Early Observations

22 Sep

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net

Don’t Forget – The TwinsCentric Viewing Party will be on Saturday at Manitou Station in White Bear Lake during Game 1 of the Twins/Cleveland double header. Get there between 11:30 and 12:00, and stay through the game. 

Another quick posting today. I fell asleep writing early again last night. I’ve got about 20 minutes to write  before I run in to work, so I thought I would jot down some quick, early observations of some of the younger players on the Twins roster. To be fair, small sample means very little, whether the sample is positive or negative. Obviously a positive sample is much more memorable and fun than a negative small sample, but what happens over 50-60 plate appearances this September means little when it comes to long-term success.

It’s been hard to write of late. In fact, I was telling someone last night that I’ve enjoyed just sitting back and watching the young guys play, seeing what they do, seeing what they still need to work on. It doesn’t need to be analytical or statistical at this point, and that’s good. But here are some of the things that I have seen so far.

Chris Parmelee – He has made a terrific first impression on everyone. In my Twins Prospect Handbook, release last January, I ranked Parmelee as my #12 Twins prospect, and many predicted that he would have his breakout season in the Twins minor leagues this year. My reason for optimism was that I believe something clicked with him when he was demoted last May to Ft. Myers from New Britain. He figured out something. He cut down on the strikeouts and became a better all-around hitter. Some of the power he had shown early dropped, but if he could use the whole field more and not strikeout as much, that was a great start. The power is still there. I saw him play in the Arizona Fall League two years ago, and he was a big guy. He has lost more than the 15 pounds that people talk about. What I have seen so far with the Twins is a guy who knows the strike zone. He is willing to be patient at the plate, but when he takes a swing, it is not a singles swing at all. He swings hard. We’ve seen the two home runs, but he has hit a lot of line drives. He uses the whole field. He makes contact. (in other words, even if he was hitting .150, I would be impressed by the approach.) He ended this minor league season as my #10 Twins prospect, but he has made a strong impression. Again, it’s not the high batting average that has been impressive, although that is nice. It’s his impressive approach at the plate that is equal parts patience, contact, and willingness to swing out of his shoes. The defense at 1B has been shaky at times, as expected, but that’s an area he can improve. I think that he will begin the 2011 season in Rochester, and that he definitely should. But when he has done this September is show that if needed next season, he could come up and not just fill in, but be a good contributor.

Joe Benson – Benson was my #4 Twins prospect, and to this point, all of the reports about him appear to be true. He is a tremendous athlete, very strong, great arm, good power, tremendous speed. He also is one to strike out a lot, and his aggressiveness on the base paths and in the field have been on display, both positive and negative. He has shown some patience at the plate, but he has also seemingly fallen behind 0-2 many times because of it. The 4-4 night with two doubles and a triple shows the kind of potential that Benson has. 15 strikeouts and two walks in 50 plate appearances tells us that he still has some work to do, although that strikeout rate is only minimally higher than it was in New Britain. Benson will also start the 2012 season in Rochester, and it will be a good challenge for him. He will need to continue to work on contact, something he has worked hard on in the past as well. However, I think that the biggest observation in my mind is that reports of his talent and his potential have not at all been overblown. He has the ability to be an all-star. And, he has the ability to be a fan favorite because of his hustle and aggressiveness.

Brian Dinkelman – Singles Machine! Dinkelman was not in my Top 30 Twins prospects this year, and probably would not have been in the Top 50. That’s why I frequently remind people that just because I don’t rank a guy highly on a prospect list does not mean that he can not be a major league contributor. I love following prospects like this, guys who are not going to be super stars, but they just work their way up the system and get an opportunity. In all reality, Dinkelman came up after Labor Day because the Twins needed a body. He was going to be DFAd following the season, and no one would have claimed him, and he would have spent the 2012 season in Rochester (where he hit about .230 this year, by the way). However, at this point, would anyone really have a problem with Dinkelman maintaining his 40 man roster spot through the offseason (in place of Tolbert and if it doesn’t make a prospect get exposed to the Rule 5 draft)? If the Twins take him off the 40 man roster, I still don’t think anyone would claim him. However, he has the 20 singles, pretty much all through the 3.5 hole. He has been solid at 2B, and played most of the last two years in LF or RF. Not a bad utility type.

