Delmon Young Projections

31 Mar

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net

2009 was a tremendously difficult season for Delmon Young, on the field and off. Young left the team in June as his mother was losing her battle with cancer. When he left, he was hitting .300. His mother passed away, and when he came back, Young really struggled, striking out more than every other at bat. He ended up finding more time on the bench. But then in September, he was back in the lineup every day and really contributed mightily to the Twins push to the playoffs.

During the offseason, it has been over-chronicled that Young lost almost 30 pounds. He looks great, and is healthy. More important, teammates talk about how he is a much better teammate, much more relaxed. The biggest thing I take from it is his prolonged dedication. That illustrates a strong commitment. He can go out and play and know that he has done everything he could to put himself in a good situation.

Of course, we don’t know what he will do when the real games start. His spring training batting average isn’t real strong, but he does have several extra base hits. His defense was never his strong suit, but he is not as bad as many people think. As for what happens after the 2010 season, it will certainly be interesting. If he has another year similar to his past two with the Twins, the team may choose not to offer him arbitration because he would likely get a raise to over $4 million. If he has the type of year that we all hope he is capable of, well, then his arbitration number could be closer to $8-9 million. If he gets off to a slow start, could he be platooning by midseason? I mean, Jim Thome does need at bats, and Jason Kubel can play left field. Depending upon all of that, will the Twins trade him and bring up Ben Revere at league minimum in 2011? These are the tough decisions that will have to be made… after the season… not now.

For now, how about we do a group projection for Delmon Young’s 2010 season. Will it be disappointing again, or will he take a large step forward? Below, you will find his 2009 statistics, followed by my projections for Delmon Young’s 2010 season.

2009 Stats –

.284/.308/.425, with 16 doubles, 2 triples, 12 home runs, 60 RBI and 2 SB.

Seth’s 2010 Projection –

.309/.344/.471 with 33 doubles, 5 triples, 21 home runs, 82 RBI and 18 SB.

What do you think? What are your Delmon Young 2010 Projections? Leave projections and comments here.

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29 Responses to “Delmon Young Projections”

  1. dwthegreat March 31, 2010 at 10:48 pm #

    Very good line Seth. I as well see Delmon having a break out year.

  2. Jesse H March 31, 2010 at 11:53 pm #

    Delmon was hitting .300 in MaY but it was an empty .300 with only a .350 slugging %. I know he is young still and all the positives are there but I think he is who he is at this point and 2010 will look pretty much like 2008 and 2009.

  3. Bryce April 1, 2010 at 12:25 am #

    I would be STUNNED to see Delmon get to 18 SBs.

  4. The Schlepp April 1, 2010 at 1:12 am #

    I think too bold Seth. In all of our dreams Delmon hits those numbers.

    .290 Avg, .320 OBP, 18 HR, and 12 SB.

    That looks more realistic, but if we are dreaming than I go with you.

  5. peterS April 1, 2010 at 4:04 am #

    .292/.311/.423 15hr 69RBI

  6. peterS April 1, 2010 at 4:06 am #

    and better defense than most expect

  7. Jack Steal April 1, 2010 at 7:06 am #

    Seth,

    Pretty optimistic numbers for Delmon Young who has failed to live up to expectations since being traded for Matt Garza in 2007. I actually hope Young has a good year but would not be oppossed to bringing up Ben Revere in 2011 to play CF and moving Span to LF where he is fantastic defensively. Not to mention paying Young $8-9 million dollars in arbitration gives me a stomach ache. Here are my projections for young in 2010

    .290/.320/.450 with 25 doubles, 2 triples, 14 home runs, 75 RBI and 10 SB. His plate discipline is not going to improve that much since last season.

  8. Nathan Gau April 1, 2010 at 7:17 am #

    I’d be thrilled if he came close to that number you posted. Based on his spring, I think his OBP could approach respectability this season, which will help the other numbers immensely… 21 HR though? Wow… think about that… Kubel, Mauer, Young, Morneau… all hit .300 with 20 plus home runs…

  9. JimCrikket April 1, 2010 at 8:53 am #

    I really don’t see the Twins offering arbitration, but if he’s having a very good year at the AS Break, I could see them trying to ink him to a 2-3 year deal that might result in a more reasonable annual salary. Then it’s just a matter of whether he’d take it or not. I think you’re overestimating the steals, Seth… I simply don’t think the Twins are going to do a lot of base stealing this year, with the sticks in their lineup (tho admittedly, nobody will tell Delmon “don’t steal, you’ll just take the bat out of Punto’s hands.”)

