/Tolbert/Punto playing much, when that money could be in Hudson or others.

    And, it’s pretty hard to forgive him for the two terrible trades he made in his first year. He has yet to make up for those, in my eyes.

  10. Dave February 4, 2010 at 3:14 pm #

    I am perfectly willing to give Smith full credit when he makes intelligent, aggressive decisions. (In that case I will even keep quiet about the Nickster.) On the whole, he’s had a fabulous off-season. The only significant downside would be if Smithe acquires Washburn, a pitcher we simply don’t need. As for Joe, I’ll believe Joe is signed when he signs. To be fair, if there ever was anything to this “it all depends on whether the Twins improve themselves,” that concern should have been put to rest.PS I hope Kubel doesn’t blow out a knee just so Thome can DH.

  11. BB-STC February 4, 2010 at 3:45 pm #

    mlbtraderumors.com

  12. BB-STC February 4, 2010 at 3:46 pm #

    mlbtraderumors.com says that the Orlando hudson deal is almost done for the Twins…I hope they are right.

  13. Gamer February 4, 2010 at 4:51 pm #

    OK, I am so excited about O Hud, that I cannot work.

    Is Castilla out of options?

    Also, I think that Punto may become the 5th OF, primarily as a back up to Span(sy) if he gets hurt.

  14. SHS February 4, 2010 at 5:10 pm #

    Signing Hudson

    70%

    Signing Washburn

    40%

    Re-Signing Joe Mauer

    90%

  15. Bryce February 4, 2010 at 5:38 pm #

    I wouldn’t have a problem on minor league contract to Washburn if, as stated earlier, it was open competition and the best 5 pitchers headed North. But if Washburn gets any sort of a contract, rest assured, Gardy is gonna bring up the veteran in the 5th spot. Liriano to pen, Duensing/Manship/Swarzak to AAA. If Hudson signs, is it gonna be an actual platoon situation at 3B? I say no way–Harris doesn’t seem to be a favorite of Gardy’s and we all know his man-crush on Little Nicky.

  16. Matt February 4, 2010 at 6:26 pm #

    twins sign Orlando Hudson according to MLBTRADERUMORS.com

  17. Bill in Sarasota February 4, 2010 at 11:29 pm #

    Star Tribune just announced the Hudson signing a few minutes ago.

    Fantastic!

  18. gilby 1524 February 5, 2010 at 12:40 pm #

    Can’t see the Twins signing Jarrod Washburn in my estimation he is in the sunset of his career It would be a shame to have him take a roster spot. He doesn’t seem to be a leader by nature and I think that is one thing the pitching staff could use. I think the “The Horse” Joe Nathan is old enough to be a leader but can’t see him in that roll. We need someone who can contribute on the field and off. I wouldn’t be too eager to make a pitching trade at this point in time.

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