Rene Tosoni – In the last two years, I have consistently ranked Tosoni between my #9 and #12 prospect in the Twins system. After he missed more than half of the 2010 season with shoulder surgery while playing at AA, I mistakenly dropped him in my rankings. To my surprise, he began the 2011 season in Rochester, and he played very well. That is why, when the Twins first needed an outfielder this season, it was Tosoni that they turned to, not Ben Revere. He had just 19 games of AA under his belt, but he was in the big leagues. Now, I think it is fair to say that Tosoni has struggled to this point in the big leagues. He is a very patient hitter at the plate, and I think that he has found himself if a lot of bad counts. He has 40 strikeouts in just over 160 plate appearances. That’s actually not a terrible rate. He has shown power with three doubles and three home runs, long home runs. That’s the kind of thing that makes me very excited about Tosoni. I think far too many people have written off Tosoni at this point. I still believe that he can be a very good big leaguer. I always called him Kubel-lite, meaning I think his potential can be about a .280 hitter with 15-18 home runs in a full season. He is a very solid outfielder with a good arm. Like Kubel, Tosoni’s one weakness in the minor leagues was hitting left-handers. I think Tosoni would be a great platoon option in the outfield. I think he needs a little more time. The time he has received with the Twins has been valuable for him, but we have not yet seen what he can do.

Ben Revere – He has played a lot more, and the Twins love him. The Twins media (written and spoken) love him. Most Twins fans love him. And why not? He is exciting. He plays hard. He hustles down the line, and he makes some pretty incredible catches out in center field. I believe that he is going to be a solid big league player, but I think expecting anything more than a Juan Pierre-like career would be way too optimistic. In fact, if Revere posts Pierre-like numbers in his career, I will be impressed and a little surprised. He has been better of late, but his offensive game has been pretty horrible this year. His recent hot streak has elevated his on-base percentage to .310. His slugging percentage is just .297. We kept hearing that at some point, he would show power.  No, that’ won’t happen. Outfielders play in so far against him that he could get some gappers or occasionally hit one over their heads. Then we get to watch him run. He almost had an inside the park home run this year. Defensively, he has made some incredible catches, and his range is remarkable. His terrific speed has helped make up for taking some bad angles on baseballs. People always accuse me of not liking Revere. I ranked him as my #8 Twins prospect before the season, and that’s probably fair. He is what he is as a player. Batting average will be his money-maker. If he can hit .300 (as he did throughout the minors), he could post a .350 on base percentage. If he does that, he could steal 75 bases a year. He has stolen 33 bases (in 42 attempts) in 109 games this year with a .310 OBP. Again, I think that the reports on Revere have proven very accurate. He is very exciting, and he is going to get better. In fact, what he has done over the last 3 weeks shows why getting this playing time and experience in the big leagues is so important for all of these guys.

Liam Hendriks – Hendriks came to the Twins, already well over his innings pitched count from last year. He impressed in his debut, and he had a rough game against the Royals in his second start. His most recent start is probably a good indication of where Hendriks is right now. He gave up two runs in the first inning before recording an out, but he worked out of that and got through five innings having allowed just those two runs. He was one pitch away from completing six innings with two runs, but he threw a bad pitch and Alex Liddi tied up the game at four with a long home run. Again, he began this season at AA and pitched great, and then did well at AAA at times. He is up with the Twins because of all the numbers. If he wasn’t, he would most likely be getting ready to join Allan de San Miguel, James Beresford and Todd Van Steensel on the Australian Team at the World Cup in Panama. Hendriks was my #6 Twins prospect after he was selected (by me) as the Twins minor league pitcher of the year last year. He was the repeat choice for me this year. So, what have I seen? Reports of a fastball with movement that is 89-91 is accurate. He has even touched 93, which is good. His changeup can be very good. I like the break on his curveball. In reality, I have seen him pitch well, but consistency with all of those pitches needs to be a little better. We have seen batters where he throws three straight pitches right on the outside corner. We have seen sharp sliders off the outside corner. We have seen him get called strike threes on pitches on the inside corner. But we have also seen him hurt when he (like any pitcher) misses his spots. Hendriks needs another half-season at Rochester, I think. But I have seen more than enough to tell me that he can fit into the back of the Twins rotation as early as next year, and of all the pitchers that have been compared to Brad Radke in recent years, he might be the one that I think most closely resembles him as a pitcher.

Luke Hughes – He’s out of options, and I have no problem with him being a utility infielder and a right-handed bat off the bench. He can adequately play 3B, 2B and 1B, and he has shown good pop in his bat. I think we’ve seen that he probably isn’t a regular at any position, but he can contribute to the team and should play fairly frequently.

Trevor Plouffe – Like Hughes, Plouffe will be out of options next season, so he will have to make the team. He has certainly had his struggles at SS at times, but he’s also gone through semi-long stretches of adequacy there. I think he can be a well below defensive SS and an average to slightly above average offensive SS. I don’t think he’ll get that opportunity with the Twins. Like Hughes, I think he can adequately play the infield positions, and even some in the corner outfield positions. Like JJ Hardy, he is really non-fast. I think he can hit in the big leagues, despite his struggles in September. Again, probably not a big league regular, at least not with the Twins, but he should have his bat in the lineup quite a bit!     