    I’ll say .295/.340/.460 with 30 doubles, 3 triples, 22 HR, 96 RBI and 8 SB

  10. Lenny Green April 1, 2010 at 9:07 am #

    Seth- those numbers seem incredibly optimistic; I have to get a pair of those rose (or red and blue) tinted glasses! I’m very hopeful he’ll build on last years #’s, but even a line of .290 Avg, .330 OBP, 14 HR, and 8 SB would have to be considered a success. I just don’t see how he ever lives up to what his potential seemed 4-5 years ago; in fact watching him today I have no idea how those projections were ever made.

  11. Joe April 1, 2010 at 9:09 am #

    Very Optimistic. If he does that the send him away arguments will finally disappear. He does need to steal some more bases.

    Just to put in comparison to the PECOTA projection

    .290/.340/.432 15 HR 77 RBI and 9SB. 25 doubles 2 triples and 67 runs scored. This is also in just 554 at bats.

    Remember he only had 416 at bats in 2009.
    2007 and 2008 he had over 623 each year.

  12. tmils April 1, 2010 at 9:22 am #

    People keep forgettting how young he is because this is his fifth season in the majors. If he would have signed with the twins he would have a year or two in AAA. I agree that this year is a crossroads for him but he is a bust by no means yet.

  13. Micky April 1, 2010 at 9:31 am #

    If you give DY the same number of ab’s as Cuddy he’d have hit 18 hr. Low 20’s is not that much to ask considering what he had to go thru last year, his numbers were still better than Crede. If you look at what Cuddy did by the same age the guy is way ahead just hasn’t lived up to some blue sky expectations the media and bloggers put on him. Steals? Hasn’t Gardy stopped using the stolen base for the most part? Most players prime doesn’t kick in until they are 26-27 and people get tired of hearing it but he still is young in baseball years. Revere will be 22 this yr and hasn’t played above high A ball. Our other near ready prospects Hughes and Valencia are going to be 25 this yr with 1/2 yr of AAA. Not like we have a bunch of high production outfielders waiting at AAA to take his spot.

  14. Doofus April 1, 2010 at 10:00 am #

    .295/.320/.493 40 2b, 3 3b, and 16 HR, 12 SB.

  15. mike wants wins April 1, 2010 at 10:00 am #

    No chance he steals that many bases. The Twins don’t run much, I just don’t see that at all.

    Only 9 regular left fielders had a slugging percentage that high last year (according to fangraphs). Only 11 or so had an OBP that high. You think DY is going to be one of the 10 best hitting left fielders in the game this year? That seems a tad optimistic to me, given the last three years. It would be great, awesome, wonderful. But it does seem to be a stretch. As for his defense, I have no idea if he’ll be better or not, but I’d think losing weight has got to help.

    As for the cost, that’s been my issue this whole time. IF he becomes successful, how do you afford him, and Span and Mauer and the pitchers? IF he doesn’t become successful, well, that’s another month or two or three down the drain. Hopefully he’s awesome, and they have to make diffcult decision on him.

    • Micky April 1, 2010 at 10:53 am #

      I will always be happy for a player to be successful and become expensive. That means you have a good problem, a lot of good players you need to try and pay. We have for to long had the other problem of lots of boarderline players that weren’t worth much. (Ford, Tyner, Mohr, Kielty, Buchanan, Restovich, R. White)

  16. jimbo92107 April 1, 2010 at 12:18 pm #

    Part of Delmon’s challenge is that, in his spot in the batting order, pitchers can afford to throw him a lot of junk. If Delmon were batting 3rd (I know, just speculating), with Morneau behind him, then he’d see a lot more hittable pitches. That said, Delmon’s plate discipline has not developed much beyond “see ball, hit ball” to include much situational awareness. Like many talented hitters before him, Delmon must learn to lay off the outside curve ball in the dirt. He needs to learn to recognize when a pitcher is going to throw him a curve by the look in his eye, the way he stands on the mound, whatever subtle tip offs are available. Last year, Delmon got fooled so thoroughly by so many curve balls, he looked utterly clueless. The weird thing was, after missing two balls by a foot, he would casually smack a line drive off a two-strike count. Clueless thinking meets freakish ability. An odd combination.

