Twins Arbitration Scenarios

15 Jan

also available at www.SethSpeaks.net -

Major League players with less than six years of service time and more than three years of service time are eligible for salary arbitration. As we all know, there are a bunch of Super-2 arbitration-eligible players as well each year. On Tuesday, arbitration numbers will be exchanged. The teams will say how much they are offering to the player, and the player and his agent will submit the value that they think they should receive. Of course, in most cases, the team and the player come up with a value somewhere in the middle and numbers never get exchanged.

When the offseason began, and TwinsCentric was working on its Offseason GM Handbook, the Twins had eight arbitration-eligible players on their roster. Since the end of the season, there have been a few changes:

  • Phil Dumatrait – Was Designated for Assignment and removed from the 40 man roster. He became a free agent but returned to the Twins on a minor league contract. That means, he is no longer eligible for arbitration.
  • Jason Repko – Was Designated for Assignment and removed from the 40 man roster. He became a free agent but has not yet signed with another organization.
  • Matt Tolbert – Was Designated for Assignment and removed from the 40 man roster. He became a free agent but has not yet signed with another organization.
  • Jose Mijares – Was non-tended last month by the Twins. Less than a week later, he signed with the Kansas City Royals.
  • Kevin Slowey – Was traded to the Colorado Rockies in December.

That leaves the Twins with three arbitration-eligible players. The Twins will likely attempt to sign all three before Tuesday’s deadline. It is also possible they are working on multi-year deals with one or more of them. Here they are:

1.)     Alexi Casilla – In 2011, the 2B/SS made $700,000 in his first year of arbitration. In the Offseason GM Handbook, TwinsCentric predicted that he would get $2.5 million in arbitration. If I were to place my bet, I think it will be closer to $1.5 million.

2.)     Glen Perkins – In 2011, the lefty reliever made $865,000 in his first year of arbitration. TwinsCentric projected him to make $1.8 million, and I think that is about right. I also believe that the Twins may look to lock up Perkins for three years (to buy out one year of free agency). Perkins may be hesitant to sign a long-term deal knowing that there is a chance he will get some time as Twins’ closer this year, and closers make a bunch more money. However, if he wants to stay with the Twins, it’s possible that he could be signed in the neighborhood of three years and $8 million.

3.)     Francisco Liriano – In 2011, Liriano made $4.3 million. Despite a frustrating season, he will likely get a raise. TwinsCentric predicted that he would be awarded $6 million, but I think it will be closer to $5 million. A year ago, I said that the Twins should sign him to a 4 year, $40 million deal. At this point, I’d be very hesitant to give Liriano a multi-year deal. However, if they are at all interested, now is the time to do it. This would be a buy low scenario. Could the Twins now have the talented (but enigmatic) Liriano to a three year, $18 million now? If so, would you consider it?

We will learn quite a bit before Tuesday’s deadline. Many years the Twins get all their arbitration situations figured out before numbers are even exchanged. This year, the Twins have three very interesting situations.

What do you think will happen? Leave your thoughts in the Comments Section!

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5 Responses to “Twins Arbitration Scenarios”

  1. Greg January 16, 2012 at 1:09 pm #

    Perkins and Liriano get multi year deals.. Makes sense now than later.

    Win Twins!

  2. Jim H January 16, 2012 at 2:38 pm #

    I would be very surprised if the Twins signed Liriano to a multi-year deal. It really doesn’t make much sense for either party. If he pitches well this year, Liriano could easily command a multi-year contract over $10 million. There is no way the Twins offer anything at all comparable to that. Liriano will want to roll the dice and hope that he will pitch well this year.

  3. Jim H January 16, 2012 at 2:43 pm #

    I meant a multi-year contract for over $10 million a year. Clearly the Twins wouldn’t offer anything like that, even if they were willing to go multi-year. Given Liriano’s inconsistency, I doubt if they would offer a multi-year contract of any sort.

  4. Paul Pleiss (@BaseballPirate) January 16, 2012 at 11:24 pm #

    I’d like to see the Twins lock up Liriano for 3 or more years, but as the other commenters have said, I don’t think it makes sense for Frankie or the Twins. If Liriano can regain anything close to his past glory this season he’ll make a bundle next year. If he continues to pitch at his 2011 level, the Twins buying low would still be an over buy.

    -Pirate

  5. scot January 18, 2012 at 12:24 pm #

    Liriano has to prove he can pitch consistantly well first but he could be trade bait if Twins struggle again this season. Lock Perkins up for 3 years.

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