If you have any questions or comments or observations, please feel free to discuss in the Comments section.


8 Responses to “Early Observations”

  1. mike wants wins September 22, 2011 at 11:15 am #

    Since I’m trying to be more positive on the interwebs this week, I’ll just say I hope Hendriks is in the majors next year, because I think he’s a legit 3/4 type.

  2. Shane Wahl September 22, 2011 at 12:30 pm #

    Excellent rundown of all of these guys. I do think that a choice might have to be made between Hughes and Plouffe next year and maybe the Twins could get some kind of value in return for one of them. I guess if neither Cuddyer or Kubel come back, Nishioka heads back to Japan, and Morneau is hurt/retired, then both should stick around. I just don’t see both of them being up in the big leagues without one of them being a regular everyday guy. Maybe Ray Chang could get a chance since he appears to be able to play 3b/SS/2b?

    • Mr. Ed September 22, 2011 at 6:12 pm #

      No to Ray Chang.
      Get a real ML shortstop in here, get Plouffe work at multiple positions (start him at 2B)and say goodbye to Matt Tolbert.

      And let’s hope Yoshi decided to save face and go back to Japan and not return. One of the worst decisions by the front office EVER.

      You have to keep Hughes around because Casilla has never played more than 100 games in a season.

      They gave up a good middle infield for this mess. One of the big reasons this year was so bad. Now they have to rebuild him.

  3. Mr. Ed September 22, 2011 at 6:10 pm #

    Nothing on Revere’s weak arm? Joe Benson needs to get more CF time. Revere is a LF at best.He may make great catches, but how many bases is he giving up with that weak arm?

  4. Mark Liveringhouse September 22, 2011 at 11:23 pm #

    I am very pleased with what Chris Parmalee has shown. I have always rated Parmalee ahead of Joe Benson (for what that matters) because of his strike zone judgement and raw power potential. (Not that I don’t like Benson as a prospect). Parmalee seemed to me to have an approach that might work better in the major leagues were the pitchers are more consistent than in the minors (Denard Spann is another case of this phenomena in my opinion). That is, with most major league pitchers you know the ball is going to be around the plate most of the time and a good mental approach will pay dividends. WIth less consistent minor league pitchers, the ball may not be where they want it, but that confounds a hitter like Parmalee who is trying to hit the ball hard in a certain spot (where it should be). More athletic hitters like Benson can make more contact because they are quicker, but do not walk as much and strike out more with somewhat less power.

    I also think that the Twins need to really evaluate their minor league approach this offseason. If Morneau is really done, then the Twins will literally have only 2.5 established MLB hitters: Mauer, Kubel, and Spann. Every other position is completely open and we have almost zero established depth at the major leagues. If this is the case, then I think we need to turn the “rush” button on for the minor leagues.

    I know this is not the “Twins Way”, but to claim that this is a long established method ignores the most succesful period of Twins history were the core of that team was “rushed” to the major leagues, paid their dues, and then became Champions. Following the modern Twins minor league development patterns, Kent Hrbek would not have reached the major leagues until around 1984 or 85, or right around the year he placed 2nd in the AL MVP voting. Kirby went Rookie ball to A+ to 80 ABs in AAA to the Majors. Gaetti went Rk to A- to AA/majors. Seemed to work well then.

  5. mike wants wins September 23, 2011 at 9:28 am #

    John Sickels has an article on Parmalee on SBNation minorleagueball….

  6. Han Joelo September 24, 2011 at 1:59 pm #

    I like what I’ve seen from Parmalee so far. Watching the broadcast of the Yankees’ game, their announcers described New Britain as being quite cavernous, so maybe alot of those doubles translate to homers. At any rate, I think he is on the team for good, at the expense of Kubel.

    Revere is a unique player. I get sick of hearing the Juan Pierre comps. He may not be a prototypical LFer, but he is the quintessential piranha.

    Dinkelman is just a classic Twins Organizational player.

    Benson looks like he needs some seasoning at AAA, but he’s fun to watch. Gladdenesque.

    Liam Hendriks will be a good one–not overpowering, perhaps, but he’ll start a game 1 playoff at some point in his career.

    I sure hope Plouffe and Hughes get their chance–with the Twins. Not stars, maybe, but they are both on the cusp of being good players.


  1. Friday Links-N-Thinks | Minnesota Sports Zone - September 23, 2011

    […] The Twins have used a lot of prospects in the closing weeks and Seth Stohs gave his early impressions of the crew. […]

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