What about Risk?

5 Nov

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net

 

Yesterday may have been one of the busiest days of my life, and seemingly everything was really important, so I apologize for not blogging more. I am very happy that it is Friday and I look forward to a three-day weekend away. By the way, to all the deer hunters, good luck, but be safe. Not much more annoying than hearing about people’s hunting stories that involve drinking! So again, be safe!

I too infrequently post reader e-mails here, but I thought I’d quickly post a good one that I got from Luke W yesterday that I think is thought provoking. I happen to completely agree with it. What do you think?

I understand they can afford it but to give Lee a 120 million is ridiculous. He is 32 years old, he was throwing 88mph  and he got beat twice by what everybody says was a weak lineup.  Compare him and Barry Zito. Similar velocity, each have a Cy Young. Total wins before he went free agent Zito-102…Lee 102. Barry Zito never posted a WHIP above a 1.40 before he left Oakland. Lee has gone over a 1.40…three times. I say let the Yankees have him just be one more 100 million dollar pitcher that will never pitch a better season that before he went free agent.

I would add that there is a decent likelihood that it may take even a little more than $120 million to lock up the lefty Lee. I think this is a great point. There have not been many $100 million pitchers who have been terribly successful after signing their $100 million deals. Generally, they sign them when there are 30-32 years old which means that they go until the pitcher is 37-38. Most pitchers aren’t still good at that age. Mike Hampton. Kevin Brown. Zito. Johan Santana has already been experiencing arm issues since signing his six year, $137 million deal with the Mets. CC Sabathia has remained a top pitcher, so far, but he was also younger when he signed his big deal. Of course we don’t know what will happen. Teams have to take risks.

I will also be posting FB Picks for Week 9 shortly, so check back.  

What are your thoughts? And, please always feel free to e-mail me. I won’t always post them, but some create really interesting discussions. Of course, you can also leave comments here.

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6 Responses to “What about Risk?”

  1. TT November 5, 2010 at 10:22 am #

    I think he is on the mark. One of the advantages the Yankees have is that if they sign Lee for $120 million and it doesn’t work out it isn’t the end of the world. If the Twins made that kind of mistake it would hamstring them for a decade.

    It ought to be obvious from this year that far from spending all the money in their budget during the off-season, the Twins need to keep some money in reserve to fill holes that they don’t anticipate. Picking up guys like Fuentes and Capps wouldn’t have been possible if the Twins had already stretched themselves to the maximum.

    The Twins have a core of young players who will give them an increasing potential to win for several more years. Investing a huge amount in a pitcher who is very likely going to decline during that period makes no sense. With aging players, you have to run faster just to stay in place. I think that has even finally caught up with the Yankees to some extent. They have a lot of money committed to players who are getting worse each year.

  2. JimCrikket November 5, 2010 at 11:16 am #

    I remember going round and round on this issue when the Santana issue blew up. There were all sorts of articles posted looking at all the pitchers who had signed big contracts for 5+ years. Very, very few of them worked out for the team. In any isolated season, most of these pitchers can put together a $20 million season… maybe even a couple of them. But over a 5-6 year period, it’s a really bad gamble to expect pitchers (especially those who have passed their 30th birthday) to put up 3, 4, 5, 6 years in a row of seasons worth $20 million is folly. As TT said, the Yankees can afford to gamble because even when they lose their bets, they simply dig deeper in their wallets and bring in another guy. For virtually every other team, making that kind of deal is a sucker bet.

  3. mike wants wins November 5, 2010 at 1:39 pm #

    Core of young players? No young RF, 2B, DH or 1B. Mauer isn’t young, he’s in his prime. Valencia is 25 or 26. Span is a similar age. Not sure how old Hardy is.

    The is not some young core to build around, you have Young, Mauer and, um, I’m not sure who else you think you can count on for the next couple of years.

    As for the money, I suppose you can keep signing guys that are lower risk, for less money. You are less likely to get great players though. I’m not a fan of signing a guy that is over 30 for more than a few years, though.

  4. jb November 5, 2010 at 2:37 pm #

    I was on board for acquiring Lee for the stretch run, but to sign him long term now is pure folly. Hopefully reality will eventually sink in for pro sports and these ridiculous contracts will become a thing of the past, but I’m not holding my breath. The Twins recipe for success is to develop what we have and sign value when needed. To abandon that strategy will lead to the vast desert wasteland that was Twins baseball in the 70’s, early 80’s, and most of the 90’s. I’d much rather have a chance to compete every year than to blow the wad on overpriced old free agents and hamstring the organization for another decade.

  5. TT November 5, 2010 at 9:25 pm #

    Young Core:

    27 – Mauer, Capps, Duensing, Liriano,
    26 – Casilla, Valencia, Span, Mijares, Slowey
    25 – Young

    And the rest of the probable lineup next year is also mostly young: Morneau(29), Hardy(28), Kubel(28)

    The only everyday play over 30 likely to be back is Michael Cuddyer.

    The rotation has Baker (29) and Blackburn (28) back. Nathan is the only pitcher over 30 unless the Twins sign some of their free agents.

    That is a young core.

  6. LW November 6, 2010 at 4:53 pm #

    The Yankees for 15 years have been bailed out by their core. Now that core is reaching the end, so the Yankees spend to replace instead of develop, that never works. The Yankees are floating that Montero could be catching for the Yanks next year, that is bunk, they are trying to increase his trade value. He is a DH not a catcher. Novoa had a decent year but stuff wise he is a 4th starter. Hughes won like 18 games but he also got like 9 runs a game support. Joba was ruined and now they are talking about starting him again ?? i mean you have to be kdding me. Romine i will give them , he could be special.For a team that has their revenue to never be in the international market (except Cano) and never draft well is a joke. Throw in Cashmens record with free agent pitchers ie Jaret Wright, Pavano, Vasquez (TWICE) i mean cmon.

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