  17. Kurt Kuehn April 1, 2010 at 1:05 pm #

    I think with this line-up, DY will be in a position where he can succeed. There really isn’t any pressure on him this year. Worst case= the Twins don’t offer, and he goes elsewhere. Probably for more money. I think the steals will be there. I think all the numbers may be low even.

  18. Joel Thingvall April 1, 2010 at 1:12 pm #

    Man, considering that Delmon will be batting in the lower three spots of the order. Well, if he gets the hits or on-base. But if you can get 25 HRS and 80+ RBI’s from your #7 or #8 hitter…whew!

    He has the power…

    the downside is that someone other than Nick Punto has to make 24-27 outs in a game…

  19. Jeff P April 1, 2010 at 2:54 pm #

    I was a little surprised at his numbers for last season, i was thinking it was worse that. As for this year, I think his power continues to develop but until he stops swinging at so many bad pitches, it hard to see him over .300.

    I will go with .290 BA – 20 HRs – 75 RBIs

  20. kb April 1, 2010 at 3:39 pm #

    .290/.330/.425 with 25 doubles, 3 triples, 20 home runs, 70 RBI and 10 SB.

  21. Mike April 1, 2010 at 3:50 pm #

    .302/.325/.472 28 doubles, 2 triples, 18 HRs, 95 RBIs, 6 SBs

  22. Bob April 1, 2010 at 5:13 pm #

    I am with you on your projections for Delmon. I think the SBs are definitely in reach with the weight loss. The Gardy & teammates comments this year bode well that he will get the ABs and they belief he is going to up his game.

  23. darin April 1, 2010 at 7:11 pm #

    Finally, there is someone out there who will give Delmon some respect. Now it’s up to him to live up to his potential. Where are all the Delmon Young bashers now to comment that he will be terrible.

  24. 8th inning guy April 2, 2010 at 8:48 pm #

    Delmon is perplexing in a way. A pitcher could roll a bowling ball up there on the first pitch and he would swing. Yet he can goes up the middle or to right field very instictively. I’m not so sure it matters. He needs to hit right away or he will lose time to thome in a matter of days. .285 15hrs 66rbi’s.

  25. Justin April 3, 2010 at 10:35 pm #

    Although I believe Delmon is going to have a big year comparative to years past, I love the options moving forward if he does not. I hope and do not think they will trade Wilson Ramos (especially for a closer!!!) it would be nice to have an above serviceable option for the 6 games or so Joe cannot catch each month and potentially more if Ramos performs up to the frenzied expectations. I believe this is a win on a number of ways.
    Most importantly as in insurance policy for a difficult position to fill in the event of injury to Joe. Keep Mauer in better health, suspecting he could accomplish even more at the plate if he can avoid some of the wear and tear on a catcher.
    Ramos and Mauer could platoon DH. If Gardy Isn’n comfortable with his catcher DH’ing he can keep a third catcher on the roster. Keep the best two out of Cuddyer, Young, Kubel, and current prospects and flip the rest for other areas of need. I am much more comfortable with the idea of filling an outfield hole as opposed to catcher in the event of injury.

  26. SamInMpls April 4, 2010 at 9:20 am #

    Delmon in 2010: .294|.316|.459 22 doubles 16 homers 6 stolen bases and terrible fielding.

  27. Stewie April 6, 2010 at 11:21 am #

    Ironically Young stole a base yesterday. I’d say that’s karma for everyone here that was predicting him to only steal 6 bases this season.

  28. trey April 22, 2010 at 12:10 pm #

    i love baseball and i would love some tickets and pretty please send me some

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